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Wednesday, September 6, 2017

2017 College Football: Week 2: Deep Dive

 Welcome to week 2's deep dive. A deeper slate than week 1, but still a large number of FCS games to dilute the slate.

Best Matchups
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Rating
Away
Rating
My
Spread
Date
Average
Clemson
Auburn
22.209
19.657
7.55
9-Sep
20.933
Ohio State
Oklahoma
23.096
15.034
13.755
9-Sep
19.065
USC
Stanford
18.199
8.195
13.978
9-Sep
13.197
Penn State
Pittsburgh
20.548
4.294
21.553
9-Sep
12.421
Washington State
Boise State
18.079
1.285
20.058
9-Sep
9.682

The matchups here are what you’d expect to see this week. Wider spreads, from me at least, than we might like, but marquee matchups, in every part of the country. I’m not sure we get answers from any of the results outside of PSU-Pitt and, maybe, USC-Stanford. If the offense for the Nittany Lions keeps humming against the Panthers then we’re in for a pretty great B1G East race. Likewise, a USC loss this week continues the creep of doubt caused by the first 3 quarters of the Western Michigan game. The Clemson-Auburn game and OSU-OU game matter from a playoff standpoint, maybe, but what result from those two games would really change your mind on any of those four teams. Wazzou-Boise would have more buzz for me if I knew what Colorado State was in regard to Boise and the Mountain West. As it stands, this is a very good and fun matchup of Pac-12 #4 or #5 vs MWC #1 or #2, but I’m not sure the victory helps either team all that much.

Worst Matchups
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Rating
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Rating
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Spread
Date
Average
Ball State
UAB
-16.157
-22.5
7.023
9-Sep
-19.33
UTEP
Rice
-17.742
-17.615
1.491
9-Sep
-17.68
Kansas
Central Michigan
-17.663
-7.88
-7.812
9-Sep
-12.77
New Mexico
New Mexico State
-7.508
-15.685
9.921
9-Sep
-11.6
UMASS
Old Dominion
-15.642
-6.226
-8.717
9-Sep
-10.93

These are all relatively close, bad games. Kansas-CMU is interesting, because I’m intrigued by what Kansas is at this stage in the rebuild. That’s about all I can find though in these matchups.

Closest Matchups
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Rating
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Spread
Date
Boston College
Wake Forest
1.502
4.584
-0.502
9-Sep
Missouri
South Carolina
3.55
6.707
0.533
9-Sep
UTEP
Rice
-17.742
-17.615
1.491
9-Sep
BYU
Utah
2.725
8.291
-1.6
9-Sep
Purdue
Ohio
-8.751
-8.074
1.783
8-Sep

One bad game (UTEP-Rice), one interesting game between divergent styles (Mizzou-South Carolina), the Holy War (BYU-Utah), one Midwest intrigue (Purdue-Ohio), and a mediocre ACC showdown (BC-Wake). Mizzou-South Carolina is a battle of wills. Mizzou in a drastic change in strategy wants to play with pace this season, while South Carolina and young phenom Jake Bentley wants to play at a much more measured, yet efficient tempo. Plus, after surprising results week 1, we’ll get a better idea of what these teams are going to be. If I can be honest with you, dear reader, the game of these five that I’m most curious about is Purdue-Ohio. Ohio isn’t horrible for a MAC team and Purdue showed much more fight against Louisville than I expected and it’ll be interesting to see how much, if any, consistency Brohm has brought to West Lafayette in year 1. I’m not sure what needs to be said other than to point out again that the game is called the Holy War. BC-Wake is the closest rated here, and a slog-fest that I can’t in good faith encourage you to watch.

Biggest Ratings Gaps
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Rating
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Rating
My
Spread
Date
Alabama
Fresno State
32.211
-18.351
56.033
9-Sep
Florida State
ULM
21.7
-9.453
35.758
9-Sep
Wisconsin
FAU
15.855
-14.793
35.416
9-Sep
Kansas State
Charlotte
9.213
-16.817
30.205
9-Sep
Michigan
Cincinnati
12.152
-9.192
27.064
9-Sep

Not much to see here, I don’t think any of the underdogs has any real shot of the upset, and the only real intrigue is how FSU’s backup looks.

Alright, week 2 has a nice slate of top rated matchups, and plenty of intrigue. So enjoy, and try not to get overwhelmed by an absolutely loaded evening slate.

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