2023 Fantasy Football - 1st Rankings - PPR Running Backs

 Running back is deep in a completely different way than QB. You have your top couple tiers of known bellcows, a couple tiers of what should be reliable starters, and then 50 backs that may or may not be useful in a large variety of roles. Trying to cut off/limit the number of players in this piece was…. Difficult. As with QBs and going forward you can find my Full Rankings and underlying Projections at these two links. Ranking RBs for PPR has the pocket passer (power/bellcow) vs scrambling QB (receiving backs) problem but with double the player pool compared to QBs, and while ranking WRs has slot/accumulators vs outside/deep threats the production and projections are much more defined.

 

Note: RB1 and RB 1 are not the same the former denotes RBs rated 1-12, and the latter is a specific rank

 

Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB1	Christian McCaffrey	SF	241	1109	10	98	730	5	353	1	0
RB2	Austin Ekeler	LAC	234	1075	10	126	899	8	403	2	0

 

These two seem to be the top two consensus. McCaffrey seems to be drawing some side eye because of injuries and the way the 49ers split that backfield after the trade last season. Ekeler is still grumping about a new contract but he should be leaned on as long as he’s there all season.

 

Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB3	Derrick Henry	TEN	331	1576	15	46	338	1	321	7	-4
RB4	Jonathan Taylor	IND	277	1407	12	62	353	2	309	5	-1
RB5	Nick Chubb	CLE	303	1589	12	46	331	1	306	6	-1
RB6	Saquon Barkley	NYG	285	1271	11	85	511	2	318	4	2
RB7	Bijan Robinson	ATL	243	960	12	61	451	4	280	3	4
RB8	Aaron Jones	GB	233	1188	8	87	566	4	313	17	-9
RB9	Joe Mixon	CIN	227	928	7	85	593	3	281	16	-7
RB10	Josh Jacobs	LVR	323	1429	12	69	481	1	324	8	2

 

I think Jones is the 2^nd/3^rd receiving option for a young QB and an offense that may be playing from behind. That said he had 1121 yards rushing and 395 receiving, if the TDs only double from 2 to 4 he should be primed for his fifth RB1 season in a row. Mixon restricted his contract and was used less in the run game last season but he saw an uptick in his targets to a career high (75) and finished as a low end RB1 last year, a slight uptick in his yards and yards per carry and there’s no reason we shouldn’t see a repeat for him as well. Henry also saw an uptick in targets from 20ish on average to 41, there’s no reason to think his carries will diminish significantly with the QB situation being in limbo. I essentially swapped him and Robinson versus ADP, we’re hoping that Robinson gets similar usage to Henry, I just think until we don’t see it for Henry I’d rather bank on precedent.

 

Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB11	Breece Hall	NYJ	245	1416	12	68	468	2	316	10	1
RB12	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	214	1027	7	84	514	3	280	11	1
RB13	Travis Etienne	JAX	221	1130	6	61	410	0	237	13	0
RB14	Dameon Pierce	HOU	285	1282	9	58	312	2	270	18	-4
RB15	Tony Pollard	DAL	215	1102	7	72	501	2	271	9	6
RB16	Alvin Kamara	NO	214	967	8	71	491	3	266	31	-15
RB17	Najee Harris	PIT	263	1016	8	58	316	2	241	12	5
RB18	D'Andre Swift	PHI	205	947	10	32	215	1	208	23	-5
RB19	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	209	965	8	34	201	1	197	15	4
RB20	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	194	1135	6	26	163	1	191	19	1

 

As we move out of the RB1s we start getting into less certain territory, at least in my mind and in my ranks. Two major differences in this range… Kamara who just plead no contest in his assault case stemming from a fight in Vegas, will probably be suspended but I haven’t heard much about suspected length. So, for now I have him downgraded for the uncertainty, but not significantly far down because of the lack of information. Pollard is the only other half a dozen or more spots off. I like Pollard, I like him a lot, but his upside is limited by the fact that the Cowboys know/believe that he tuckers out at a certain number of carries. The staff admitted as much when Elliott went out last year. He’s still very good and a high-end RB2/fringe RB1, and not the solid RB1 that ADP has him.

 

Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB21	Rachaad White	TB	231	860	8	65	397	3	248	25	-4
RB22	Alexander Mattison	MIN	261	1079	8	48	336	2	240	22	0
RB23	AJ Dillon	GB	208	902	6	41	282	1	192	32	-9
RB24	Javonte Williams	DEN	193	853	5	65	421	3	224	28	-4
RB25	Khalil Herbert	CHI	205	1031	5	51	315	3	224	37	-12
RB26	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	155	591	5	69	515	4	213	14	12
RB27	Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	267	1037	10	20	142	2	204	34	-7
RB28	James Conner	ARI	224	937	6	37	254	1	193	26	2
RB29	Raheem Mostert	MIA	228	1226	7	32	221	2	221	48	-19
RB30	Antonio Gibson	WAS	109	450	4	88	645	3	222	35	-5
RB31	Miles Sanders	CAR	230	1156	7	47	265	2	229	20	11

 

Dillon is well worth fringe RB2, solid RB3 capital, he’s been consistently on 180 rushes the last two years with 35-45 targets to go along each season. He’s finished RB 23 & RB 26 the last two seasons and I see no reason he shouldn’t come up in the same area once again. The NFC North is going to be a hot bed in these mid-range RBs… I apparently won’t be getting much if any Gibbs and all of the Herbert. Herbert finished PPR-RB 41 on 129 carries that gained him 731 yards, he will need to see a n uptick in the passing game as he had just 12 targets but if he hits his median YPC between his first two seasons and sees and additional 75-80 rushes he’ll see 1000 yards easily and be a fringe RB2, Foreman/Johnson I think battle each other more than Herbert. Gibbs is electric, and explosive, I like him as a prospect but I’ve become increasingly wary that my projection of 2021 Swift (151 carries, 78 targets, PPR-RB 15) is his ceiling because of the way they’re going to use him Montgomery. For real life it’s smart, for fantasy… meh. Mostert is low because of the rumors that Cook is going there, I go closer to ADP if that happens, for now… it’s not a thing. Sanders is the starter in Carolina, he’s gonna get run, but the Panthers lack weapons, and have a significantly worse offensive line than the Eagles. Sanders should have a solid floor but the upside seems relatively limited.

 

Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB32	David Montgomery	DET	233	919	8	33	226	1	193	29	3
RB33	Jerome Ford	CLE	120	470	11	46	323	1	185	59	-26
RB34	Damien Harris	BUF	196	913	8	39	249	0	195	40	-6
RB35	Jerick McKinnon	KC	78	316	2	81	555	4	183	42	-7
RB36	Isiah Pacheco	KC	179	796	6	23	196	1	162	27	9
RB37	James Cook	BUF	113	641	2	61	387	2	166	30	7
RB38	Cam Akers	LAR	195	816	6	24	176	1	158	24	14
RB39	Malik Davis	DAL	201	853	5	29	240	1	172	76	-37
RB40	Jaylen Warren	PIT	90	444	3	41	257	1	128	53	-13
RB41	Jamaal Williams	NO	131	521	5	47	309	2	162	36	5
RB42	Samaje Perine	DEN	113	450	3	49	336	2	151	33	9
RB43	Elijah Mitchell	SF	96	474	4	21	149	1	111	43	0
RB44	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	90	442	5	17	122	1	108	44	0
RB45	Keaontay Ingram	ARI	93	370	3	43	242	2	126	79	-34
RB46	Zach Evans	LAR	72	291	4	31	219	2	111	64	-18
RB47	Rashaad Penny	PHI	55	311	3	19	128	1	79	39	8
RB48	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	85	332	4	9	52	0	68	38	10

 

If Ford takes over the Hunt role, and I think he will, he’ll at a minimum get 120+ rushes and 40+ targets and if Chubb doesn’t repeat his ability to stay healthy as he did last year for the first time in three seasons he moves up from there. Chubb is 27, there’s talk that he’s going to take on a larger role in the offense but he’s been on pace for 300 carries in all but his rookie season so I’m not sure there’s much more room for workload over what’s been there even with Hunt as the spell back. Akers is fine, in his two “full” seasons as a rookie and last year he had 145 and 188 carries and averaged a target a game. I may be a bit too low as I type up this defense but there’s nothing substantial to suggest he’s going to get a greater portion of the rushes, of which I have him projected for 47.5%. Malik Davis RB2 in Dallas, and as I said above I don’t believe Pollard is going to take a massive jump in carries means there will be somewhere around 250 carries to fill, Dallas has leaned on two RBs with a 3rd as an emergency backup under McCarthy and with that I think Davis picks up roughly 200 carries, and a couple targets a game. This is plenty enough to get him into fringe RB3/solid RB4 easily. So, I feel like I’m taking crazy pills on Warren, I’m not even all that high on him. There’s a role, he’s not going steel the job from Najee as some have suggested but he’s certainly going to have a spell role and has a skill set that will help him take advantage of limited touches. I think Ingram has more upside and a better skill set than Clement who is currently ahead of him on the depth chart, if Clement stays there throughout camp Ingram will drop but this is an offense and a run game that could use a bit of a spark out of the backfield. The Evans rank is almost exclusively tied to the Akers rank, aside from Kyren Williams there will need to be a spell player for Akers and for me that someone is Evans with the potential to steal a larger role in the second half of the season.

 

Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB49	Gus Edwards	BAL	85	437	3	31	243	1	116	61	-12
RB50	Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	101	444	7	8	52	0	98	57	-7
RB51	D'Onta Foreman	CHI	111	478	3	25	196	2	113	46	5
RB52	Chase Brown	CIN	104	392	3	56	377	2	144	60	-8
RB53	Jeff Wilson	MIA	103	460	4	16	102	1	95	52	1
RB54	Devin Singletary	HOU	61	285	3	29	167	1	89	45	9
RB55	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	104	421	5	28	170	1	115	54	1
RB56	Chase Edmonds	TB	102	455	3	42	274	1	132	73	-17
RB57	Tyjae Spears	TEN	48	195	3	40	303	2	108	55	2
RB58	Ty Chandler	MIN	106	399	5	21	144	1	101	67	-9
RB59	Michael Carter	NYJ	93	372	2	27	182	1	96	65	-6
RB60	Israel Abanikanda	NYJ	58	223	4	27	188	1	91	66	-6
RB61	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	76	331	3	26	179	1	94	62	-1
RB62	Devon Achane	MIA	39	154	2	27	175	2	77	41	21
RB63	Tony Jones Jr	DEN	45	121	2	29	167	1	65	83	-20
RB64	Pierre Strong Jr	NE	32	321	2	28	183	2	103	70	-6
RB65	Kyren Williams	LAR	78	310	3	34	229	0	97	77	-12
RB66	Deuce Vaughn	DAL	54	205	3	20	149	2	76	72	-6
RB67	Dare Ogunbowale	HOU	37	120	1	58	332	1	95	83	-16
RB68	Cordarrelle Patterson	ATL	68	341	3	19	122	1	83	63	5
RB69	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	TB	36	157	2	11	61	1	43	83	-14
RB70	Evan Hull	IND	37	137	1	22	120	1	54	83	-13
RB71	Eric Gray	NYG	41	158	2	11	66	0	39	75	-4
RB72	Roschon Johnson	CHI	25	95	1	5	30	0	26	51	21
RB73	Zonovan Knight	NYJ	23	82	0	14	93	0	32	83	-10
RB74	Tank Bigsby	JAX	91	344	3	9	51	0	64	50	24
RB75	Ty Montgomery	NE	96	436	3	4	27	0	65	83	-8
RB76	DeeJay Dallas	SEA	34	145	1	17	111	0	50	83	-7
RB77	Joshua Kelley	LAC	84	294	3	25	157	0	83	71	6
RB78	Isaiah Spiller	LAC	47	179	2	16	97	0	52	83	-5
RB79	D'Ernest Johnson	JAX	11	58	0	30	188	0	50	83	-4
RB80	JaMycal Hasty	JAX	49	197	2	30	175	0	76	83	-3
RB81	Matt Breida	NYG	54	260	1	27	178	1	77	83	-2
RB82	Craig Reynolds	DET	39	167	1	14	112	0	46	83	-1
RB83	Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	16	63	1	16	123	0	35	83	0
RB84	Kyle Juszczyk	SF	5	17	0	18	140	0	32	83	1
RB85	Keaton Mitchell	BAL	7	29	0	13	89	1	25	83	2
RB86	Justice Hill	BAL	53	245	2	13	79	0	55	83	3
RB87	Kenny McIntosh	SEA	21	82	1	17	123	0	40	83	4
RB88	Tyler Badie	DEN	23	86	1	10	67	0	28	83	5
RB89	Jordan Mason	SF	36	216	1	3	11	0	29	83	6

 

Large tier, large gap (>16 spots different), rapid fire…

Edmonds (TB|56|73) – An experienced all-purpose player to back up White who had a surprisingly solid rookie campaign. Fighting for time with Vaughn who didn’t live up to the fantasy hype, Laird who’s special teams big body option, and a pair of rookies.

Achane (MIA|62|41) – Undersized speedy back on a team with speed at receiver and a pair of vets that are extremely quick (Mostert & Wilson) and may be adding a veteran bellcow option (Dalvin Cook).

Jones Jr (DEN|63|83*) – Javonte is on that Dobbins schedule right now, which may or may not pan out for him. Right now I’m assuming Perine and Jones Jr have expanded roles at least early in the season.

R. Johnson (CHI|72|51) – Maybe Johnson takes over this backfield, but I think, as noted above, that the most likely series of events is that Johnson and Foreman are battling for an early down spell role and that Herbert is the back I want.

Bigsby (JAX|74|50) – Much like Chicago Bigsby is most likely fighting for a secondary early down role with Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson, and Snoop Connor.