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Wednesday, August 8, 2018

2018 College Football Previews: AAC


The AAC has built itself up to be somewhere between a P5 conference and a G5 Conference. They’ve had a string of multiple Boise State level teams a year. They have a legitimately good middle, and to keep them from really competing with the P5 across the board, an abysmal bottom that’s smaller than the other G5 conferences. The balance of the conference has been off and again looks to be UCF/USF from the East and Memphis/SMU/Houston/Navy in the West.

The average power rating for the AAC squads is -2.39.
The average power rating for the AAC East squads is -5.28.
The average power rating for the AAC West squads is .49.


Team
Adj.
2017
W/L
%
Yards
Ret.
%
Touches
Ret.
%
Line
Starts
Ret.
%
Tackles
Ret.
%
Passes
Def.
Ret.
247
Sports
Score
Total
Points
East Division
UCF
14.76
79.86%
85.58%
47.59%
61.79%
62.00%
169
18.33
USF
6.49
23.05%
20.67%
47.47%
55.75%
59.62%
159.85
0.54
Temple
-1.55
61.39%
66.49%
32.26%
68.32%
72.34%
142.46
-2.99
Cincinnati
-7.89
78.19%
75.46%
27.50%
58.38%
48.57%
164.82
-9.95
Connecticut
-9.63
57.17%
63.93%
51.97%
35.10%
35.29%
122.08
-18.21
East Carolina
-9.66
30.15%
32.75%
37.74%
50.54%
51.61%
142.02
-19.42
West Division
Memphis
11.1
41.40%
43.20%
68.32%
68.54%
67.65%
160.1
9.9
SMU
2.91
76.15%
77.34%
52.46%
68.96%
82.93%
144.65
5.71
Houston
4.84
41.24%
39.43%
67.14%
51.47%
51.11%
166.15
0.25
Navy
5.42
71.03%
69.84%
42.57%
44.25%
31.43%
129.06
0.27
Tulane
-4.07
72.19%
65.82%
68.09%
50.04%
53.49%
132.28
-6.24
Tulsa
-9.3
74.87%
71.24%
64.74%
66.81%
86.84%
126.4
-6.95

As said above the imbalance is there again only three teams from the East look to be truly better than any team from the west, although every team, except SMU and Tulane, has at least one production category with less than 50% returning. To wit, on my previous point rating teams compared to Boise, UCF/USF/Memphis/Houston all recruit on par with the Broncos. SMU has Sonny Dykes taking over for Chad Morris who left for Arkansas. Dykes runs an offense that’s similar to Morris which should help the transition and help them take advantage of what they have coming back. UCF is in a similar situation, with Frost leaving for Nebraska, Josh Heupel is taking over. Heupel was on last year’s staff and has all the tools in the world to work with on offense but will need to replace key players on defense. USF has to replace almost all of its offense as do, to a lesser extent, Houston and Memphis. So, there are holes to fill on every squad and the rash of good hires have started to be replaced as they get poached away. If the conference can sustain through this, they may just be able to get to a level that would make them a real contender to make it the P6.

Top Returning Offensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Quarterbacks (Minimum 120 Attempts)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
AY/A
AY/R
Comp%
Sack%
McKenzie Milton
3
UCF
71
185
11
8.56
67.09%
2.70%
D'Eriq King
3
HOU
71
190
9.39
8.96
64.75%
6.10%
Jonathan Banks
4
TULA
75
220
8.24
6.7
56.62%
8.40%
Ben Hicks
3
SMU
73
203
7.77
6.1
58.47%
4.30%
Frank Nutile
4
TEM
76
225
7.62
5.53
61.31%
3.40%
Luke Skipper
2
TULS
74
208
8.02
6.8
55.91%
11.80%
Gardner Minshew
4
ECU
74
216
7.02
1.8
57.24%
2.60%
Hayden Moore
4
CIN
75
215
6
6.66
56.37%
3.40%
Chad President
3
TULS
74
226
5.66
10.41
52.87%
4.30%
Logan Marchi
3
TEM
72
205
6.01
4.27
55.51%
4.30%
David Pindell
4
CONN
72
192
4.68
6.05
52.83%
4.80%

Running Backs (Minimum 12 Touches)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tou.
AY/R
AY/T
RBP>12
Malcolm Perry
3
Navy
69
185
150
10.19
14.23
19.6
Darrell Henderson
3
MEM
69
200
154
10.15
7.35
16.98
Xavier Jones
3
SMU
70
203
196
6.82
4.42
14.22
Patrick Taylor Jr
3
MEM
75
223
176
7.04
6.2
14.03
Adrian Killins Jr
3
UCF
68
158
149
7.9
5.88
12.85
David Hood
4
TEM
69
190
157
5.53
6.6
10.62
Duke Catalon
4
HOU
72
215
164
5.26
4.58
9.75
Braeden West
4
SMU
70
170
91
8.28
7.71
8.65
Ryquell Armstead
4
TEM
71
205
170
4.46
3.95
8.6
Shamari Brooks
2
TULS
69
185
120
7.32
2
8.39
Kevin Mensah
2
CONN
69
200
140
5.04
5.42
8.39
Gerrid Doaks
2
CIN
72
222
101
6.32
7.35
7.75
Ke'Mon Freeman
3
SMU
71
207
140
5.69
1.75
7.69
Hussein Howe
3
ECU
69
183
125
4.99
5.48
7.46

Wide Receivers (Minimum 18 Targets)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tar.
AY/T
Cat%
WRP>18
Dredrick Snelson
3
UCF
72
206
62
13.7
74.19%
13.47
James Proche
3
SMU
71
185
61
15.28
65.57%
13.14
Trevon Brown
4
ECU
74
211
105
11.47
57.14%
12.43
Tyre McCants
3
USF
71
225
56
14.66
64.29%
11.73
Terren Encalade
4
TULA
72
190
64
12.61
60.94%
10.39
Kahlil Lewis
4
CIN
72
195
105
7.88
59.05%
8.82
Darnell Mooney
3
TULA
72
175
58
11.66
58.62%
8.69
Justin Hobbs
4
TULS
76
218
104
8.54
52.88%
8.5
Damonte Coxie
2
MEM
75
175
29
13.13
72.41%
8.42
Darnell Salomon
2
USF
75
215
54
11.27
59.26%
8.14
Isaiah Wright
3
TEM
74
212
82
9.09
56.10%
8.11
Aaron McLean
4
CONN
77
210
47
10.86
65.96%
8.06
Otis Anderson
2
UCF
71
164
40
10.22
75.00%
7.91

Tight Ends (Minimum 12 Targets)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tar.
AY/T
Cat%
TEP>12
Sean Dykes
3
MEM
74
210
25
16.16
60.00%
20.81
Joey Magnifico
3
MEM
76
235
30
11.26
70.00%
17.41

Offense has been the general calling card of the conference from a national level. QB is strong deep and ready to hit their primes. Lead by McKenzie Milton at UCF. 2018 will be interesting for Milton who loses his HC, and offensive guru, Scott Frost to Nebraska. As a sophomore last season Milton was exceptionally productive with 11.00 AY/A and 85.6 AY/R while completing 67% of his passes and only taking a sack on 2.7% of his drop backs. Milton will need to replace his top target Tre’Quan Smith, but he does gets RB Adrian Killins Jr and WR Dedrick Snelson. Snelson wasn’t as explosive as Smith, nearly no one in the country was, but he did put up a 13.7 AY/T and a 74.19% catch rate. Killins for his part is undersized but put up an impressive 7.9 AY/R, if he can be more productive in the pass game (AY/T of just 5.88) in 2018 the offense should evolve but still be potent. Next up is Houston’s De’Riq King. King only had 139 pass attempts and 63 rushes (202 touches) but he was extremely efficient with them. If King is to improve and lead the Houston offense he’s going to have to do it with only Duke Catalon as a significant part of last year’s offense. Catalon was disappointing last season after breaking out as a sophomore. Catalon had 164 touches but was a fairly pedestrian 5.26 AY/R and 4.58 AY/T. If Catalon can regain the explosiveness from earlier in his career, then it’ll just be a matter of replacing the receiving production. Let’s skip the Banks, the senior from Tulane for a moment, and talk about the third junior at the top of the returning producers in the AAC at QB. That junior is Ben Hicks of SMU. Hicks had a very normal, for an air raid offense, 472 attempts in 2017. Sonny Dykes also runs the air raid, so Hicks shouldn’t see too much of a dip, for his part Hicks should be able to improve on his 7.77 AY/A and his completion percentage of 58.47%. The biggest piece to help him there should be James Proche (15.28 AY/T and 65.57% catch rate). Proche only had 61 targets last season because of the 284 targets that went to Quinn and Sutton, if he can keep 80% of his efficiency with double the targets he’ll be a more than capable replacement. At RB, junior Xavier Jones had just shy of 200 touches in 2018 and was efficient on the ground (6.82 AY/R), but a non-factor in the passing game (4.42 AY/T). He’s joined by Braeden West who was more efficient in both phases, 8.28 AY/R and 7.71 AY/T, but was only given 91 touches. West is getting looks at the slot position vacated by Trey Quinn. Now, back to Banks and Tulane. Banks had 219 pass attempts, which he used to produce 8.24 AY/A, he also took 128 carries for 6.7 AY/R. He and Frank Nutile, who’ll we’ll get to in a minute are the only seniors in the players who are in the top tier returning. Banks is joined in Tulane by two efficient, if not highly targeted, receivers: senior Terren Encalade and junior Darnell Mooney. Encalade, the larger of the two, had 64 targets which he took for 12.61 AY/T and caught 60.94%. Mooney caught 58.62% of his 58 targets and took them for 11.66 AY/T. The Tulane offense will be good as long as they can find a manageable rushing attack. The last QB we’re going to specifically get into is Temple’s Frank Nutile. Nutile had 225 pass attempts in 2017 for 7.62 AY/T and was reasonably useful on the ground if not a rushing threat at 5.53 AY/R. Joining him in the Temple backfield are a pair of perfectly fine senior backs, David Hood (5.53 AY/R and 6.6 AY/T) and Ryquell Armstead (4.46 AY/R and 3.95 AY/T).  The last of Nutile’s good, but underwhelming, supporting cast with receiver Isaiah Wright. Wright a junior had 82 targets but just 9.09 AY/T. He’ll need to improve in his junior season if the Temple offense wants to keep up with the top of the conference. Navy has the top returning RB producer returning in the conference. Malcolm Perry had 150 touches last season that he took for 10.19 AY/R, of which 24 were targets that he took for an impressive 14.23 AY/T. He’s joined at the top of the conference by junior Memphis RBs Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. Henderson had 154 touches last season which he took for 10.15 AY/R and 7.35 AY/T, where the taller heavier Taylor had 7.04 AY/R and 6.2 AY/T on 176 touches. As we finalize the WRs, let’s start with Tyre McCants of USF who took advantage of his 56 targets at an unreal clip of 14.66 AY/T. McCants will be the focal point of the Bulls offense. Then there’s ECU’s Trevon Brown who had 105 targets as a junior and took them for 11.47 AY/T on a 57.14% catch rate. He’s a good deep threat and if he can get better QB play will be a standout in the conference in 2018. Lastly, let’s touch on the pair of junior Memphis TEs, Sean Dykes and Joey Magnifico, who combined for 55 targets, 628 yards, and 6 TDs.

Top Returning Defensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Interior Defensive Linemen (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Pts
Ed Oliver
3
HOU
75
290
60
16.5
5.5
3
228.63
Joey Connors
4
UCF
73
313
10.5
3.5
2
4
98.13
Dan Archibong
2
TEM
78
285
13.5
2.5
2
3
77.88
Demerick Gary
3
SMU
75
275
12.5
5.5
0
2
76.63
Delontae Scott
3
SMU
77
264
16.5
6
2.5
0
71.5
Josh Webb
4
Navy
77
250
11
4
4
0
65.75
Joseph Dorceus
2
MEM
72
265
13.5
5
1
1
64.13
Jerard Carter
4
HOU
74
285
20.5
5.5
1.5
0
60.75
Jonathan Wilson
3
MEM
75
280
16.5
5
2
0
59.63
O'Bryan Goodson
2
MEM
73
315
23.5
4
1
1
58.63

Edge Rushers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Quincy Roche
2
TEM
76
230
28.5
11.5
7
0
198.31
Kevin Mouhon
4
CIN
73
244
43.5
7
2
2
122.47

Off-Ball Linebackers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Kyran Mitchell
4
SMU
72
225
64
15.5
4.5
4
132.09
Greg Reaves
3
USF
74
236
41.5
14
4
3
109.11
Perry Young
3
CIN
70
215
78.5
9
0
3
108.16
Sam Franklin
3
TEM
75
210
51
9.5
4
6
105.76
Pat Jasinki
4
UCF
73
233
76
8.5
1
3
105.55
Shaun Bradley
3
TEM
73
225
68
10
1
2
104.61
Curtis Akins
4
MEM
74
230
74
4.5
0.5
2
91.47
Diamon Cannon
3
TULS
74
232
44.5
4.5
0
3
83.65
Chapelle Russell
3
TEM
73
225
57
3.5
0.5
1
73.89
Tim Hart
2
MEM
73
235
39
3
1
2
69.41
Chris Britton
4
CONN
73
225
39
6.5
1
2
61.35
Nico Sawtelle
3
USF
74
245
44
4.5
1.5
3
58.96
Bryce Huff
3
MEM
75
245
26.5
5
2
1
57.14
Leroy Godfrey
3
HOU
74
235
26.5
8.5
2
0
56.85
Emeke Egbule
4
HOU
75
245
49
6.5
2
0
56.16
Cooper Edmiston
3
TULS
75
239
80.5
2
0
1
49.69

Cornerbacks (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Terrell Carter
2
MEM
71
180
61.5
1
0
16
106.5
Jordan Wyatt
4
SMU
72
195
44.5
4.5
1
12
95.75
Donnie Lewis Jr
4
TULA
73
190
32.5
3
0
14
86.5
Mazzi Wilkins
4
USF
72
176
27
0.5
0.5
12
73.13
Tito Windham
4
MEM
69
180
32.5
3
1
12
62.75
Rodney Clemons
3
SMU
72
191
61.5
4
1
11
62.25
Ronnie Hoggins
4
USF
68
175
49
0
0
10
54
Isaiah Johnson
4
HOU
75
195
39.5
0
0
9
50.5
Brandon Moore
2
UCF
72
186
28
2.5
0
9
48.5
Alexander Myres
4
HOU
70
192
34.5
2.5
0
7
41.5
Reggie Robinson II
3
TULS
73
190
35
2.5
0
9
39
Jeremy Winchester
4
HOU
71
203
37
1
1
6
35.75
Derrek Thomas
4
TEM
75
193
5.5
0
0
6
30.5

Free Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Mikial Onu
3
SMU
71
200
95
1
0
9
126.94
Devon Sutton
3
ECU
71
198
49.5
5.5
1
3
115.31
Sean Williams
4
Navy
73
190
66
2.5
0
5
107.41
Tyrell Gilbert
4
CIN
73
205
36.5
3
1
2
95.97
Roderic Teamer Jr
4
TULA
72
210
41
3
0
2
84.25
Khalid McGee
4
USF
70
198
33.5
3.5
0
0
75.75
Richie Grant
2
UCF
72
186
28.5
1
0
2
55.84
Nevelle Clarke
3
UCF
73
185
23
2
0
4
53.56
Benny Walls
3
TEM
73
208
17
0
0
1
53.38

Strong Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Austin Hall
3
MEM
74
205
75
8
1
8
144.35
Delvon Randall
4
TEM
73
210
71
6.5
1
4
133.84
Kyle Gibson
4
UCF
71
182
53
2
0
8
124.23
Garrett Davis
4
HOU
72
205
44.5
2
0
8
121.04
McKinley Whitfield
4
TULS
75
216
90
6
0
9
114.8
Tre Neal
4
UCF
73
215
54.5
2
0
6
100.91
Tyler Coyle
2
CONN
73
202
55.5
3
0
7
94.96
Marsh Terry
3
CONN
76
212
49.5
3
0
4
64.46
Jaymon Thomas
4
USF
75
195
37
1
0
4
50.93
Josh Perry
2
MEM
75
192
32.5
1
0
4
49.24
Chase Kuerschen
2
TULA
73
205
52
0.5
0
2
45.59
Christian Davis
3
SMU
72
184
15.5
2
0
3
42.91

Let’s just start with the obvious, even in a “down” sophomore season Ed Oliver was amazing. Oliver had 60 tackles in 2017 with 16.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, and 3 passes defensed. Only 3 conference fellows had 1/3 of the TFls and only undersized Navy lineman, Josh Webb, had half the sacks. Houston adds low level returning producers Jerard Carter (INT), Leroy Godfrey (OBLB), and Emeke Egbule (OBLB) to Oliver in the front seven who combined for 96 tackles, 20.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. In the defensive backfield three more low-level returning producers at CBs, Isaiah Johnson (9 PDs), Alexander Myres (7 PDs), and Jeremy Winchester (6 PDs), return alongside safety Garrett Davis and his 44.5 tackles and 8 PDs. The leading edge player returning to the AAC is Temple sophomore Quincy Roche who, as a freshman, had 11.5 TFLs and 7 sacks. Roche is joined by fellow sophomore Dan Archibong (INT) who had 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 3 PDs. The pair of sophomores is joined by a trio of third year Temple tacklers in the form of Sam Franklin, Shawn Bradley, and Chapelle Russell. Franklin, Bradley, and Russell combined for 176 tackles, 23 TFLs, and 9 PDs last season. Lastly, in the defensive backfield, low-level returning corner Derrek Thomas had 6 PDs and standout safety Delvon Randall had 71 tackles, 6.5 for loss, and 4 PDs. Roche and Randall are going to need help, but at least the returning producers are young. The other returning edge is Kevin Mouhon the senior from Cincinnati. Mouhon had 43.5 tackles last season, 7 TFLs, and 2 PDs. Mouhon is joined in the front seven by junior Perry Young who racked up 78.5 Tackles and 9 TFLs. There is only one other defensive player who returns with above average production from last year, safety Tyrell Gilbert. Gilbert wasn’t particularly productive, but he did end up with 36.5 tackles, 3 TFLs, a sack and a couple PDs. SMU has some might on defense returning this year in a change of pace from previous seasons. The headliner here being Kyran Mitchell. Mitchell had 64 tackles last season but was truly disruptive with 15.5 TFLs and 4.5 sacks, to go with his 4 PDs. SMU also brings back three stand out DBs. Corners Jordan Wyatt and Rodney Clemons had 12 and 11 PDs respectively and combined for 8.5 TFls. At Safety, Mikial Onu had 95 tackles and 9 passes defensed in a breakout sophomore campaign. To round out their returners safety Christian Davis returns with a pair of TFLs and a trio of PDs, and interior linemen Demerick Gary and Delontae Scott combined for 11.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. Greg Reaves of USF wasn’t as proficiently productive as Mitchell, but he still managed 14 TFLs, 4 sacks, and 3 PDs. Reaves like Mitchell is joined by a pair of corners with double digit PDs: Mazzi Wilkins (12) and Ronnie Hoggins (10). A trio of low-level returners join them, OBLB Nico Sawtelle returns with 44 tackles and 4.5 TFLs, and safeties Khalid McGee (33.5 tackles and 3.5 TFLs) and Jaymon Thomas (37 tackles and 4 PDs). Memphis has a trio of DB top returners headlined by CB Terrell Carter. Carter, who had 61.5 tackles and 16 PDs as a freshman, is joined by fellow CB Tito Windham, who had 3 TFLs and 12 PDs, and safety Austin Hall, who racked up 75 tackles, 8 TFLs, and 8 PDs. Memphis also has a half dozen, or so, low-level returning producers who combined for 202 tackles, 27 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 11 PDs. The last trio of “stragglers” come from ECU (Sutton), Navy (Williams), and Tulsa (Whitfield). Sutton accounted for 5.5 TFLs and 3 PDs, Williams had 66 tackles and 5 PDs, and Whitfield accounted for an astounding 90 tackles, 6 TFLs, and 9 PDs. There’s talent at each level of the defense, but it seems that they are very evenly dispersed and not clumped up very much outside of Memphis.

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