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Sunday, October 6, 2019

2019 College Football: Week 6 - Best Bets Review


Well it was a bit of a rough week for my system overall ATS and even best bets wasn’t immune. We went 2 for 5 this week with only UAB (-9.5) and Liberty (-5) hitting. This brings our season total to $10,255.91 with an ROI of 9.84%. Let’s dig a little deeper into our five games from the week.

EMU -6 on the road at CMU was a blood bath on all fronts. Points per play (.609 to .242), yards per play (8.507 to 4.318) and a final score of 42-16. EMU just played incredibly poorly and got whooped.
Kansas State (-1) was home against Baylor and I’ll admit this one might just be that my system hasn’t caught up to Baylor. They gave Kansas State all it could handle dominating them 31-21 with a .564 to .162 points per play advantage and 7.745 to 4.608 yards per play advantage. The pythag win% was nicer to Kansas State putting them with about a 22% chance of winning versus a 5% based on points but even that bump doesn’t really give us much of a moral victory.
SMU (-13) won a squeaker in overtime over Tulsa this game was pretty even with a slight lean in the stats to Tulsa (4.87 to SMU’s 4.73 in PPP, and 6.579 to SMU’s 4.835) in yards per play. In fact this one should have gone against us even more considering SMU had all of the turnover luck getting 3 INTs from Tulsa.
UAB (-9.5) was our first hit of the day and they deserved the win with a .3 points per play advantage, and 2.56 yards per play advantage they were the more efficient team and took care of business.
Liberty (-5) this game was as close as the score suggests with us getting a little lucky as New Mexico put up 1.15 more yards per play in the game but lost the turnover battle allowing a significantly less efficient Liberty get the road win.

So to recap my best bets 14-11-1 (55.77%) on the year with a profit of $255.91 and an ROI of 9.84%.

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