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Friday, July 21, 2023

2023 Fantasy Football - 1st Rankings - PPR Tight Ends

 Tight end has the weirdest structure of any position, it’s incredibly top heavy and then the tiers bloat. Almost has a Fibonacci sequence vibe. I’m either going top 5 or I’m going to wait and grab a couple late and hope I get TE 10 out of it.

 

Note: TE1 is a player finishing 1-12, TE 1 is a specific position

 

Tier 1 – The Travis Kelce Tier

Rank

Player

Tm

Tar

Rec

Yds

Rec

TD

FP

Pos

ADP

Diff

TE1

Travis Kelce

KC

155

1326

10

303

1

0

 

He’s the best and in a tier of his own until he isn’t and then he probably gets a second stinker or retirement before he gets replaced in redraft.

 

Rank

Player

Tm

Tar

Rec

Yds

Rec

TD

FP

Pos

ADP

Diff

TE2

Mark Andrews

BAL

131

1046

8

240

2

0

TE3

TJ Hockenson

MIN

145

1097

7

248

3

0

 

Andrews and Hockenson have next level opportunities in the offenses they inhabit, Andrews gets the nod over Hock because he’s been more consistent but Cousins showed his trust in Hockenson immediately off the bat.

 

Rank

Player

Tm

Tar

Rec

Yds

Rec

TD

FP

Pos

ADP

Diff

TE4

George Kittle

SF

92

815

6

184

4

0

TE5

Kyle Pitts

ATL

73

535

6

131

6

-1

 

Kittle and Pitts are opposites for me, I know what I’m getting from Kittle but I think his ceiling is limited because of the offense, his role, and the talent around him. Pitts is more volatile but his upside is tremendous and there’s 2 other interesting skill position options in Atlanta.

 

Rank

Player

Tm

Tar

Rec

Yds

Rec

TD

FP

Pos

ADP

Diff

TE6

Dalton Schultz

HOU

72

492

5

130

11

-5

TE7

Dallas Goedert

PHI

72

590

6

147

5

2

TE8

Pat Freiermuth

PIT

93

608

6

161

9

-1

TE9

Darren Waller

NYG

82

616

6

155

7

2

TE10

Evan Engram

JAX

91

606

5

148

8

2

 

Schultz is my first “big” reach, I can’t defend this too much but a good receiving tight end for a rookie QB on a team with no real ball dominating receiving options, who’s coming off 3 straight TE1 seasons. This tier is the last of where I feel overly comfortable with players. So maybe I just need to make sure I draft one of these 10 to feel comfortable at TE.

 

Rank

Player

Tm

Tar

Rec

Yds

Rec

TD

FP

Pos

ADP

Diff

TE11

Tyler Higbee

LAR

107

759

5

177

15

-4

TE12

Dawson Knox

BUF

76

571

7

146

21

-9

TE13

David Njoku

CLE

95

737

6

168

10

3

TE14

Greg Dulcich

DEN

71

544

4

121

16

-2

TE15

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TEN

68

585

5

136

14

1

TE16

Juwan Johnson

NO

66

471

5

117

17

-1

TE17

Irv Smith Jr

CIN

73

532

5

138

19

-2

TE18

Isaiah Likely

BAL

66

445

4

108

29

-11

TE19

Cole Kmet

CHI

63

435

3

102

12

7

TE20

Cade Otton

TB

57

374

3

92

35

-15

TE21

Jake Ferguson

DAL

64

493

5

134

34

-13

 

Knox and Kincaid are obviously linked, and while Kincaid is the future of the position in Buffalo, first year TEs are notoriously fickle and start their careers in fits and starts. I think Kindcaid will have a role but I think we’re getting out in front of our skis when it comes to the hierarchy in Buffalo. Likely had 34 catches on 60 targets for 373 yards and a trio of TDs as a rookie. Now some of the pessimism is going to come from the fact that he had 103 of that on 13 targets in week 18, and that’s fair, but he showed in that game and on limited targets that he’s capable of being a very good receiving option and on a team with limited viable weapons a couple more targets a game and the opportunity for a massive workload if anything were to happen to Andrews makes him worth a flyer at least late at a position without exciting options in the middle. Otton is the starter for Tampa, he was TE 26 as a rookie in a very muddled depth chart last season, he’s not flashy and Baker is going to have a bunch of mouths to feed but 35 seems too low for the surefire starter on any roster. Ditto for Ferguson, he’s got Schoonmaker to challenge him but, and I know I sound like a broken record, rookies have a tough time adjusting to the league, even ones I really liked coming out. Dak has targeted his starting TE quite a bit and moving into his second year Ferguson gets a shot to at least inherent the majority of Schultz’s workload at least to start out.

                                                                                                                                

Rank

Player

Tm

Tar

Rec

Yds

Rec

TD

FP

Pos

ADP

Diff

TE22

Tyler Conklin

NYJ

82

594

4

140

26

-4

TE23

Gerald Everett

LAC

63

440

3

102

18

5

TE24

Zach Ertz

ARI

58

407

3

94

25

-1

TE25

Hunter Henry

NE

59

451

5

113

30

-5

TE26

Jelani Woods

IND

62

403

4

103

33

-7

TE27

Noah Fant

SEA

65

481

3

112

28

-1

TE28

Logan Thomas

WAS

67

502

3

114

36

-8

TE29

Trey McBride

ARI

49

338

2

82

27

2

TE30

Austin Hooper

LVR

60

469

4

114

38

-8

TE31

Luke Musgrave

GB

54

435

3

99

32

-1

TE32

Sam LaPorta

DET

41

308

3

78

20

12

TE33

Hayden Hurst

CAR

41

265

3

74

24

9

TE34

Will Dissly

SEA

43

349

4

93

38

-4

TE35

Luke Schoonmaker

DAL

43

331

3

81

37

-2

TE36

Dalton Kincaid

BUF

30

219

3

61

13

23

TE37

Michael Mayer

LVR

45

356

2

79

23

14

 

I noted my thoughts on the Buffalo tight ends above, and situation definitely dictates how I have the rookies ranked because they might, but probably won’t produce even if in great situation, Musgrave and LaPorta have the best year one chances.

 

Rank

Player

Tm

Tar

Rec

Yds

Rec

TD

FP

Pos

ADP

Diff

TE38

Jordan Akins

CLE

54

440

2

94

38

0

TE39

Noah Gray

KC

42

329

3

84

38

1

TE40

Tucker Kraft

GB

41

310

2

71

38

2

TE41

Durham Smythe

MIA

40

292

1

66

38

3

TE42

Mike Gesicki

NE

39

278

2

64

22

20

TE43

Taysom Hill

NO

13

97

2

80

31

12

TE44

Josh Whyle

TEN

43

326

2

75

38

6

TE45

Daniel Bellinger

NYG

27

196

2

52

38

7

TE46

Foster Moreau

NO

18

142

2

37

38

8

TE47

Jonnu Smith

ATL

32

218

2

56

38

9

TE48

Mo Alie-Cox

IND

46

313

3

80

38

10

TE49

CJ Uzomah

NYJ

22

161

1

39

38

11

TE50

Kylen Granson

IND

31

196

1

49

38

12

TE51

Peyton Hendershot

DAL

23

162

2

44

38

13

TE52

Brock Wright

DET

27

212

3

59

38

14

TE53

Adam Trautman

DEN

16

127

1

30

38

15

TE54

Chris Manhertz

DEN

29

217

2

51

38

16

TE55

Donald Parham

LAC

22

168

3

47

38

17

TE56

Robert Tonyan

CHI

13

96

1

27

38

18

TE57

Charlie Kolar

BAL

13

104

1

27

38

19

TE58

Josh Oliver

MIN

32

204

1

47

38

20

TE59

Colby Parkinson

SEA

28

220

2

55

38

21

TE60

John Bates

WAS

20

164

1

36

38

22

TE61

Devin Asiasi

CIN

23

137

2

35

38

23

TE62

Tommy Tremble

CAR

19

108

1

29

38

24

TE63

Ian Thomas

CAR

19

114

1

30

38

25

TE64

Ko Kieft

TB

14

107

1

27

38

26

TE65

Cameron Latu

SF

8

68

1

19

38

27

 

I kept this tier in because I wanted to talk about Gesicki and Hill. I have Hill 12 spots behind ADP, and to be honest the only thing that gives me pause is that he finished last year TE 9 in PPR. Having a solid if unspectacular QB would suggest a fair amount of his QB snaps dry up but if the goal line snaps continue, we will all be wrong. Gesicki is just us chasing the receiving TE in New England, he’s a liability as a blocker and if he takes over Jonnu’s targets (38) he’ll have the least targets of his career since his rookie season and his upside is mid to low end TE2. There are just so many guys I’d rather take a chance on than take Gesicki at what I think is going to be near his ceiling/most likely output.

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