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Monday, September 18, 2017

2017 College Football: Week 4 Top 25s

Yes, you read that right Top 25s. I'm bringing a new concept to the rankings posts this week as I test out a new system for the remainder of the season. That means I'll have two sets of 1-130 (Experimental & Usual) and now two sets of Top 25s. I'm not sure if I'm going to put out the full predictions for the new system, but I'll have either a page or a post about the results each week as I try to hone my system.

It's been a while since I've screwed around with a new system, and to be honest I'm excited because this new set is going to include some concepts that I had juggled a bit but never really felt like I had a good way of implementing.

In the current system there wasn't much shakeup as everyone performed and Auburn is officially my 2016 LSU for 2017. At the bottom Vandy takes a well deserved step up, Oregon continues to surprise and impress, A&M finally leaves the top 25.

Rank
 Team
Rating
Last
Week
Rank
1
Alabama
29.954
1
2
Washington
23.653
2
3
Clemson
23.135
3
4
Ohio State
21.453
4
5
Florida State
19.530
5
6
Penn State
19.416
6
7
Auburn
17.700
7
8
USC
17.648
9
9
Colorado
17.543
8
10
Washington State
17.515
10
11
Oklahoma
16.124
11
12
Wisconsin
16.044
12
13
Oklahoma State
14.107
14
14
Georgia
13.545
13
15
Tennessee
11.643
15
16
Michigan
11.557
16
17
Virginia Tech
11.189
18
18
Vanderbilt
10.858
21
19
Louisville
10.744
17
20
Oregon
10.486
26
21
Georgia Tech
10.362
19
22
Kentucky
10.108
25
23
LSU
9.998
20
24
USF
9.608
23
25
TCU
9.452
24
Dropped Out
27
Texas A&M
9.433
22

For the experimental set there is more turnover up top, or at least there has been before this week. This set also, to my mind, the gap that there currently is between Alabama/Clemson and the rest of the country. The nice thing about this set as well is that Oklahoma/Oklahoma State have moved towards their true value quicker. Kentucky and Oregon are the big movers this week after solid wins, while LSU/South Carolina take big falls after disappointing results this week. No Mississippi State yet in the top 25, they currently sit at 27, but they took an 11 spot jump and are lurking just outside.

Rank
 Team
Rating
Last
Week
Rank
1
Alabama
36.850
1
2
Clemson
31.281
3
3
Washington
26.589
2
4
Ohio State
24.346
5
5
Oklahoma
23.343
7
6
Penn State
23.132
4
7
USC
23.131
6
8
Oklahoma State
22.218
13
9
Colorado
20.486
8
10
Wisconsin
20.342
14
11
Washington State
20.323
11
12
Florida State
19.530
9
13
Auburn
18.122
10
14
Georgia
17.125
12
15
Michigan
16.486
15
16
Vanderbilt
15.959
22
17
Oregon
15.461
25
18
Kentucky
14.618
27
19
TCU
14.567
21
20
Virginia Tech
13.466
19
21
USF
13.059
24
22
Iowa
12.788
23
23
Louisville
12.759
16
24
Tennessee
12.068
17
25
Minnesota
11.900
28
Dropped Out
28
LSU
10.415
18
30
South Carolina
9.496
20
It will be interesting to see what happens with both sets of rankings. I'm worried about over-corrections over the year with the new rankings, but efficiency adjustments based on points and yards may help stabilize this new set of rankings.

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