I did not have a review out this week (not because I had a shit week, which I did) because I went out Saturday and got way behind. So a quick recap, Week 4 was shit, I was on TCU, NMSU, Toledo and NC State who all failed to cover leaving Kent State as the lone team to save me from an 0-5 week.
Heading into Week 5 I have to do better.. the bankroll is at $10,172.27 which is a ROI of 15.66% right now. Oh and as a friend suggested I need to show a little more conviction on my picks than I did last week.
Note: We are basing this on a 1 unit bet of $100 dollars and unless noted otherwise the odds are -110.
Kansas at TCU (-16)
TCU lost the battle for the skillet last week and was one of our big disappointments but they get their conference opener against a Kansas team that can't spread the ball around like SMU and is going to have trouble moving the ball on TCU and the Horned Frogs offense should bounce back for a nice thrashing to open the conference season at home.
BYU at Toledo (+120)
Toledo hosts BYU who has beaten Tennessee and USC, and lost to Utah and Washington this season but is on it's fifth game of the year without a cupcake and now has a road trip to a Toledo team with a good offense that should be able to pounce on a BYU team in a 9:00 am local time game, if it comes out sluggish. Toledo's offense is the best unit in this game by some margin and is the reason I would take Toledo as the money line favorite in this game.
The last three are all similar types of bets.
UTEP at Southern Miss (-26)
I've highlighted teams playing UTEP in the past and the same holds here. Southern Miss is a solid offensive team, and UTEP is very, very bad. Bet this one as long as it stays under 28.
UNLV at Wyoming (-9.5)
Wyoming should have just enough offense to capitalize on their defense stymieing UNLV for the entire game.
New Mexico at Liberty (-7)
New Mexico edged our ML play out by 3 in their rivalry game against NMSU last week, but they should come through for us with Liberty this week. Liberty isn't good at anything but New Mexico has a bottom 2 defense and if there's one thing chair enthusiast Hugh Freeze can do is game plan an offense.
I hope I was a little more confident this week and gave you some more information about why I'm confident we'll bounce back this week. Enjoy the football, gamble responsibly, and we'll see you next week.
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