A different set up for this
second set of rankings I’m not going to break it down by tier but by a handful of
biggest differences I still have with ADP as we get to the middle of the
preseason. Along with the ranks I’m also posting for the first time my
projections. Quarterback this year is much more settled with the lack of high-end
talent compared to last season when we were watching camp battles with a
handful of rookies.
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
Att.
|
Pass
Yards
|
Pass
TDs
|
INT
|
Rush
|
Rush
Yards
|
Rush
TDs
|
Pos.
ADP
|
|
Elite Tier (1-3)
|
||||||||||
|
QB1
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
KC
|
579
|
4945
|
37
|
10
|
58
|
244
|
2
|
1
|
|
QB2
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
GB
|
575
|
4275
|
35
|
6
|
42
|
218
|
2
|
3
|
|
QB3
|
Deshaun Watson
|
HOU
|
503
|
3998
|
30
|
12
|
97
|
589
|
3
|
2
|
|
Very Good Tier (4-8)
|
||||||||||
|
QB4
|
Russell Wilson
|
SEA
|
495
|
4083
|
27
|
9
|
58
|
328
|
3
|
10
|
|
QB5
|
Cam Newton
|
CAR
|
503
|
3959
|
24
|
13
|
96
|
495
|
5
|
8
|
|
QB6
|
Matt Ryan
|
ATL
|
568
|
4720
|
30
|
12
|
37
|
111
|
1
|
5
|
|
QB7
|
Baker Mayfield
|
CLE
|
536
|
4224
|
29
|
11
|
45
|
151
|
2
|
4
|
|
QB8
|
Andrew Luck
|
IND
|
575
|
4264
|
32
|
16
|
42
|
200
|
2
|
6
|
|
Very Good with Questions Tier (9-17)
|
||||||||||
|
QB9
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
PIT
|
636
|
4678
|
29
|
18
|
28
|
82
|
1
|
13
|
|
QB10
|
Dak Prescott
|
DAL
|
505
|
3919
|
31
|
11
|
70
|
350
|
6
|
16
|
|
QB11
|
Jared Goff
|
LAR
|
574
|
4700
|
32
|
13
|
37
|
83
|
2
|
11
|
|
QB12
|
Lamar Jackson
|
BAL
|
438
|
3572
|
17
|
9
|
114
|
760
|
5
|
17
|
|
QB13
|
Carson Wentz
|
PHI
|
511
|
3891
|
29
|
12
|
44
|
166
|
1
|
7
|
|
QB14
|
Jameis Winston
|
TB
|
541
|
4379
|
33
|
20
|
53
|
221
|
3
|
14
|
|
QB15
|
Josh Allen
|
BUF
|
566
|
3643
|
24
|
24
|
75
|
500
|
5
|
22
|
|
QB16
|
Kirk Cousins
|
MIN
|
562
|
4554
|
30
|
15
|
49
|
147
|
2
|
19
|
|
QB17
|
Kyler Murray
|
ARI
|
561
|
4104
|
26
|
11
|
72
|
378
|
4
|
12
|
|
Old Good, Unproven Good, or Yep He’s
Fine Tier (18-25)
|
||||||||||
|
QB18
|
Philip Rivers
|
LAC
|
545
|
4347
|
32
|
14
|
19
|
31
|
0
|
18
|
|
QB19
|
Drew Brees
|
NO
|
523
|
4227
|
30
|
13
|
24
|
38
|
1
|
9
|
|
QB20
|
Tom Brady
|
NE
|
569
|
4052
|
30
|
10
|
20
|
35
|
1
|
15
|
|
QB21
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
SF
|
518
|
4164
|
29
|
14
|
32
|
36
|
1
|
21
|
|
QB22
|
Sam Darnold
|
NYJ
|
478
|
3550
|
26
|
21
|
56
|
176
|
1
|
24
|
|
QB23
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
CHI
|
514
|
3725
|
25
|
14
|
54
|
331
|
2
|
20
|
|
QB24
|
Matt Stafford
|
DET
|
553
|
4220
|
27
|
15
|
24
|
82
|
1
|
25
|
|
QB25
|
Derek Carr
|
OAK
|
556
|
4236
|
30
|
14
|
27
|
76
|
1
|
23
|
|
The… I Waited Too Long to Draft a
QB Tier (26-33)
|
||||||||||
|
QB26
|
Marcus Mariota
|
TEN
|
380
|
2847
|
19
|
11
|
71
|
415
|
4
|
26
|
|
QB27
|
Dwayne Haskins
|
WAS
|
446
|
3261
|
27
|
10
|
21
|
68
|
1
|
31
|
|
QB28
|
Nick Foles
|
JAC
|
483
|
3214
|
15
|
10
|
54
|
159
|
2
|
27
|
|
QB29
|
Andy Dalton
|
CIN
|
534
|
3799
|
26
|
15
|
22
|
70
|
1
|
28
|
|
QB30
|
Joe Flacco
|
DEN
|
375
|
2725
|
20
|
13
|
14
|
33
|
1
|
30
|
|
QB31
|
Eli Manning
|
NYG
|
445
|
3174
|
21
|
16
|
15
|
26
|
0
|
29
|
|
QB32
|
Josh Rosen
|
MIA
|
345
|
2619
|
14
|
17
|
21
|
128
|
1
|
33
|
|
QB33
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick
|
MIA
|
227
|
1724
|
10
|
7
|
17
|
77
|
1
|
33
|
|
Has an ADP, Not in Top 6 Tiers
|
||||||||||
|
QB35
|
Daniel Jones
|
NYG
|
108
|
774
|
5
|
4
|
10
|
36
|
1
|
32
|
Five Notable Things
At Quarterback there aren’t
as many notable differences as other positions but there are still a few things
that caught the eye. QB is pretty well settled heading into the season with all
but the Miami Job being settled. That said there are a handful of players that
are a half tier (6 spots) apart and of those Wilson being 6 spots lower in ADP
is the most puzzling. Yes, Wilson’s 2018 was incredibly, unsustainably efficient
and Doug Baldwin has been released and retired, but Lockett was a huge part of
Wilson’s efficiency, Jaron Brown and David Moore have shown to be solid options
if not spectacular, and DK Metcalf adds at worst a Ted Ginn-esque deep threat to
stretch defenses. There’s also the crutch argument (h/t Christopher Harris) that
the Seahawks defense, sans Earl Thomas should regress, and the offense will
need to score more to win games. The difference between me and ADP on Wilson is
even more confusing to me when we look at the ranking of Drew Brees. Brees also
had an incredibly efficient season, in which his team ran the ball more and a “young”
(Lockett is a couple years Thomas’ senior) receiver had a high level of TD efficiency.
I don’t think Brees is bad, but he is aging, and four consecutive seasons his
arm/production has leveled off late in the season. I think Brees profiles much more
like a Rivers in terms of production than he compares to Wilson. Tier three is
also home to two QBs that will be inextricably linked through draft class,
conference, and the ways in which the narrative is shaped around them. I’m not
going to relitigate the stats from last year as it’s not helpful or good for my
health. That said both have incredible upside because of their rushing
abilities. I have them scaling back Lamar Jackson’s rushing to 114 rushes compared
to the 147 he had last season in his handful of starts. As for Allen I think McDermott,
et. al. in Buffalo want him running less than last year and improving as a more
traditional passer and so I have him running 14 times less than in his 12 games
last year. So, my estimates are pretty conservative on both from a rushes and yards
per carry standpoint and my rankings still wind up six spots higher on Allen
and five spots higher on Jackson than the ADP right now.
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