2023 Fantasy Football - 1st Rankings - Quarterback Rankings

 Bit of a late start but this June was not among my favorite months. That said it was time to produce a complete set of ranks and projections as we approach training camps. I’ve decided my pieces are gonna be a bit more paired down to be more consumable with my Full Rankings and underlying Projections in good docs for a deeper dive. As always, the projections are just a single point and outcomes for each and every team and player fall on a spectrum. This is why you’ll see differences between projected points and where players fall in the ranks. Think of these adjustments as confidence adjustments, where players below lower projected players have a higher variance of outcomes and players above higher projected players are a bit more safe/stable in what I think of them and their projections. The best example of this is Howell, an expected uptick in passes for Washington with Bieniemy taking over the offense and a good cast around him even with tempered expectations he’s 14^th on predictions alone. That said he’s heading into his sophomore season, so he gets filtered down a couple of spots because of variance and some vets/situations I have more confidence in.

As was said above I’ll be trying to focus on rosterable/relevant players plus the remainder of the tier. For QBs that ends up being 32 QBs as my 4^th tier is rather large (19-32). QB is pretty loaded, there are a handful of very good young players, a tier of in their prime/mid-career established QBs and ending their careers but relevant guys. Plus, a number of question marks that at least means you can approach the position from a number of angles.

 

Tier 1 – Elite Quarterbacks
Rank	Player	Tm	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB1	Josh Allen	BUF	593	4656	36	15	124	701	8	456	2	-1
QB2	Jalen Hurts	PHI	466	4012	28	12	164	848	10	422	3	-1
QB3	Patrick Mahomes	KC	639	5372	41	13	63	326	4	456	1	2
QB4	Joe Burrow	CIN	581	4759	37	14	81	276	5	415	4	0

Nothing too ground breaking here. Mahomes doesn’t run like Hurts and Allen, and Burrow is my Herbert this year taking a step up into the Elite tier… I may revert and just but him and Herbert in their own mini-tier before it’s all said and done.

 

Tier 2 – Very Good Quarterbacks
Rank	Player	Tm	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB5	Justin Herbert	LAC	619	4813	35	13	63	250	3	386	7	-2
QB6	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	593	4301	30	14	60	278	3	340	8	-2
QB7	Lamar Jackson	BAL	393	3195	23	8	104	635	5	318	5	2
QB8	Justin Fields	CHI	442	3430	25	22	136	916	6	346	6	2
QB9	Dak Prescott	DAL	506	4205	30	12	54	252	4	347	10	-1
QB10	Deshaun Watson	CLE	535	4537	27	10	93	502	5	371	9	1
QB11	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	431	3566	28	12	34	103	2	285	11	0

Herbert still has the pure opportunity but that offense has yet to completely click, and/or stay healthy. Lawrence will looks to build off a great end to his second season, Jackson looks to regain MVP level of play, Fields needs to take a step forward in pass production but his rushing upside is elite for a RB, Prescott is solid if a touch unspectacular, Watson is the largest boom-bust of the top end QBs as he has MVP-ish upside but showed a considerable amount of rust after nearly two years out of football, and Tua sneaks into the end of this tier because his production when on the field last year was fantastic and that offense is explosive as all get out.

 

Tier 3 – Good Quarterbacks with Questions
Rank	Player	Tm	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB12	Aaron Rodgers	NYJ	538	4461	31	9	35	169	2	343	15	-3
QB13	Kirk Cousins	MIN	623	5120	32	13	32	103	2	359	12	1
QB14	Daniel Jones	NYG	505	3884	26	15	121	708	5	356	13	1
QB15	Matthew Stafford	LAR	571	4475	30	19	27	87	1	305	21	-6
QB16	Geno Smith	SEA	561	4591	31	18	64	302	2	348	16	0
QB17	Jared Goff	DET	545	4504	31	17	29	66	1	316	17	0
QB18	Russell Wilson	DEN	583	4656	25	13	57	314	2	322	18	0

Rodgers was still QB13 last year despite injuries but a team change and this being his age 40 season is a legit concern. Cousins is consistently good if unspectacular, Daniel Jones has rushing upside and has the Daboll advantage but he’s a variation of Cousins. Stafford was hurt last year but I think he and the offensive weapons in LA are still good enough to be a fringe fantasy starter and he’s being discounted too much. Geno and Goff had career, or near career, years and while I think they’ll still be very useful they highlight why I’m either paying up or waiting ‘til really late to take QB. Then there’s Wilson, he took a major step back last season but I trust both his, and especially Payton’s, track record to bounce back with what is a pretty nice group of skill position players in Denver.

 

Tier 4 – Unproven and Major Questions Quarterbacks
Rank	Player	Tm	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB19	Sam Howell	WAS	527	4423	30	18	56	280	2	330	27	-8
QB20	Anthony Richardson	IND	400	2682	21	18	86	349	6	253	14	6
QB21	Derek Carr	NO	459	3867	29	13	24	73	1	286	19	2
QB22	Baker Mayfield	TB	548	4234	29	18	52	182	3	315	32	-10
QB23	Kenny Pickett	PIT	521	3725	27	35	71	306	4	270	24	-1
QB24	Jordan Love	GB	539	4312	31	21	37	74	1	301	20	4
QB25	CJ Stroud	HOU	572	4080	26	6	49	155	2	310	25	0
QB26	Bryce Young	CAR	539	3817	27	18	49	150	2	285	23	3
QB27	Mac Jones	NE	500	3746	26	18	54	137	1	265	28	-1
QB28	Desmond Ridder	ATL	461	3416	33	28	61	244	3	298	31	-3
QB29	Brock Purdy	SF	430	3674	23	14	41	24	2	246	26	3
QB30	Jimmy Garoppolo	LVR	493	4026	25	12	32	44	1	273	30	0
QB31	Kyler Murray	ARI	244	1764	13	6	61	353	4	181	22	9
QB32	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	329	2708	19	9	31	149	2	209	35	-3

With all my tiers I’m not gonna quibble too much if you have the guys in a different order… I’ve discussed Howell above but think there’s reason for more optimism than fringe QB2. Richardson is an issue of how many games he’ll start this year, but if he’s in he has cheat code upside in the rushing game. Baker is a perfectly fine starter with ++ weapons at receiver and a track record of being a more useful quarterback than fringe QB3. Outside of that the biggest difference is Murray and that’s a matter of when he’s back. There’s positive news out there right now and I think he’s worth a flyer to potentially have a top 8 to 10 level QB down the stretch.