2023 Fantasy Football - 1st Rankings - PPR Wide Receivers

 

It has been said in draft and dynasty circles that there will never be a dearth of wide receivers and even after a couple “underwhelming” classes you can see that played out in where the position is in fantasy right now. You could make the case for any of the top 30ish players for a spot as a WR1. The other place we see this is that I was comfortable cutting his off at WR101, I thought about going one more tier, and there’s some guys to talk about at that level later in camps but for now the one’s that matter and will build out the core of your receiving corps sits in that top-75 or so. As I’ve noted previously you can find my Full Rankings and underlying Projections at these two links.

 

Note: WR1 and WR 1 are not the same the former denotes WRs rated 1-12, and the latter is a specific rank/finish

 

Tier 1 – Elite Receivers
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
WR1	Justin Jefferson	MIN	178	1578	10	339	1	0
WR2	Davante Adams	LVR	179	1468	12	335	7	-5
WR3	Cooper Kupp	LAR	153	1251	10	297	3	0
WR4	Stefon Diggs	BUF	166	1317	10	307	5	-1

 

I don’t get why we’re this “low” on Adams he’s been elite and even if you think he had a down year in 2022 he had 180 targets, 1516 yards, and 14 TDs. 12 TDs is his average since ’16 and just middling regression on his catch percentage (55.6% last year to 60% (4.5% below his career average)) adds 10ish catches and 120 yards. Diggs in this tier and not the next might be the only other “controversial” take. I think that some slight tweaks to the offense could make a world of difference efficiency-wise in Buffalo. Or he stays mad and the volatility goes through the roof.

 

Tier 2 – Very, Very Good Receivers
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Red TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
WR5	Tyreek Hill	MIA	162	1368	12	316	4	1
WR6	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	123	1063	10	247	2	4
WR7	A.J. Brown	PHI	149	1329	11	291	8	-1
WR8	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	159	1301	7	279	6	2

 

I’m slightly lower on Chase than ADP, I still really like chase and if you wanted to flop him and Diggs in the tiers, I wouldn’t have an overly strong argument against it. He was on pace for an insane workload last year (134 targets in 12 games), so maybe I need to bump his targets a bit more but his output will then just catch up to those around him in the ranks.

 

Tier 3 – Very Good Receivers
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
WR9	DK Metcalf	SEA	142	1112	9	252	15	-6
WR10	DeVonta Smith	PHI	147	1202	8	265	12	-2
WR11	Michael Pittman Jr	IND	145	932	7	234	29	-18
WR12	Terry McLaurin	WAS	132	1124	9	249	21	-9
WR13	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	121	1010	8	233	11	2
WR14	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	128	1007	9	227	10	4
WR15	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	151	1146	6	264	9	6
WR16	DJ Moore	CHI	139	1072	5	219	22	-6
WR17	Chris Olave	NO	113	893	6	194	14	3
WR18	Tee Higgins	CIN	103	871	6	190	13	5

 

Finally, some spicy differences. Pittman has shown remarkable sure hands and winning in spaces vets are willing to place the ball, the disgusting QB play last year saw his yards per reception drop by 3 yards last season, a young QB who’s willing to push the ball means he catches a few less balls but you should see returns in his upside once Richardson takes command, until then Minshew should be able to use him just fine. McLaurin is, as I noted for Howell, a bet on Bieniemy opening up this offense and utilizing a fantastic weapon. I’m also still low on Amon-Ra but I bumped a few spots inside the tier because I couldn’t quite justify it.

 

Tier 4 – Very Good Receivers with Questions
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
WR19	Mike Evans	TB	113	904	8	202	32	-13
WR20	Keenan Allen	LAC	100	763	7	187	18	2
WR21	Deebo Samuel	SF	119	1044	5	212	16	5
WR22	Christian Watson	GB	100	807	8	191	23	-1
WR23	Mike Williams	LAC	82	665	5	145	27	-4
WR24	Courtland Sutton	DEN	130	1041	5	208	43	-19
WR25	Chris Godwin	TB	113	920	6	208	25	0
WR26	Amari Cooper	CLE	116	977	7	211	17	9
WR27	Marquise Brown	ARI	144	1025	8	240	34	-7
WR28	Drake London	ATL	133	927	10	235	26	2
WR29	Calvin Ridley	JAX	130	997	9	239	20	9
WR30	George Pickens	PIT	136	1069	8	239	35	-5
WR31	Tyler Lockett	SEA	113	916	7	215	33	-2

 

I’m very bullish about Ridley but, he won’t have played an NFL game in 686 days when he steps on the field week 1, let’s show some caution. Evans is the big play guy in Tampa I think Baker throws it up to him a touch more than Godwin. With Sutton I’m betting on regression to the mean for Wilson, and faith in Payton to make that offense better, and Sutton’s the WR1 there. I definitely feel I could be higher on Cooper, but I also can see some reasons for being pessimistic. Plus, I’m not sure who I’d confidently move down from the group ahead of him but I think he’s in the right tier even if I’m not comfortable with his single rank place. Marquise is the top receiver on an unknown offense with pretty good credentials, but the capacity for a large workload. Give me him closer to the WR2s than the WR4s.

               

Tier 5 – Straggler NFL Starters and Very Good Seconds
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
WR32	Rashod Bateman	BAL	81	638	5	145	53	-21
WR33	Christian Kirk	JAX	115	845	7	201	28	5
WR34	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	106	891	7	201	31	3
WR35	Treylon Burks	TEN	114	886	8	206	36	-1
WR36	Alec Pierce	IND	102	655	5	149	69	-33
WR37	Brandin Cooks	DAL	78	645	5	146	41	-4
WR38	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	120	978	4	192	24	14
WR39	Rondale Moore	ARI	118	831	4	200	56	-17
WR40	Isaiah Hodgins	NYG	79	587	6	156	81	-41
WR41	Terrace Marshall	CAR	102	718	4	156	90	-49
WR42	Michael Thomas	NO	71	570	4	134	44	-2
WR43	Nico Collins	HOU	87	635	5	142	60	-17
WR44	Kadarius Toney	KC	97	763	7	187	40	4
WR45	Donovan Peoples-Jones	CLE	89	809	4	161	66	-21
WR46	Robert Woods	HOU	87	629	4	142	85	-39
WR47	Jahan Dotson	WAS	102	843	6	179	38	9
WR48	JuJu Smith-Schuster	NE	98	759	6	181	46	2
WR49	Gabriel Davis	BUF	100	812	7	177	42	7

 

Six receivers at least 20 spots different than ADP… Let’s go from least certain to most. Woods, and by extension Collins, are here and this much different from ADP because I could not commit to a target split with a rookie QB. I don’t think Woods is as bad as his 2022 season but at his age it’s probably a bigger possibility than I’m giving it credit for and I should probably adjust him down. For now, you can call me crazy. Marshall and Hodgins fill the same type of spot for me, they are the nominal number ones for their teams, and should see solid opportunity and as mid-WR4s that upside is well in line with value. Bateman, Pierce, and Peoples-Jones are entering their 3rd, 2nd, and 4th years respectively and finishing WR 112, 63, and 38. DPJ has a very nice upward trajectory to his career output and although Elijah Moore will bite into his potential targets, I think a general uptick in passing and efficiency in Watson’s second full year should continue to further that development. Pierce should benefit from QBs that push the ball downfield more and Steichen being a bit more aggressive than in his rookie year. Bateman, is presumably being discounted for the additions of a rookie (Flowers) and a vet with back issues (Beckham) plus his own return from injury last season. Before his injury last season Bateman was averaging around 2.5 yards more per target & almost a full 8 yards per reception better than his rookie year. We’ll have to monitor any lingering effects from his foot injury but if the concerns are minimal, a slightly more modern Baltimore offense and a rapport with Jackson makes him a really nice option at such a bargain basement price.

 

Tier 6 – Good 2s, Elite 3s, and Rookies
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
WR50	KJ Osborn	MIN	65	500	4	115	62	-12
WR51	Skyy Moore	KC	74	581	4	132	57	-6
WR52	Adam Thielen	CAR	97	702	5	167	58	-6
WR53	Diontae Johnson	PIT	107	685	5	164	30	23
WR54	Jordan Addison	MIN	97	791	4	171	39	15
WR55	Curtis Samuel	WAS	88	680	4	170	74	-19
WR56	Darnell Mooney	CHI	76	541	4	124	55	1
WR57	Jakobi Meyers	LVR	81	658	3	139	52	5
WR58	Jameson Williams	DET	69	688	5	147	50	8
WR59	DJ Chark	CAR	86	596	4	131	64	-5
WR60	Tyler Boyd	CIN	73	581	3	128	54	6
WR61	Quentin Johnston	LAC	72	603	4	135	45	16
WR62	Tim Patrick	DEN	75	607	3	124	91	-29
WR63	Allen Robinson	PIT	75	515	4	117	88	-25
WR64	Michael Gallup	DAL	64	492	4	108	63	1
WR65	Zay Jones	JAX	91	581	4	135	59	6
WR66	Darius Slayton	NYG	74	550	3	114	89	-23
WR67	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	62	508	3	112	37	30
WR68	Hunter Renfrow	LVR	60	489	3	112	73	-5
WR69	Zay Flowers	BAL	58	499	3	108	49	20
WR70	Elijah Moore	CLE	62	468	3	98	48	22
WR71	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	KC	48	405	4	89	72	-1
WR72	Russell Gage	TB	85	601	3	138	95	-23
WR73	Jayden Reed	GB	68	539	4	125	71	2
WR74	Jonathan Mingo	CAR	61	456	4	112	67	7
WR75	Tyquan Thornton	NE	59	413	3	86	79	-4
WR76	Allen Lazard	NYJ	55	446	4	104	51	25
WR77	Josh Palmer	LAC	63	480	3	107	83	-6
WR78	Romeo Doubs	GB	60	426	4	104	61	17
WR79	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	63	481	4	108	96	-17

 

I have the Steelers targets spreading out a bit more which sees Diontae 2nd most targeted but still a considerable way below where he finished last year. Addison, is being drafted like the surefire WR2 on the Vikings, and I think that underestimating the role Osborn had the last two years and the efficiency at which he produced in a small-ish role. I like Addison but he feels like the drastic overreaction to an underwhelming rookie season guy than a fringe WR3. Samuel was WR 34 last season but finished it with a wimper (3 targets, 2 catches, 4 yards), and although I don’t think he recreates his WR3 performance from last year I think him falling all the way off the cliff is unlikely. Patrick, Robinson, and Gage are WR3s on offenses I think will be better than expected. Slayton comes from a receiving corps that I don’t think anyone has a good handle on, and he’s the non-Hodgins option I seem to prefer right now. Smith-Njigba and Flowers are rookie options that I think are too optimistically ranked. JSN has Metcalf and Lockett to contend with and Flowers has Bateman and Andrews and an offense that is still a question mark. Lastly, Lazard spent the last two years being the only option Rodgers “trusted” in GB and only managed a WR 35 & 47 season. Maybe I’m too low at 76 but there just feels like so many players with a higher upside who’s top trait isn’t blocking.

 

Tier 7 – Lottery Tickets
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff
WR80	Van Jefferson	LAR	76	602	5	131	78	2
WR81	Mecole Hardman	NYJ	63	512	5	124	86	-5
WR82	John Metchie III	HOU	72	542	3	123	75	7
WR83	Parris Campbell	NYG	68	490	2	109	84	-1
WR84	Marvin Jones Jr	DET	55	429	4	97	92	-8
WR85	Josh Reynolds	DET	55	408	3	91	96	-11
WR86	Chase Claypool	CHI	51	365	3	83	77	9
WR87	Cedrick Wilson	MIA	54	428	4	102	96	-9
WR88	Kyle Philips	TEN	68	456	3	106	96	-8
WR89	Isaiah McKenzie	IND	77	454	4	122	96	-7
WR90	Ben Skowronek	LAR	52	371	2	81	96	-6
WR91	Odell Beckham Jr	BAL	47	371	3	84	47	44
WR92	Tyler Scott	CHI	40	358	3	82	96	-4
WR93	Rashid Shaheed	NO	37	394	2	83	70	23
WR94	Khalil Shakir	BUF	54	414	3	85	87	7
WR95	Scott Miller	ATL	61	408	4	100	96	-1
WR96	Samori Toure	GB	54	420	2	81	96	0
WR97	Greg Dortch	ARI	58	409	3	106	96	1
WR98	Kendrick Bourne	NE	59	446	3	102	96	2
WR99	Devante Parker	NE	59	455	3	95	93	6
WR100	Kayshon Boutte	NE	56	413	2	93	96	4
WR101	Olamide Zaccheaus	PHI	53	437	3	94	96	5