2025 NFL Draft - Round 1 Grades & Analysis

With being at the draft, grades, and recaps are a bit different this year. Little less instant reaction, and a little more time to breath. Grades are from the morning after so my write ups and may grades might seem a bit off at times.

 

I also decided that how I grade trades needed to be adjusted a little bit so I’ve added a revised version of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart by Rich Hill at DraftTek that is based off of recent trends and makes adjustments to values making it a bit more accurate. My trade grades are 60% historical AV of the pick and 40% NFL trade charts (25% Hill, 15% Johnson). The grades are based on the fact that you’re going to be giving up a bit of a premium on a trade up with a 12.5% to 17.5% trade deficit for the trade up team being a C for each team with grades moving in 5% increments with to larger grade jumps for extreme deficits and positive value when moving up.

 

Being in person for the first time in a decade was great and the atmosphere was electric, there weren’t too many stunners early outside of the Jags-Browns trade coming to fruition. The buzz around Shedeur and subsequently the Dart pick, the crowd going crazy for the Packers pick, and the general “huh?” or “who?” any time a non-skill position player was picked were some of the most fun parts of both days but especially the first round.

 

Round 1 Grades and Analysis
Pre-Draft Trade – CLE gets 166, ’27 5th Grade: A | HOU gets 179, 216, 255 Grade: F Pick Value Difference – 16.4% to Cleveland
Ovr Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Player Grade	MAAG	Pick	Team	Pick Grade
18	Cam Ward	QB	MiFL	6.2	5.70	1	TEN	A-
Trade – JAX gets 2, 104, 200 Grade: D | CLE gets 5, 36, 126 & ’26 1st Grade: B Pick Value Difference – 23.5% to Cleveland
1	Travis Hunter	CB	COLO	7.4	6.38	2	JAX	A
2	Abdul Carter	EDGE	PSU	7.5	6.27	3	NYG	A
6	Will Campbell	OT	LSU	7.3	6.03	4	NE	A

Outside of the trade the start off the draft this was pretty much on consensus, there is definitely something to be said about Campbell not being the sure-fire guy many talked about him as but even then, this was still on-par for where he was expected to go. Even though I gave it a A- I think the Ward pick was necessary I just wasn’t completely wowed by him when watching a bit closer than during the season.

 

5	Mason Graham	INT	MICH	7.3	6.03	5	CLE	A
38	Ashton Jeanty	RB	BSU	7.6	5.42	6	LVR	B-
21	Armand Membou	OT	MIZZ	6.9	5.67	7	NYJ	B
3	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	ARI	7.3	6.24	8	CAR	A
46	Kelvin Banks Jr	OT	UT	6.5	5.31	9	NO	C+
19	Colston Loveland	TE	MICH	7.4	5.69	10	CHI	C+

I was relatively higher on Graham than most and thought it was a good pick for Cleveland. Was actually a bit surprised that Jeanty went to Vegas at 6 as it felt like the type of pick that was mocked for months that all of sudden doesn’t happen during the draft. Jeanty is a great back, but I’m not a huge fan of RB this early but at least understand it with a back like Jeanty. Tet to Carolina was a nice surprise considering it wasn’t something I had heard any inkling of leading into the draft and gives Young a legit #1 as I didn’t see Legette as that type of player last year. Finishing out the top 10 I think Banks is fine if unspectacular as he’s a bit of a tweener who I think sticks at tackle but I wasn’t as impressed with as some, Loveland for his part is a really good player I just think Warren was the best TE in the class and when you’re going to go a little non-traditional in the early first I think it should be for the best player at the position.

 

9	Mykel Williams	EDGE	UGA	7.1	5.91	11	SF	A
13	Tyler Booker	G	ALA	7.2	5.83	12	DAL	A
42	Kenneth Grant	INT	MICH	6.6	5.39	13	MIA	B-
12	Tyler Warren	TE	PSU	7.6	5.86	14	IND	A
29	Jalon Walker	EDGE	UGA	6.7	5.54	15	ATL	B-
47	Walter Nolan	INT	MISS	6.5	5.29	16	ARI	C+
28	Shemar Stewart	EDGE	aTm	6.7	5.54	17	CIN	B-

 Walker, Nolan, Stewart, is a fun run from the first round because they’re all ceiling guys. Walker played a lot of off-ball this year but shows special burst when allowed to rush and sounds like he’ll be an edge in Atlanta, Nolan is incredibly talented but he’s been inconsistent and there’s motor questions, Stewart is incredibly physically talented as well but he had trouble converting pressures into sacks and TFLs but has the size/speed/power combo that is incredibly special.

 

15	Grey Zabel	C	NDSU	7.3	5.80	18	SEA	A
11	Emeka Egbuka	WR	OSU	6.9	5.87	19	TB	A
25	Jahdae Barron	CB	UT	6.6	5.60	20	DEN	A-
26	Derrick Harmon	INT	ORE	6.8	5.57	21	PIT	A+
61	Omarion Hampton	RB	UNC	7.2	5.12	22	LAC	C+
4	Matthew Golden	WR	UT	7.1	6.05	23	GB	A+

 An interesting group of guys from 20-23, Barron is a smaller corner and most likely aslot corner at the next level but adds to a talented secondary for Denver. I was a little surprised with Hampton still there that he wasn’t the pick for the Broncos as there was a lot of smoke there, instead Hampton ends up on the Chargers that should be exciting news from a purely football standpoint and for fantasy. The Packers pick was so much fun in person, and felt like we were chanting and screaming for what felt like 15 minutes and the roar was incredible when the pick happened and again when Golden came out on stage.

 

17	Donovan Jackson	G	OSU	7.1	5.74	24	MIN	A
Trade – NYG gets 25 Grade: F | HOU gets 34, 99, ’26 3rd Grade: A Pick Value Difference – 35% to Houston
39	Jaxson Dart	QB	MISS	5.9	5.40	25	NYG	B

 I obviously didn’t have Dart ahead of Sanders, and while I think it was a mistake I wasn’t as low on Dart as many. With that said, a GM and Coach with a short leash drafting a quarterback they say they don’t plan to start and giving up a 2nd and 3rd rounder that could have been good short and long term pieces starts to make me question both process and the potential results.

 

Trade – ATL gets 26 & 101 Grade: B- | LAR gets 46, 242 & ’26 1st Grade: D+ Pick Value Difference – 4% to Los Angeles (N)
43	James Pearce Jr	EDGE	TENN	6.5	5.35	26	ATL	B
30	Malaki Starks	S	UGA	7.1	5.53	27	BAL	A
92	Tyleik Willliams	INT	OSU	6.0	4.83	28	DET	C-
122	Josh Conerly Jr	OT	ORE	5.7	4.58	29	WAS	D
7	Maxwell Hairston	CB	UK	7.0	5.99	30	BUF	A+
Trade – PHI gets 31 Grade: C+ | KC gets 32 & 164 Grade: C- Pick Value Difference – 9.8% to Kansas City
10	Jihaad Campbell	OBLB	ALA	7.3	5.90	31	PHI	A+
100	Josh Simmons	OT	OSU	5.9	4.77	32	KC	C

 To finish out picks 26-32 Pearce was my best Edge player available but just felt like value overall was a bit of a stretch. Starks fits here well although I would have gone Emmanwori but it was close. Williams was a solid reach in my opinion, I didn’t hate him and there was only TJ sanders still available from my interior ranks I just don’t think he has the juice that I’d want from a first round DT. Conerly and Campbell were two tackles that just left me wanting more but I understand wanting/needing to add offensive line for both teams. Hariston and Campbell were fantastic picks. Hariston comes downhill really well and ran 4.25, while Campbell feels like a continuation of the Eagles stretch where they get great players way, way later than they should have gone and get a chess piece for Fangio to move around the board.