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Monday, September 30, 2019

2019 College Football: Week 5 - Best Bets Review


A short but sweet post this week. I swear I published these last Wednesday or Thursday but alas it appears I didn’t so here are what I had last week:

TCU -16
Toledo +120
Southern Miss -26
Wyoming -9.5
Liberty -7

And… we went 3.5/5. Liberty only beat by New Mexico by 7, and Southern Miss only won by a couple handfuls instead of 27 or more. Other than that TCU beat up Kansas, Toledo snuck one out over BYU, and Wyoming beat UNLV by 36. All in all, that netter our coffers $201.82 with an ROI of 40.36%.

This brings our season total to $10,374.09, and an ROI of 34.01%.

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

2019 College Football: Week 5 - Best Bets

I did not have a review out this week (not because I had a shit week, which I did) because I went out Saturday and got way behind. So a quick recap, Week 4 was shit, I was on TCU, NMSU, Toledo and NC State who all failed to cover leaving Kent State as the lone team to save me from an 0-5 week.
Heading into Week 5 I have to do better.. the bankroll is at $10,172.27 which is a ROI of 15.66% right now. Oh and as a friend suggested I need to show a little more conviction on my picks than I did last week.

Note: We are basing this on a 1 unit bet of $100 dollars and unless noted otherwise the odds are -110.

Kansas at TCU (-16)
TCU lost the battle for the skillet last week and was one of our big disappointments but they get their conference opener against a Kansas team that can't spread the ball around like SMU and is going to have trouble moving the ball on TCU and the Horned Frogs offense should bounce back for a nice thrashing to open the conference season at home.

BYU at Toledo (+120)
Toledo hosts BYU who has beaten Tennessee and USC, and lost to Utah and Washington this season but is on it's fifth game of the year without a cupcake and now has a road trip to a Toledo team with a good offense that should be able to pounce on a BYU team in a 9:00 am local time game, if it comes out sluggish. Toledo's offense is the best unit in this game by some margin and is the reason I would take Toledo as the money line favorite in this game.

The last three are all similar types of bets.
UTEP at Southern Miss (-26)
I've highlighted teams playing UTEP in the past and the same holds here. Southern Miss is a solid offensive team, and UTEP is very, very bad. Bet this one as long as it stays under 28.
UNLV at Wyoming (-9.5)
Wyoming should have just enough offense to capitalize on their defense stymieing UNLV for the entire game.
New Mexico at Liberty (-7)
New Mexico edged our ML play out by 3 in their rivalry game against NMSU last week, but they should come through for us with Liberty this week. Liberty isn't good at anything but New Mexico has a bottom 2 defense and if there's one thing chair enthusiast Hugh Freeze can do is game plan an offense.

I hope I was a little more confident this week and gave you some more information about why I'm confident we'll bounce back this week. Enjoy the football, gamble responsibly, and we'll see you next week.

2019 College Football: Week 5 - Picks and Viewers Guide


Certainly, a slower week than last week, but still some very interesting games.

Weekday Slate (Thursday & Friday)

Navy at Memphis (7:00 pm, ESPN)
This is fun Thursday game where a good team plays host to a triple option team and almost none of you reading this will watch because the Packers are on Thursday night.
Penn State at Maryland (7:00 pm, FS1)
The second what’s the Big Ten going to look like game in two weeks after the Wisconsin-Michigan game last week. Penn State had trouble with Pitt much later into the game than they probably should have. Maryland’s last showing was a disappointing showing on the road against Temple. I think Maryland is improved but Penn State is much more talented across the board.
Arizona State at California (9:30 pm, ESPN)
This is a scary one because Cal is clearly the better team, but this is #Pac12AfterDark and Herm’s luck mixed into one and that’s not great if you’re backing Cal. On a more serious note, Cal’s defense is legitimately good and the offense came alive against Ole Miss. Arizona State beat Michigan State in the least watchable game of the century and lost at home to Colorado.

Early Slate (11:00 am to 11:30 am)

Northwestern at Wisconsin (11:00 am, ABC)
It’s a bit of a sparse early slate but this could be interesting for a quarter or so with Wisconsin coming off a whooping of Michigan last week. Also, Northwestern always finds a way to keep this one close.
Northern Illinois at Vanderbilt (11:00 am, SEC Network)
Northern Illinois’s last marquee matchup (Nebraska) was much less exciting than it was expected to be but they should give Vandy a run for their money.
BYU at Toledo (11:00 am, ESPN+)
BYU’s swagger took a bit of a hit against Washington last week and are now 3-1 against FBS teams, and now get a stiff test in the Toledo Rockets. To make that test harder they travel east for an early game against a Toledo offense that’s good enough to take advantage of a slow start.
Texas A&M at Arkansas (11:00 am, ESPN)
Don’t watch this game, until it inevitably is a one score game with 2 minutes left because the ending will be the best kind of stupid possible (see: 4th & 25 from a few years back).

Home
Away
Home
Rating
Away
Rating
My
Spread
Win%
Date
Time
TV
Memphis
Navy
5.835
-7.309
15.218
66.5%
9/26
19:00
ESPN
Virginia Tech
Duke
6.698
11.807
-0.956
51.4%
9/27
18:00
ESPN
Maryland
Penn State
6.390
14.018
-4.891
55.6%
9/27
19:00
FS1
Air Force
San Jose State
0.362
-13.886
16.238
67.5%
9/27
19:00
CBSSN
California
Arizona State
11.117
5.761
7.802
58.6%
9/27
21:30
ESPN
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
28.674
2.330
31.449
83.8%
9/28
11:00
-
Michigan
Rutgers
18.249
-16.202
40.331
93.4%
9/28
11:00
BTN
Arkansas
Texas A&M
-12.171
11.110
-23.282
75.0%
9/28
11:00
ESPN
Wisconsin
Northwestern
17.180
2.521
19.416
70.9%
9/28
11:00
ABC
Iowa
Middle Tennessee
17.948
-8.943
31.228
83.5%
9/28
11:00
ESPN2
Syracuse
Holy Cross
10.454
-22.636
35.487
-
9/28
11:00
ACCN
Vanderbilt
Northern Illinois
-3.252
-0.652
-0.037
50.5%
9/28
11:00
SECN
TCU
Kansas
8.348
-6.783
18.848
70.3%
9/28
11:00
FS1
Miami (OH)
Buffalo
-10.556
-4.712
-4.137
54.8%
9/28
11:00
ESPNU
Western Michigan
Central Michigan
1.177
-17.327
20.045
71.6%
9/28
11:00
CBSSN
Toledo
BYU
-1.565
0.534
0.205
50.6%
9/28
11:00
ESPN+
Pittsburgh
Delaware
5.148
-22.636
30.062
-
9/28
11:30
ACCN
North Carolina
Clemson
-2.760
38.016
-37.498
90.3%
9/28
14:30
ABC
Alabama
Mississippi
36.837
-5.045
47.393
100.0%
9/28
14:30
CBS
Washington
USC
13.973
10.884
7.440
58.2%
9/28
14:30
FOX
Michigan State
Indiana
17.855
7.969
14.454
65.6%
9/28
14:30
BTN
Baylor
Iowa State
11.887
11.182
4.390
55.0%
9/28
14:30
ESPN
Purdue
Minnesota
0.170
13.955
-10.726
61.7%
9/28
14:30
ESPN2
Boston College
Wake Forest
0.092
10.983
-8.125
59.0%
9/28
14:30
ACCN
Temple
Georgia Tech
1.222
-3.797
6.303
57.1%
9/28
14:30
CBSSN
Notre Dame
Virginia
25.941
13.692
17.065
68.4%
9/28
14:30
NBC
Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina
11.427
-3.985
18.252
69.7%
9/28
14:30
ESPN+
Charlotte
FAU
-2.908
-7.061
6.268
57.0%
9/28
14:30
NFL
UMASS
Akron
-39.591
-31.510
-7.002
57.8%
9/28
14:30
-
Florida
Towson
23.462
-22.636
51.072
-
9/28
15:00
SECN
USF
SMU
-8.558
11.683
-18.379
69.8%
9/28
15:00
ESPNU
Marshall
Cincinnati
1.254
13.646
-10.691
61.7%
9/28
16:00
-
Georgia Southern
Louisiana
0.898
5.453
-2.799
53.4%
9/28
17:00
ESPN+
Liberty
New Mexico
-6.616
-17.048
11.922
63.0%
9/28
17:00
ESPN+
Old Dominion
East Carolina
-21.695
-12.703
-6.010
56.7%
9/28
17:00
ESPN+
Troy
Arkansas State
-1.234
-2.539
3.705
54.3%
9/28
17:00
ESPN+
Auburn
Mississippi State
24.288
12.754
16.541
67.9%
9/28
18:00
ESPN
UCF
Connecticut
17.783
-20.338
41.117
94.3%
9/28
18:00
ESPN2
Oregon State
Stanford
-4.903
-0.327
-1.837
52.4%
9/28
18:00
P12N
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
9.972
9.848
3.980
54.6%
9/28
18:00
ESPN+
Texas State
Nicholls State
-14.133
-22.636
9.861
-
9/28
18:00
ESPN3
ULM
South Alabama
-6.891
-23.864
17.472
68.8%
9/28
18:00
ESPN+
Southern Miss
UTEP
1.671
-35.915
39.484
92.5%
9/28
18:00
ESPN+
WKU
UAB
-23.053
-0.220
-20.932
72.5%
9/28
18:00
ESPN+
Rice
Louisiana Tech
-24.290
-0.667
-22.596
74.3%
9/28
18:00
ESPN3
Nebraska
Ohio State
7.898
32.755
-19.561
71.1%
9/28
18:30
ABC
Florida State
NC State
4.578
5.329
3.570
54.2%
9/28
18:30
ACCN
South Carolina
Kentucky
0.622
6.428
-1.140
51.6%
9/28
18:30
SECN
Utah State
Colorado State
6.044
-22.970
31.308
83.6%
9/28
18:30
CBSSN
Wyoming
UNLV
2.257
-17.478
21.550
73.2%
9/28
19:00
ESPNU
New Mexico State
Fresno State
-22.098
-1.287
-19.734
71.2%
9/28
19:00
-
North Texas
Houston
-5.043
-8.749
5.741
56.5%
9/28
19:00
-
Utah
Washington State
16.682
6.623
13.926
65.1%
9/28
21:00
FS1
Arizona
UCLA
2.881
-1.268
7.229
58.0%
9/28
21:30
ESPN
Nevada
Hawaii
-3.016
5.356
-6.794
57.6%
9/28
21:30
ESPN2

Midday Slate (2:30 pm to 3:00 pm)

Iowa State at Baylor (2:30 pm, ESPN)
The midday slate is the weakest part of this slate but we need to figure out the middle of the Big 12 and this game goes pretty far to telling us if Iowa State is really the 3rd best team in the conference of if we have like 5, fifth place teams in the conference.
Minnesota at Purdue (2:30 pm, ESPN2)
The Big Ten West is probably bad except for Iowa and Wisconsin but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some close, entertaining, bad games between the 3-7 teams. Watch Rondale Moore, follow the drama that could be the P.J. Fleck wardrobe and job situations.
Wake Forest at Boston College (2:30 pm, ACC Network)
Watch this one because Wake is good, Boston College is bad, and we should all enjoy a good Wake team. Plus, I want to see if BC can play a worse game than that loss to Kansas.
Georgia Tech at Temple (2:30 pm, CBSSN)
Temple beat Maryland, and Georgia Tech is a fascinating study in switching offensive philosophies and now they get a stiff G5 test on the road in Philly.
Virginia at Notre Dame (2:30 pm, NBC)
Notre Dame hosts Virginia who slept walk through a half in their look-head game last weekend against ODU. If ND is a good as we thought this preseason, they find a way to destroy this UVA team, but that will require the offense to be… something, anything they haven’t been so far this season.

Evening Slate (4:00 pm to 7:00 pm)

I want to preface these previews by saying that I have little interest in the “Marquee” games in the evening but find this evening slate to be absolutely fascinating for a number of G5 conference races.

Cincinnati at Marshall (4:00 pm, Find it Online)
I don’t know what either of these teams is. Cincinnati took it to what we now know is a poor UCLA team and then got run off the field by Ohio State. Marshall lost a closer than it was game to Boise and as close as it looked game against Ohio two weeks ago. A close game probably means both are middle of the road teams in their respective conferences, but a big win could show us a team more like we expected coming into the year.
Louisiana at Georgia Southern (5:00 pm, ESPN+)
Louisiana gets a stiff road test as favorites in their conference opener, in a look ahead spot with a marquee matchup with App State at home next week. Southern looks to be better than a couple recent poor performances but what I’m interested is do they have the horses to stay with ULL.
Arkansas State at Troy (5:00 pm, ESPN+)
Another good Sun Belt matchup, this one doesn’t have as much buzz as it has had in recent seasons, but I have it inside a 4 point spread and it should be a load of fun if Arkansas State can take advantage of a poor Troy defense.
Mississippi State at Auburn (6:00 pm, ESPN)
If anyone is going to throw a wrench in the SEC West race it’s Auburn but they have to avoid their concentration slip ups and a home game against Miss State off a emotional win over A&M means Auburn is in prime shape for a letdown-look ahead sandwich a top 10 matchup on the horizon against Florida.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (6:00 pm, ESPN+)
We’ve seen Kansas State beat Mississippi State and Oklahoma State played Texas close and eventually put a good Tulsa team away. And I still don’t feel like we really know what either of these two teams is. Much like Iowa State-Baylor this’ll help us figure out 3-7 in the Big 12.

Late Night Slate (9:00pm to 9:30 pm)

Washington State at Utah (9:00 pm, FS1)
A matchup of two teams that got #Pac12AfterDark’d in very different ways last week. Utah got third string QB’d on a Friday, on the road, and Wazzu lost that late-night thriller in much more traditional #Pac12AfterDark fashion blowing a 32-point lead in a back and forth thriller.
UCLA at Arizona (9:30pm, ESPN)
UCLA is coming of a high unlike most teams have every felt and are almost certainly going to come back to earth. I don’t know what this game is going to be but there is a chance both QBs just throw haymakers back and forth, but oddly enough the Wildcat defense may be the key to the game.
Hawaii at Nevada (9:30pm, ESPN2)
A battle of two of my favorite G5 teams in the early seasons, and a good MWC matchup, and a late-night Hawaii game make this one just a fun one to watch.
So, not as flashy a week with a thin early and midday slate but an underrated post 5:00 pm slate to finish out the day.