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Wednesday, August 26, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football - 2nd Ranks - Wide Receivers

 This new set of rankings certainly has been interesting to write about and look at from a me and them perspective as well as trying hard not to focus too much on players I know I rambled about last time (I fail at this multiple times). This new set of ranks is based around my newest set of projections (new projection here) which saw some changes due to camp news, injuries, and COVID but also, mostly, by how I imagine the season will play out and how teams will play.

 

I usually have the biggest differences in my ranks at WR, it’s where I’m willing to take my biggest risks and take a stand on players that I believe in. It’s also the position with the most players, a bunch of depth chart shenanigans, and just pure randomness. That said it’s also the most fun to contemplate and yell at when trying to put the puzzle together about what the season will look like.

 

Column Key – Player (Duh), Rank (My Positional Rank), Team (Duh, again), FP (Fantasy Points), Pos ADP (Positional ADP), Diff (Difference between Rank and Pos ADP), 1st Rank (My First Rank), Diff (Difference between this rank and my 1st rank), 1st Pos ADP (First Positional ADP), and Diff (Difference between Pos ADP and 1st Pos ADP)

 

Player

Rank

Team

FP

Pos

ADP

Diff

1st

Rank

Diff

1st

Pos

ADP

Diff

The Elite Tier (1-3)

Michael Thomas

1

NO

315

1

0

1

0

1

0

Julio Jones

2

ATL

305

5

-3

3

-1

5

0

Davante Adams

3

GB

268

2

1

2

1

2

0

I moved Adams up into the tier despite the other two having the clear FP advantage, but Adams should dominate targets in the Green Bay offense. Otherwise I don’t expect much trouble about this tier.

The Very Good Tier (4-8)

Chris Godwin

4

TB

264

6

-2

5

-1

6

0

DJ Moore

5

CAR

263

9

-4

4

1

9

0

Tyreek Hill

6

KC

230

3

3

8

-2

3

0

Allen Robinson

7

CHI

245

11

-4

7

0

13

-2

DeAndre Hopkins

8

ARI

229

4

4

6

2

4

0

Nobody is more than a half tier different but these are players that I just trust to have volume and lead their team, I know I’m going out on a bit of limb with Godwin, and subsequently Evans in Tampa but I think Godwin can do things that Evans isn’t as well suited for, and that Brady can still sustain two top 15 WRs. Also, the fact that Robinson moved into WR1s but is still on the fringe is weird denialism in the ADP.

The Slightly Less Very Good Tier (9-19)

Odell Beckham Jr

9

CLE

249

14

-5

9

0

11

3

Amari Cooper

10

DAL

245

12

-2

10

0

10

2

JuJu Smith-Schuster

11

PIT

233

13

-2

12

-1

14

-1

Kenny Golladay

12

DET

242

8

4

18

-6

8

0

Mike Evans

13

TB

234

7

6

13

0

7

0

Keenan Allen

14

LAC

247

20

-6

16

-2

20

0

Adam Thielen

15

MIN

241

10

5

19

-4

12

-2

Tyler Lockett

16

SEA

237

22

-6

14

2

22

0

Courtland Sutton

17

DEN

229

21

-4

17

0

19

2

Stefon Diggs

18

BUF

225

27

-9

15

3

27

0

Terry McLaurin

19

WAS

236

24

-5

21

-2

24

0

Alright, now we start to get some larger disagreements, although I haven’t had an ADP match since Thomas. And I first want to touch on Golladay. I don’t know why I don’t have a strong affinity for him, all he’s done is average 117.5 targets, 67.5 catches, and 1128.5 yards, and 8 TDs the last two seasons. He’s a bit older going into his fourth season in the NFL, but at 27 he’s not exactly old. So, I moved him up 6 spots to WR12 and that’s still probably a touch too low but it’s an olive branch from an obstinate, stubborn headed, bastard. I’m still 9 spots higher on Diggs than ADP, I’ve said my piece on Diggs, but I’ll just reiterate that he’s one of the best route runners in the league and will give Josh Allen plenty of wide open targets. Lastly, a trio of players I’m six spots different on than ADP: I’m higher on  Keenan Allen & Tyler Lockett, and lower on Mike Evans. I admitted I’m taking a bit of a risk on with Evans but ADP currently has them both as top 10 options and that seems a little too optimistic for an offense with a brand new 43 year-old QB. I understand the Allen hate more than the Lokcett hate. Allen has a new QB and possibly a QB switch in his near future. Lockett still has Russell Wilson. I think it’s more likely than not that Allen doesn’t see 150 targets again, and Lockett shouldn’t loose too much of his 110 targets as Metcalf already had 100 last season and there isn’t much to challenge either for targets. Both play in a two receiver system with a young player, Lockett having the disadvantage here with a second year player pushing him. Allen is also helped by the fact that Tyrod doesn’t rely on the RBs nearly as much as Rivers did limiting his overall target downside. Lockett’s biggest selling point is he has Wilson’s trust in the red zone and plays with the better QB. Allen’s upside is 160 targets.

The Very Good with Questions Tier (20-40)

T.Y. Hilton

20

IND

229

25

-5

24

-4

23

2

Robert Woods

21

LAR

208

18

3

22

-1

18

0

A.J. Brown

22

TEN

214

16

6

20

2

17

-1

D.K. Metcalf

23

SEA

207

19

4

26

-3

21

-2

A.J. Green

24

CIN

235

28

-4

31

-7

28

0

Calvin Ridley

25

ATL

227

17

8

28

-3

16

1

Jerry Jeudy

26

DEN

222

43

-17

37

-11

37

6

Julian Edelman

27

NE

234

32

-5

23

4

35

-3

Cooper Kupp

28

LAR

216

15

13

11

17

15

0

D.J. Chark

29

JAC

213

23

6

29

0

25

-2

Michael Gallup

30

DAL

214

30

0

25

5

32

-2

Jamison Crowder

31

NYJ

200

44

-13

30

1

46

-2

Jarvis Landry

32

CLE

201

31

1

27

5

29

2

Tyler Boyd

33

CIN

206

33

0

32

1

31

2

Marquise Brown

34

BAL

216

29

5

33

1

30

-1

Sterling Shepard

35

NYG

180

49

-14

35

0

47

2

DeVante Parker

36

MIA

202

26

10

42

-6

26

0

Mike Williams

37

LAC

199

55

-18

45

-8

53

2

Preston Williams

38

MIA

184

54

-16

34

4

52

2

CeeDee Lamb

39

DAL

194

39

0

40

-1

40

-1

Jalen Reagor

40

PHI

172

50

-10

60

-20

49

1

Now, onto the big differences and weirdly the place I have the most confidence in myself… Welcome to mid-tier WRs. Let’s start with the two notable non-differences. I’m exactly in line with ADP on the Cowboys in this tier and that just tickles me. Anyways, you came for disagreements and ranks. I spent the intro to my RB piece talking about being lower on the rookies this year and then we get to this tier in the WR and now we need to talk. I love Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos spent all of 2019 looking for a WR2 and then drafted a WR1.5. Jeudy is a great route runner and in my mind will be able to make an instant impact year one due to his abilities in this area. Let’s talk about slot receivers and a pair of them that are 13 spots from their ADP in my rankings. I’m lower by 13 spots on Kupp and higher by 13 spots on Crowder. Kupp and Crowder are similarly talented, both had good 2019s, although Crowder played with an injured starting QB for a good portion of the season. Crowder had 122 targets in 2019 and the Jets replaced Robby Anderson with a worse facsimile in Breshad Perriman but do get Chris Herndon back at TE and Denzel Mims is probably an improvement on any other than Anderson or Crowder the Jets had in 2019. He’s been the best receiver in camp and shouldn’t see much of a cut to his target share this season. Kupp for his part is a slot receiver in an offense that continued to use more 12 personnel in 2019. This isn’t to say Kupp isn’t going to be good, just that he’s no longer a high upside option with ridiculous target upside. Sterling Shepard has been a favorite of mine since he came into the league and although he has had injury issues when he’s was on the field last year he saw at least 5 targets in every game and greater than 8 targets on 6 out of the 10  games. Mike Williams has not been a favorite of mine since he came into the league. I didn’t think he was particularly bad, but I also didn’t really think there was much special there. Entering his fourth season in the NFL I think he sees his third straight season of increased target numbers should bring him into the triple digits and a middling of his TD numbers between 10 from 2018 and 2 from 2019 should see his value settle into a solid WR3 range if it all breaks well. We talked about Preston Williams and Parker in the first ranks, but I just don’t understand why we’re so certain that Parker should be 28 spots higher than William when their stat lines together look pretty similar. The last player to talk about here is Jalen Reagor whom I ranked 60th in the first set and 40th in the second on the back of Alshon Jeffery possibly not being ready for the start of the season and the realization that the TEs can’t have 300 targets means someone has to get targets. I have my reservations about Reagor but he’s definitely rosterable and flex-worthy if nothing else this season.

The Tier of Destiny (or Doom, Probably Doom) (41-51)

Marvin Jones

41

DET

198

37

4

46

-5

38

-1

Christian Kirk

42

ARI

186

41

1

39

3

41

0

Golden Tate

43

NYG

174

51

-8

47

-4

55

-4

Mecole Hardman

44

KC

166

48

-4

41

3

50

-2

Henry Ruggs

45

LVR

158

45

0

55

-10

43

2

Sammy Watkins

46

KC

159

53

-7

44

2

59

-6

Brandin Cooks

47

HOU

142

34

13

48

-1

34

0

Parris Campbell

48

IND

157

68

-20

38

10

79

-11

John Brown

49

BUF

146

46

3

43

6

48

-2

James Washington

50

PIT

143

74

-24

51

-1

94

-20

Curtis Samuel

51

CAR

154

58

-7

49

2

62

-4

A smaller tier, and maybe I could have added a couple of the upside guys from the next tier but all in all I think I’m confident with this group including the two big differences, Campbell and Washington. Both of them is being touted less than a similarly aged teammate, both had disappointing rookie campaigns, and both bring a particular skillset. Campbell fits Rivers’ game to a T, he thrived in the short areas at Ohio State and Rivers has shown a greater and greater propensity for underneath routes which I think Campbell can thrive on once again. Washington on the other hand is a pure outside deep threat and with Ben coming back he should be in a position to make a more efficient impact than last season.

The Young and Questionable and Fitzgerald Tier (52-69)

Justin Jefferson

52

MIN

148

47

5

50

2

45

2

Deebo Samuel

53

SF

160

38

15

36

17

33

5

Anthony Miller

54

CHI

154

52

2

53

1

54

-2

Brandon Aiyuk

55

SF

147

56

-1

52

3

60

-4

Will Fuller

56

HOU

132

35

21

54

2

36

-1

Allen Lazard

57

GB

133

63

-6

65

-8

65

-2

Larry Fitzgerald

58

ARI

149

64

-6

56

2

68

-4

Robby Anderson

59

CAR

134

60

-1

73

-14

57

3

Darius Slayton

60

NYG

125

42

18

64

-4

42

0

Randall Cobb

61

HOU

124

76

-15

63

-2

88

-12

Tyrell Williams

62

LVR

146

71

-9

66

-4

93

-22

N'Keal Harry

63

NE

159

61

2

76

-13

63

-2

Miles Boykin

64

BAL

154

88

-24

59

5

101

-13

Dede Westbrook

65

JAC

157

72

-7

58

7

69

3

KJ Hamler

66

DEN

145

81

-15

71

-5

77

4

Corey Davis

67

TEN

132

88

-21

61

6

85

3

Dionte Johnson

68

PIT

130

88

-20

69

-1

101

-13

Cole Beasley

69

BUF

123

70

-1

84

-15

66

4

Let’s run through the questions just for fun:

Jefferson – Rookie and Vikings in more 12 personnel

Samuel – Injury

Miller – QB and enough balls to go around

Aiyuk – Rookie, Injury, Volume

Fuller – Injuries

Lazard – Can anyone establish as the Packers #2

Fitzgerald – Father Time

Anderson – Bridgewater’s deep ball & Passing volume

Slayton – Rookie year flukey, Tate & Shepard healthy

Cobb – Role

Williams – All of the rookies

Harry – Horrendous rookie year

Boykin – Slow rookie year, is WR2 that important in Baltimore

Westbrook – 3-way competition for WR2 in Jacksonville

Hamler – Rookie who’s at best the 4th option in the passing game

Davis – He’s Corey Davis

Johnson – Washington (for me) and chemistry with Roethlisberger

Beasley – Old, Diggs addition, Allen

The High Upside, but do They Have the Path Tier (70-85)

John Ross

70

CIN

118

78

-8

74

-4

100

-22

Kenny Stills

71

HOU

120

88

-17

72

-1

90

-2

Michael Pittman Jr

72

IND

117

59

13

80

-8

51

8

Denzel Mims

73

NYJ

132

69

4

81

-8

64

5

Danny Amendola

74

DET

136

88

-14

67

7

81

7

Trey Quinn

75

WAS

131

88

-13

70

5

101

-13

Laviska Shenault Jr

76

JAC

110

80

-4

75

1

86

-6

Antonio Gandy-Golden

77

WAS

116

85

-8

100

-23

82

3

Josh Reynolds

78

LAR

126

88

-10

62

16

101

-13

Chris Conley

79

JAC

138

88

-9

77

2

99

-11

Breshad Perriman

80

NYJ

122

62

18

68

12

56

6

Emmanuel Sanders

81

NO

117

40

41

57

24

44

-4

Gary Jennings

82

MIA

116

88

-6

284

-202

101

-13

Dontrelle Inman

83

WAS

110

88

-5

285

-202

101

-13

Tee Higgins

84

CIN

108

67

17

82

2

67

0

Hunter Renfrow

85

LVR

105

65

20

88

-3

71

-6

I don’t understand the Sanders love, I know we all want the Saints to have a good WR2 instead of 3 WR4s. He provides a solid option in New Orleans’ passing game but the more I look at it I’m not enthused about a 33-year-old WR on his third team in two years who couldn’t crack 900 yards in nearly 100 targets. Alo love to see Ross making a big jump up the ADP because he’s still a talent I love.

The One of These Players Will Help Win Your League Tier (86-106)

Bryan Edwards

86

LVR

83

87

-1

86

0

91

-4

Adam Humphries

87

TEN

102

88

-1

78

9

101

-13

Desean Jackson

88

PHI

96

57

31

91

-3

58

-1

Alshon Jeffery

89

PHI

100

73

16

90

-1

61

12

Cam Sims

90

WAS

72

88

2

97

-7

101

-13

Zach Pascal

91

IND

70

88

3

87

4

89

-1

Tre'Quan Smith

92

NO

89

88

4

96

-4

101

-13

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

93

GB

89

88

5

79

14

101

-13

Isaiah Ford

94

MIA

88

88

6

133

-39

101

-13

Russell Gage

95

ATL

105

88

7

93

2

101

-13

Tyler Johnson

96

TB

93

88

8

92

4

75

13

Quintez Cephus

97

DET

56

88

9

99

-2

78

10

Van Jefferson

98

LAR

80

82

16

169

-71

95

-13

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside

99

PHI

63

88

11

105

-6

101

-13

Kendrick Bourne

100

SF

91

88

12

119

-19

101

-13

Josh Malone

101

NYJ

90

88

13

150

-49

101

-13

Andy Isabella

102

ARI

59

88

14

85

17

101

-13

Chase Claypool

103

PIT

63

86

17

108

-5

76

10

Olabisi Johnson

103

MIN

59

88

15

118

-15

101

-13

Chris Moore

104

BAL

81

88

16

103

1

101

-13

Mohamed Sanu

105

NE

84

88

17

102

3

101

-13

Diontae Spencer

106

DEN

59

88

18

112

-6

101

-13

Richie James

106

SF

71

88

18

142

-36

101

-13

I’m probably too low on Jacksons but I think he’s the fourth best receiving option on his team. And yet I’d bet he (or Jeffery) is going to make me feel like an idiot.

Lottery Ticket Tier 1 (107-127)

Cedrick Wilson

107

DAL

66

88

19

117

-10

101

-13

David Moore

108

SEA

61

88

20

126

-18

101

-13

Jakeem Grant

109

MIA

65

88

21

354

-245

101

-13

Demarcus Robinson

110

KC

55

88

22

106

4

101

-13

Equanimeous St. Brown

111

GB

69

88

23

109

2

101

-13

Joe Reed

112

LAC

71

88

24

152

-40

101

-13

Jakobi Meyers

113

NE

65

88

25

116

-3

101

-13

Laquon Treadwell

114

ATL

66

88

26

113

1

101

-13

Damiere Byrd

115

NE

60

88

27

114

1

101

-13

Cody Hollister

116

TEN

61

88

28

156

-40

101

-13

KeeSean Johnson

117

ARI

48

88

29

104

13

101

-13

John Hightower

118

PHI

39

88

30

134

-16

101

-13

Steven Sims

119

WAS

37

88

31

98

21

101

-13

Rashard Higgins

120

CLE

23

88

32

101

19

101

-13

Devin Duvernay

121

BAL

22

83

38

145

-24

74

9

Auden Tate

122

CIN

18

88

34

141

-19

101

-13

Keke Coutee

123

HOU

38

88

35

107

16

101

-13

Cordarelle Patterson

124

CHI

45

88

36

125

-1

101

-13

Deon Cain

126

PIT

29

88

38

130

-4

101

-13

Ryan Switzer

127

PIT

22

88

39

131

-4

101

-13

A boulevard of broken draft loves in this tier. I liked, relatively at least, Wilson, Treadwell, Johnson & Hightower (Both in last two seasons so not a huge knock on me!), Higgins, Coutee, Cain, and Switzer coming in and a couple more at different points in their career. The big one we’ll talk about here is Duvernay. He’s not going all that high but there are at least 2 players behind Marquise Brown that I like more than Duvernay and then there’s Proche who isn’t that far behind overall. Duvernay is a fine slot player but on a team that will see a good amount of 12 personnel I just find it hard to be all that upbeat about a player who I was meh on pre-draft in a roster spot that’s also meh, to me.

Lottery Ticket Tier 2 (129-146)

Keelan Cole

129

JAC

39

88

41

122

7

101

-13

Justin Watson

130

TB

27

88

42

146

-16

101

-13

Freddie Swain

131

SEA

50

88

43

123

8

101

-13

Jake Kumerow

132

GB

36

88

44

190

-58

101

-13

Olamide Zaccheaus

133

ATL

35

88

45

136

-3

101

-13

Scott Miller

134

TB

27

88

46

140

-6

101

-13

Dante Pettis

135

SF

26

88

47

128

7

101

-13

Trent Sherfield

136

ARI

25

88

48

346

-210

101

-13

Darius Jennings

137

LAC

48

88

49

197

-60

101

-13

Isaiah McKenzie

138

BUF

46

88

50

138

0

101

-13

Phillip Dorsett

139

SEA

43

88

51

111

28

101

-13

Byron Pringle

140

KC

31

88

52

148

-8

101

-13

John Ursua

141

SEA

26

88

53

151

-10

101

-13

Duke Williams

142

BUF

25

88

54

174

-32

101

-13

Tajae Sharpe

143

MIN

42

88

55

124

19

101

-13

Christian Blake

144

ATL

22

88

56

154

-10

101

-13

Lil'Jordan Humphrey

145

NO

20

88

57

171

-26

97

-9

Gunner Olszewski

146

NE

27

88

58

375

-229

101

-13

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