2020 Fantasy Football - 2nd Ranks - Running Backs

 This new set of rankings certainly has been interesting to write about and look at from a me and them perspective as well as trying hard not to focus too much on players I know I rambled about last time (I fail at this multiple times). This new set of ranks is based around my newest set of projections (new projection here) which saw some changes due to camp news, injuries, and COVID but also, mostly, by how I imagine the season will play out and how teams will play.

 

Let’s talk about my projections for a minute as an issue that has been brough up by a couple people really shows itself here and in my WR ranks. That issue… What to do with rookies? For me most of them will be relatively low compared to ADP, there are exceptions but not many. For the most part this is due to a couple of factors exacerbated by an unorthodox offseason. Rookies need time and reps to be prepared and didn’t get as many, thus a steeper learning curve and rookies having a tougher time breaking into meaningful roles and playing time, in 2020. So, a player like CEH should be pretty darn good because he’s not blocked on the roster and fits well into the system. Akers and Taylor, whom I like quite a bit, are behind players that have been on their rosters for at least a season and have produced or have roles they are expected to fill. All in all, that’s generally why I’m lower on rookies. Also, I hate your favorite player.

 

Column Key – Player (Duh), Rank (My Positional Rank), Team (Duh, again), FP (Fantasy Points), Pos ADP (Positional ADP), Diff (Difference between Rank and Pos ADP), 1^st Rank (My First Rank), Diff (Difference between this rank and my 1^st rank), 1^st Pos ADP (First Positional ADP), and Diff (Difference between Pos ADP and 1^st Pos ADP)

 

Player	Rank	Team	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	1st Rank	Diff	1st Pos ADP	Diff
The Christian McCaffrey Tier (1)
Christian McCaffrey	1	CAR	422	1	0	1	0	1	0
No changes but it bothers me that I feel completely comfortable with my projections when it comes to his importance in the offense, but also his fantasy output is so far above any other RB in my projections that I can’t completely rationalize it away that he will being such a significant outlier once again.
The Elite Tier (2-4)
Saquon Barkley	2	NYG	292	2	0	2	0	2	0
Alvin Kamara	3	NO	317	4	-1	4	-1	4	0
Ezekiel Elliott	4	DAL	316	3	1	3	1	3	0
No real surprises here with nothing changing in mine or ADPs top 4 as a whole (but flipping Kamara & Elliott).
A Very Good and Deep Tier (5-16)
Dalvin Cook	5	MIN	275	5	0	10	-5	5	0
Aaron Jones	6	GB	274	14	-8	5	1	13	1
Joe Mixon	7	CIN	244	8	-1	11	-4	7	1
Miles Sanders	8	PHI	264	7	1	6	2	11	-4
Nick Chubb	9	CLE	251	12	-3	14	-5	8	4
Josh Jacobs	10	LVR	250	11	-1	12	-2	10	1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	11	KC	254	9	2	41	-30	14	-5
Derrick Henry	12	TEN	260	6	6	9	3	6	0
Austin Ekeler	13	LAC	286	13	0	7	6	12	1
Le'Veon Bell	14	NYJ	271	17	-3	8	6	18	-1
Todd Gurley	15	ATL	241	15	0	13	2	15	0
James Conner	16	PIT	252	19	-3	17	-1	21	-2
At the top of this tier Cook I just wanted to not why Cook moved up 5 spots and it’s because I had the possibility of him holding out weighted into his projection and it weighted it down just a bit. He’s in camp, and although contract talks have been sluggish, he doesn’t have a whole lot of leverage while he’s on his rookie deal. I’m still higher on Jones than consensus, he’s the lead back in an offense who’s entire offseason seems to signal it wants to run more, and even if he sees touchdown regression he should still be the main back in this Green Bay offense. My last relatively big difference with ADP in this tier is Derrick Henry and it centers around my belief that neither he nor the offense can be as efficient as last season while also still being good and useful. Biggest riser in my ranks from this tier is obviously CEH who now looks set on the precipice of a great opportunity as a rookie, moved up 30 ranks, while I adjusted my ranks for Ekeler and Bell to the top of the RB2s instead of them being mid-RB1s.
The Guys with Solid Roles and Questions (17-26)
Kenyan Drake	17	ARI	216	10	7	25	-8	9	1
Melvin Gordon	18	DEN	224	21	-3	16	2	17	4
Chris Carson	19	SEA	216	20	-1	18	1	19	1
Leonard Fournette	20	JAC	200	16	4	15	5	16	0
Raheem Mostert	21	SF	208	26	-5	21	0	24	2
Devin Singletary	22	BUF	198	23	-1	23	-1	23	0
Kareem Hunt	23	CLE	225	29	-6	22	1	29	0
David Johnson	24	HOU	213	18	6	24	0	20	-2
Adrian Peterson	25	WAS	204	52	-27	51	-26	58	-6
David Montgomery	26	CHI	211	24	2	20	6	25	-1
I’m still low on Drake, I’m 8 spots higher than before, but still see him as a solid RB2 and not a low-end RB1. I’m also 26 spots higher on Peterson, and 27 spots higher than ADP, but that’s most likely due to this set of ADP coming right after the Guice news and not completely catching up yet. Montgomery moved down because I just like others upside better but if you’re looking for a high floor option as an RB3 he’s perfect.
The Starters, Receiving, and High-End Backups Tiers (27-40)
James White	27	NE	184	32	-5	27	0	35	-3
Tarik Cohen	28	CHI	201	34	-6	26	2	38	-4
Jonathan Taylor	29	IND	177	22	7	29	0	22	0
Tevin Coleman	30	SF	145	40	-10	31	-1	44	-4
Duke Johnson	31	HOU	173	49	-18	35	-4	51	-2
Kerryon Johnson	32	DET	181	39	-7	28	4	40	-1
D'Andre Swift	33	DET	153	27	6	39	-6	26	1
Matt Breida	34	MIA	164	36	-2	36	-2	42	-6
Boston Scott	35	PHI	156	48	-13	40	-5	50	-2
Phillip Lindsey	36	DEN	159	38	-2	32	4	41	-3
Latavius Murray	37	NO	152	41	-4	37	0	46	-5
LeSean McCoy	38	TB	177	62	-24	73	-35	50	12
Alexander Mattison	39	MIN	144	45	-6	33	6	45	0
Antonio Gibson	40	WAS	170	44	-4	62	-22	48	-4
There are three standouts who I’m at least a full RB tier higher on than ADP. Let’s start with the RB I just can’t quit, Duke Johnson. I have Duke for 10 more rushes and a handful more targets than last year and somehow have ended up 18 spots higher than ADP and I can’t figure out why. I have him having an almost identical season to last year and that’s not fantastical but it’s a solid RB3 and most likely not going to have to draft him until your RB4/5. Boston Scott sits 13 spots higher in my ranking and that has everything to do with I don’t think his usage last year was an accident and although I think Sanders takes a bigger role overall, Scott should produce enough with around a dozen targets+carries a game. Lastly, LeSean McCoy and what might be my worst rank in this ranking or might make me a fucking genius. McCoy was brought into a depth chart with Jones and Vaughn, and still remains listed as the RB 1 on the depth chart. Maybe that changes but it’s been left that way long enough to make me think it’s intentional and I think we all know well enough not to take coaches to seriously when they talk in the preseason. And while I think being two full RB tiers higher on him is probably foolish, I also think where he is in ADP is equally as foolish. Antonio Gibson is the biggest non-McCoy change from my original ranks he moved up 22 spots after Guice left the Washington Football Team. I kept him at the bottom of the tier because I think there’s real doubt about whether Love or him will be closer to a true number two behind Adrian Peterson. I love Gibson, thought he was more WR than RB pre-draft, but I still think he’s a fantastic project.
The Plug Your Nose and Pick One Tier (41-59)
Nyheim Hines	41	IND	127	54	-13	42	-1	52	2
Jordan Howard	42	MIA	117	33	9	52	-10	36	-3
Marlon Mack	43	IND	120	35	8	46	-3	39	-4
JK Dobbins	44	BAL	114	31	13	43	1	30	1
Sony Michel	45	NE	117	37	8	30	15	37	0
Mark Ingram	46	BAL	110	25	21	40	6	28	-3
Tony Pollard	47	DAL	107	47	0	44	3	49	-2
Ronald Jones II	48	TB	132	30	18	38	10	33	-3
Jalen Richard	49	LVR	136	78	-29	85	-36	74	4
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	50	TB	108	43	7	38	12	32	11
Darrell Henderson	51	LAR	119	46	5	45	6	47	-1
Cam Akers	52	LAR	98	28	24	55	-3	27	1
Lamar Miller	53	NE	106	82	-29	101	-48	82	0
Jaylen Samuels	54	PIT	124	82	-28	53	1	70	12
Chris Thompson	55	JAC	103	72	-17	58	-3	75	-3
Joshua Kelley	56	LAC	104	57	-1	49	7	61	-4
Bryce Love	56	WAS	105	66	-10	79	-23	82	-16
Malcolm Brown	58	LAR	107	82	-24	50	8	82	0
Darwin Thompson	59	KC	114	82	-23	68	-9	78	4
Let’s talk about players that I’m at two tiers different from ADP, and Darwin Thompson (23 spots off). Let’s start in LA where I think the Rams backfield is going to be a fucking mess. I’m two RB tiers lower on Akers, two higher on Brown, and about equal to the ADP of Henderson. And I’m ok with that. I think they all have a role, I think they will all look like the back to own, and I think ultimately I will end up with Henderson the most this year, Akers the most next year, and Brown almost never which seems odd, but oh well. This is the tier where it starts to get tricky with ADP only going so deep so let’s talk about the players that I have in this tier that are undrafted in ADP. Thos players are, in order Lamar Miller, Jaylen Samuels, Darwin Thompson, and Malcolm Brown (already addressed). Miller had just landed in NE when I pulled ADP data and he’s talented, I like him, and think it’s him or Harris for the “lead” role in NE. Samuels gets lost in the Pittsburgh shuffle and it seems to be completely about Anthony McFarland. I’m willing to admit that that’s a real concern for next season, but this year I’ll take the player who had roughly 60 rushes and 60 targets and I believe would be the lead option if James Conner goes down. Darwin Thompson, my little back crush heading into last season didn’t do much last season, but he still has receiving game upside and is currently second on the depth chart with at least receiving game stand alone value. Lastly Jalen Richard is going to be the number two in Oakland at least for one more year it would seem and the Raiders keep indicating they refuse to use Jacobs in both phases of the game, despite his Alabama calling card being his passing game work. It’s baffling, whoever ends up RB2 in Las Vegas is worth a lottery ticket.
The Tier Where I Make You Mad About Exactly One Player Ranked Too Low (60-71)
Chase Edmonds	60	ARI	87	50	10	57	3	55	-5
Darynton Evans	61	TEN	88	58	3	63	-2	57	1
Zack Moss	62	BUF	88	42	20	61	1	43	-1
Rashaad Penny	63	SEA	86	69	-6	56	7	59	10
Jerick McKinnon	64	SF	75	67	-3	178	-114	67	0
Ryquell Armstead	65	JAC	69	65	0	59	6	63	2
Justin Jackson	66	LAC	99	53	13	54	12	54	-1
Lynn Bowden	67	LVR	91	68	-1	69	-2	73	-5
Gio Bernard	68	CIN	93	82	-14	67	1	82	0
Jamaal Williams	69	GB	89	63	6	66	3	60	3
AJ Dillon	70	GB	80	51	19	65	5	53	-2
Carlos Hyde	71	SEA	75	60	11	101	-30	64	-4
For me that player is Edmonds, I hate me for being this low on him. For ADP that player is Zack Moss, and I have a feeling for may out there that player will be AJ Dillon. I think Edmonds should steal carries from Drake but I also thought Drake’s projection was far too low, therefore, I adjusted the Cardinals Run-Pass split, and gave Drake a bit more carry shares and ultimately Edmonds stays a bit lower. Zack Moss comes in to feel the void left by Frank Gore, or at least most of the carries vacated by Gore. I believe that Singletary picks up more snaps and carries, gets a little luckier with TDs, and continues to be the main back if not a true feature back in front of Moss and limits his value. Lastly, Dillon. Jones is the better player, established in Green Bay, and is the better player. I think it’s a weird RB2 by committee situation in Green Bay with Williams being more angled towards receiving duties and Dillon as a between the tackles kind of player. I don’t think he’s bad, I just don’t see the year 1 value. Psst, Jerick McKinnon is healthy, still on the 49ers, and probably the third back in the offense. And he’s being drafted as an RB6 that’s incredibly inexpensive for a player that could possibly have RB2 upside if he got the main role.
The “These Guys Might Matter” Tier (72-83)
Dion Lewis	72	NYG	75	82	-10	64	8	82	0
Rex Burkhead	73	NE	48	80	-7	60	13	76	4
Benny Snell Jr	74	PIT	67	82	-8	72	2	82	0
Frank Gore	75	NYJ	69	82	-7	71	4	82	0
Brian Hill	76	ATL	66	82	-6	74	2	82	0
Gus Edwards	77	BAL	59	82	-5	70	7	82	0
Reggie Bonnafon	78	CAR	55	82	-4	75	3	82	0
Ito Smith	79	ATL	54	73	6	78	1	62	11
TJ Yeldon	80	BUF	53	82	-2	84	-4	82	0
Eno Benjamin	81	ARI	65	71	10	77	4	81	-10
Corey Clement	82	PHI	62	82	0	76	6	82	0
Lamical Perine	83	NYJ	59	77	6	148	-65	69	8
Weirdly this tier is relatively on point compared to ADP. And outside for Perine becoming RB3 for the Jets, no one has really made a big move in my ranks or ADP.
The Lotter Ticket Tier (84-107)
Darrel Williams	84	KC	34	82	2	113	-29	82	0
Damien Harris	85	NE	26	55	30	94	-9	65	-10
Qadree Ollison	86	ATL	24	82	4	109	-23	82	0
Anthony McFarland Jr	87	PIT	25	64	23	88	-1	56	8
Kyle Juszczyk	88	SF	45	82	6	101	-13	82	0
Dontrell Hilliard	89	CLE	45	82	7	83	6	82	0
Elijah McGuire	90	KC	46	82	8	97	-7	82	0
Ameer Abdullah	91	MIN	41	82	9	82	9	82	0
Devontae Booker	92	LVR	33	82	10	12	80	82	0
Peyton Barber	93	WAS	30	70	23	132	-39	82	-12
Bo Scarbrough	94	DET	39	82	12	80	14	82	0
Jeffery Wilson	95	SF	28	82	13	81	14	82	0
Rodney Anderson	96	CIN	21	82	14	95	1	82	0
Michael Boone	97	MIN	28	82	15	89	8	82	0
Trayveon Williams	98	CIN	23	82	16	93	5	82	0
DeeJay Dallas	99	SEA	20	76	23	86	13	68	8
Ty Johnson	100	DET	29	82	18	87	13	82	0
Justice Hill	101	BAL	26	81	20	91	10	72	9
Kalen Ballage	102	MIA	25	82	20	98	4	82	0
Myles Gaskin	103	MIA	20	82	21	96	7	82	0
Wayne Gallman	104	NYG	19	82	22	116	-12	82	0
C.J. Ham	105	MIN	29	82	23	176	-71	82	0
Ryan Nall	106	CHI	34	82	24	105	1	82	0
Jordan Scarlett	107	CAR	18	82	25	104	3	82	0
Harris could prove me wrong, but I think the addition of Miller and the continued existence of Rex Burkhead make it difficult for me to trust him. I will take a lottery ticket if he falls though. We talked about McFarland above, but he highlights a thing I’m generally on this year, which is rookies struggling due to lack of an offseason. It doesn’t mean I hate these players but merely that I’m more conservative on them because of lack of reps and time to grow into the roles they might have had with a normal offseason. Also, I wasn’t as high on McFarland coming into the draft as some and that’s going to obviously have an effect on the impact I think he can make in 2020. Lastly, a pair of players at different ends of their of their careers. Both DeeJay Dallas and Peyton Barber are post RB 90 for me while also being drafted in the 70s, which is to say people think they have a chance to be their teams lead back. They both are stuck behind backs that can eat up a lot of carries, Dallas is stuck behind the younger back, Barber is behind a greater number of talented players. Both have obstacles, both technically have a path, neither excites me.
The Eh… Well… Maybe… I Hope I Don’t Need Anyone from This Tier (108-123)
Jordan Wilkins	108	IND	17	82	26	107	1	82	0
Devine Ozigbo	109	JAC	12	82	27	111	-2	82	0
Royce Freeman	110	DEN	12	82	28	106	4	80	2
Bruce Anderson	111	IND	10	82	29	139	-28	82	0
Kenneth Dixon	112	NYJ	10	82	30	171	-59	82	0
Dare Ogunbowale	113	TB	7	82	31	73	40	82	0
Dalyn Dawkins	114	TEN	18	82	32	168	-54	82	0
Ty Montgomery	115	NO	15	82	33	120	-5	82	0
Dexter Williams	116	GB	13	82	34	110	6	82	0
Patrick Laird	117	MIA	11	82	35	108	9	82	0
Karan Higdon	118	HOU	9	82	36	114	4	82	0
DeAndre Washington	119	KC	9	59	60	172	-53	82	-23
Buddy Howell	120	HOU	17	82	38	115	5	82	0
Mikey Daniel	121	ATL	12	82	39	158	-37	82	0
Javon Leake	122	NYG	10	82	40	159	-37	82	0
D'Ernest Johnson	123	CLE	9	82	41	118	5	82	0