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Thursday, August 25, 2016

2016 College Football Season: Damn it Cal-Hawaii: Part 2: The Non-Commital

It has been a few years now that I've been writing about, and picking, games for the college football season. Aside from the first year I haven't done that consistently to the fullest and for that I'm sorry. I am constantly trying to find something that I can do, that's not bullshit and hits on games that interest me each week. This is what I've come up with. It's sure to change throughout the year as I find it untenable, boring, or unsatisfying to do... So without further adieu, this is what I'm gonna do.

My preview each week is going to be a ramble about games and trends I find interesting. I'm going to shy away from droning on about statistics and am gonna focus on story lines I find interesting or infuriating. There will still be some stats obviously. I won't touch on most games, and some weeks there will be relatively few, but I hope to write something each week and pick some winners. This seems like it should be a useful exercise that will help shed some light on crutch arguments we all use and think about while also still be semi-entertaining. This will most likely be a disaster,and on at least one week I'm going to do this column without any punctuation and just type it how it runs through my head. I'll save that for mid-season when we're all a little bit insane. So yeah, here's week one. Tell me what you think after this or in the future as I nail down how I'm going to do this.

Sunday, August 21, 2016

2016 College Football Season: Damn it Cal-Hawaii: Part 1: The Awakening

Here we are again, Week 1 forthcoming and another season of getting beat at picking games by my unthinking spread sheet. As we start a new year a quick refresher, H & A rating are my power rank of each team, HFA is home field advantage, spread is what my system sees as the difference between the two teams, date & time are straight forward, and the last column is where you can watch the game. I'll keep track of how my system does again this season, and hope some tweaks I've made will make this the most successful season I've had.

2016 College Football Season: An Intro

I'll be putting my 1-128 rankings on a permanent page this season. I also did a little 2017 draft/2017 CFB prep by making some positional watch lists which will be in pages that you can use as the season goes along. Those are on the right side of the website page.

Without further adieu, my intro to the 2016 college football season. This is a supplement to more in depth breakdown coming and a breakdown of my rankings by conference.

The numbers go as such after division:
Rating/Home Field Advantage/Overall Rank/Conference Rank

2016 College Football Season: Lists (Oh Yeah!)

Alright so I finished up my pre-season rankings for my prediction system so I decided to make some lists to illustrate some things that came from that. 

Top 25
Rank
Team
Conference
Rating
HFA
1
Alabama
SEC
30.37
5.49
2
LSU
SEC
30.33
5.46
3
Stanford
PAC
29.03
3.91
4
USC
PAC
28.11
4.20
5
Tennessee
SEC
26.93
5.39
6
Washington State
PAC
23.19
3.14
7
Washington
PAC
22.57
4.09
8
Michigan
B1G
22.42
5.73
9
Clemson
ACC
22.40
5.15
10
Florida State
ACC
21.51
4.57
11
Utah
PAC
21.46
3.91
12
Georgia
SEC
21.39
5.25
13
Arkansas
SEC
21.00
4.24
14
Oklahoma
BXII
20.67
5.12
15
North Carolina
ACC
19.60
3.51
16
Oklahoma State
BXII
19.59
4.02
17
Florida
SEC
19.10
5.11
18
Mississippi State
SEC
19.05
4.30
19
Oregon
PAC
19.01
4.38
20
Michigan State
B1G
18.56
4.67
21
Louisville
ACC
17.49
3.77
22
BYU
Indep
17.13
3.99
23
Pittsburgh
ACC
16.92
3.02
24
Texas A&M
SEC
15.97
5.54
25
UCLA
PAC
15.86
3.99

Monday, August 15, 2016

Second 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings: TEs/DEFs/Ks

The last three position groups. Hope to get a rookie thing done this week and start to work on the final rankings heading into the second and third weeks of the pre-season.

Pre Ladarius Green news for TEs
TEs are Name | Tm | Tier | Overall ADP (Positional ADP)
Kickers are Name | Tm | Overall ADP (Positional ADP)
Defenses are Team | Overall ADP (Positional ADP)


Top 16 TEs
Top 16 DEFs
Top 16 Ks
Rob Gronkowski | NE | 1 | 9 (1)
Denver | 104 (1)
Stephen Gostkowski | NE | 133 (1)
Greg Olsen | CAR | 2 | 45 (3)
Minnesota | 173 (8)
Justin Tucker | BAL | 185 (3)
Jordan Reed | WAS | 2 | 37 (2)
Carolina | 130 (4)
Stephen Hauschka | SEA | 163 (2)
Delanie Walker | TEN | 2 | 71 (6)
Seattle | 110 (2)
Dan Bailey | DAL | 193 (5)
Travis Kelce | KC | 3 | 63 (4)
Los Angeles | 164 (7)
Graham Gano | CAR | 187 (4)
Gary Barnidge | CLE | 3 | 91 (8)
Arizona | 126 (3)
Blair Walsh | MIN | 220 (11)
Coby Fleener | NO | 3 | 78 (7)
Houston | 141 (5)
Mason Crosby | GB | 204 (8)
Tyler Eifert | CIN | 3 | 68 (5)
Kansas City | 143 (6)
Mike Nugent | CIN | n/a
Ladarius Green | PIT | 4 | 96 (9)
New York (A) | 179 (9)
Adam Vinatieri | IND | 211 (9)
Zach Ertz | PHI | 4 | 99 (10)
Washington | n/a
Chandler Catanzaro | ARI | 201 (6)
Antonio Gates | SD | 4 | 128 (13)
Cincinnati | 188 (10)
Josh Brown | NYG | 242 (14)
Martellus Bennett | NE | 4 | 138 (15)
Detroit | n/a
Dan Carpenter | BUF | n/a
Eric Ebron | DET | 4 | 137 (14)
Green Bay | 224 (15)
Sebastian Janikowski | OAK | 265 (17)
Dwayne Allen | IND | 4 | 150 (16)
Jacksonville | 230 (16)
Matt Prater | DET | 236 (13)
Julius Thomas | JAC | 4 | 101 (11)
Oakland | 218 (14)
Brandon McManus | DEN | 212 (10)
Jimmy Graham | SEA | 5 | 116 (12)
New England | 190 (11)
Greg Zeurlein | LAR | n/a

Second 2016 Fantasy Rankings: Wide Receivers

Sorry this got delayed, but my brother got married and I had zero time to work on this over the weekend. WR has been my best category over the past couple of seasons, but unlike the last two years I don’t really have a player that I’m targeting for a breakout so far and above the crowd. Each column is a tier, in each cell you’ll find Name | Team | ADP (Positional ADP). Enjoy and don’t be afraid to tell me how much of an idiot I am.
Elite Tier (1-5)
Very Good Tier (6-15)
Good w/ Specific Questions (16-25)
Antonio Brown | PIT | 1 (1)
Allen Robinson | JAC | 14 (7)
Demaryious Thomas | DEN | 32 (17)
Julio Jones | ATL | 4 (3)
Keenan Allen | SD | 25 (13)
Sammy Watkins | BUF | 29 (15)
Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 2 (2)
Brandon Marshall | NYJ | 24 (12)
Brandin Cooks | NO | 27 (14)
A.J. Green | CIN | 11 (5)
Jordy Nelson | GB | 16 (8)
Julian Edelman | NE | 44 (21)
DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 6 (4)
Dez Bryant | DAL | 12 (6)
Doug Baldwin | SEA | 47 (23)

Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 18 (9)
Michael Floyd | ARI | 55 (25)

Randall Cobb | GB | 38 (19)
Jeremy Maclin | KC | 46 (22)

T.Y. Hilton | IND | 31 (16)
Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 34 (18)

Mike Evans | TB | 20 (10)
Jarvis Landry | MIA | 42 (20)

Amari Cooper | OAK | 23 (11)
Golden Tate | DET | 49 (24)

No disagreement between me and ADP on the top five, just a little reorganization. With Jones & Green getting the nod because of target volume. My first big disagreement is Keenan Allen who I have as a mid-WR1 and ADP is drafting him as the first WR2. Allen had a lacerated spleen which just gets piled on injury-prone but it’s a freak thing. When heathy he’s going to eclipse 100 catches easily and is by far the best weapon for Rivers. Cobb is another player I’m a good bit higher on than the concensus. When Nelson has been healthy Cobb has been a WR1 and I don’t see why that would change with Nelson back and healthy. Am I taking some risk that Nelson won’t be his usual self? Sure, but I’ll take the upside play and see what happens. Marvin Jones is criminally underrated by people. He has good hands and feet and was misused by the Bengals as mostly a deep threat. Tate is going to be the leading target getter but Jones will be the more efficient of the two and is a great value right now. Austin was useful last season and seemed to finally have a coaching staff and offensive scheme that wanted to use his talents instead of forcing a square peg in a round hole. I have Austin 14 spots higher than ADP and I think Austin is one of three players I want to have from the Rams. Kamar Aiken may be the most overlooked player in fantasy right now. Aiken is going to be the best receiver on the Ravens and he was quietly pretty good last season. So yes I think Aiken is going to be must more valuable than a 14th round pick and WR56. Kendall Wright is the only Tennessee receiver I trust and that’s worth something and apparently I’m alone in this belief. Bruce Ellington is just behind Aiken for being overlooked by most fantasy football players. Ellington has the volume upside from Chip Kelly’s offense and will be much more efficient than Torrey Smith without the big play upside. Lastly are Terrance Williams and Victor Cruz. They are both relatively known quantities, but both are extremely overrated to me. Cruz is still working back from his Achilles injury and he isn’t a spring chicken, and the prognosis for that injury is bad. Williams perennially under-achieves as the Cowboys #2 and should have someone breathing down his neck if the Cowboys have competent roster management.

Good NFL #2s (26-48)
Who are you? (49-70)
Sure I’ll give it a Spin (71-90)
Eric Decker | NYJ | 58 (27)
Markus Wheaton | PIT | 122 (48)
Robert Woods | BUF | 254 (80)
Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 56 (26)
Dorial Green-Beckham | TEN | 103 (42)
Davante Adams | GB | 229 (74)
Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 61 (28)
Travis Benjamin | SD | 112 (44)
Pharoh Cooper | LAR | 226 (73)
Marvin Jones | DET | 90 (38)
Vincent Jackson | TB | 134 (51)
Leonte Carroo | MIA | 231 (75)
Donte Moncrief | IND | 65 (30)
Phillip Dorsett | IND | 148 (55)
Jermaine Kearse | SEA | 205 (70)
Tyler Lockett | SEA | 84 (35)
Mohammed Sanu | ATL | 159 (57)
Anquan Boldin | DET | 219 (72)
John Brown | ARI | 73 (33)
Steve Smith Sr | BAL | 120 (46)
Tajae Sharpe | TEN | 250 (79)
Michael Crabtree | OAK | 86 (37)
Devin Funchess | CAR | 146 (54)
Jaelen Strong | HOU | 263 (84)
Jordan Matthews | PHI | 62 (29)
Sammie Coates | PIT | 169 (60)
Albert Wilson | KC | n/a
Allen Hurns | JAC | 67 (32)
Chris Hogan | NE | 171 (61)
Jamison Crowder | WAS | n/a
Tavon Austin | LAR | 125 (50)
Tyler Boyd | CIN | 183 (64)
Brandin Coleman | NO | 267 (85)
Kamar Aiken | BAL | 152 (56)
Josh Gordon | CLE | 123 (49)
Terrance Williams | DAL | 178 (62)
Kevin White | CHI | 83 (34)
Ted Ginn Jr | CAR | 191 (68)
Stevie Johnson | SD | 257 (82)
Torrey Smith | SF | 117 (45)
Kenny Britt | LAR | 255 (81)
Charles Johnson | MIN | n/a
DeSean Jackson | WAS | 85 (36)
Pierre Garcon | WAS | 186 (66)
Andrew Hawkins | CLE | n/a
DeVante Parker | MIA | 66 (31)
Mike Wallace | BAL | 180 (63)
Victor Cruz | NYG | 189 (67)
Stefon Diggs | MIN | 107 (43)
Will Fuller | HOU | 162 (58)
Justin Hardy | ATL | n/a
Willie Snead | NO | 121 (47)
Nelson Agholor | PHI | 184 (65)
Jeff Janis | GB | n/a
Lequan Treadwell | MIN | 102 (41)
Rishard Matthews | TEN | 197 (69)
DeAndre Smelter | SF | 262 (83)
Sterling Shepard | NYG | 98 (40)

Malcolm Mitchell | NE | 243 (78)
Michael Thomas | NO | 139 (52)


Corey Coleman | CLE | 92 (39)


Kendall Wright | TEN | 209 (71)




So WR is solid up top and starts to go downhill at about your third option where everything is fluid. There’s a lot of passing talent in the league and pass attempts aren’t going down any time soon. Hitting on a couple late round receivers certainly will help, but few have regretted grabbing a bona fide stud early.