Most Popular This Month

Monday, August 6, 2018

2018 College Football Previews: Mountain West


The Mountain West has been Boise State’s conference for a little more than a decade. Others have had their years, but on the whole, year in and year out Boise has been the cream of the crop. That said, Tedford had a surprise year one and SDSU is churning out record breaking backs each season at least make this conference note-worthy year in and year out.

The average power rating for the Mountain West squads is -5.97.

The average power rating for the MAC East squads is -3.02.

The average power rating for the MAC West squads is -8.92.


Team
Adj.
2017
W/L
%
Yards
Ret.
%
Touches
Ret.
%
Line
Starts
Ret.
%
Tackles
Ret.
%
Passes
Def.
Ret.
247
Sports
Score
Total
Points
Mountain Division
Boise State
13.59
59.14%
60.03%
44.55%
77.30%
84.91%
168.05
16.2
Wyoming
-1.44
62.72%
67.44%
76.32%
82.71%
67.50%
112.08
0.99
Utah State
-4.8
59.40%
56.47%
85.19%
83.37%
47.73%
119.61
-4.8
Colorado State
-1.46
22.78%
25.48%
24.03%
63.68%
48.78%
143.42
-7.73
Air Force
-5.66
72.95%
73.22%
13.00%
46.65%
53.85%
107.82
-9.73
New Mexico
-10.21
56.52%
54.97%
49.56%
59.62%
81.58%
113.32
-13.04
West Division
Fresno State
3.4
86.45%
86.05%
54.48%
80.40%
75.51%
136.03
8.82
San Diego State
7.35
49.82%
55.70%
73.08%
68.77%
62.50%
151.63
7.29
UNLV
-9.11
79.95%
79.65%
47.45%
66.99%
42.31%
121.35
-10.85
Nevada
-10.25
86.11%
87.73%
34.78%
66.67%
50.00%
122.5
-10.93
San Jose State
-17.55
92.14%
90.95%
17.37%
53.66%
31.91%
137.1
-23.16
Hawaii
-13.43
8.37%
14.37%
30.22%
61.15%
50.00%
120.99
-24.72

The Mountain West is haves and have nots this season. Boise, Fresno, and SDSU are well ahead of everybody else in the conference. Wyoming and USU are their own sort of middle tier between the top and the bottom. Fresno, Boise, and Wyoming are the only teams in the conference with all five categories over 50%. San Diego State and Boise are the best recruiters by far with Boise out-recruiting a handful of Power 5 teams in my adjusted rating.

Top Returning Offensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Quarterbacks (Minimum 120 Pass Attempts)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
AY/A
AY/R
Comp%
Sack%
Brett Rypien
4
BSU
74
208
8.38
6.65
62.64%
5.40%
Marcus McMaryion
4
FRES
74
195
7.9
8.89
62.11%
2.20%
Christian Chapman
4
SDSU
72
200
8
4.24
60.08%
10.70%
Ty Gangi
4
NEV
74
210
7.31
6.51
60.96%
1.80%
Armani Rogers
2
UNLV
77
225
7.21
8.57
52.38%
10.40%
Jordan Love
2
USU
75
215
6.45
6.38
54.89%
2.90%
Montel Aaron
2
SJSU
77
210
5.49
4.15
56.00%
8.90%
Josh Love
3
SJSU
74
205
4.17
4.63
54.12%
6.10%

Running Backs (Minimum 12 Touches)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tou.
AY/R
AY/T
RBP>12
Lexington Thomas
4
UNLV
69
170
219
7.81
13
23.28
Alexander Mattison
3
BSU
71
214
241
6.14
8.21
18.71
Kelton Moore
3
NEV
70
220
183
5.66
6.94
12.78
Izzy Matthews
4
CoSt
72
220
144
5.76
11.38
12.04
Tyler Nevens
2
SJSU
72
218
167
4.22
9.17
10.64
Jordan Mims
2
FRES
71
190
165
4.88
7.15
10.49
Juwan Washington
3
SDSU
67
190
130
6.99
6.5
10.42
Josh Hokit
3
FRES
73
220
141
5.56
6.29
9.45
Kellen Overstreet
3
WYO
71
216
112
4.92
13
9.07
Trey Woods
2
WYO
75
210
146
3.73
9.25
8.71
Tyrone Owens
4
UNM
69
187
150
5.99
1.67
8.59
Ronnie Rivers
2
FRES
68
175
121
5.66
5.3
7.87

Wide Receivers (Minimum 18 targets)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tar.
AY/T
Cat%
WRP>18
John Ursua
3
HAW
70
165
63
12.12
74.60%
12.1
KeeSean Johnson
4
FRES
74
202
135
8.65
57.04%
11.32
Brendan O'Leary-Orange
3
NEV
76
210
60
11.59
65.00%
9.78
McLane Mannix
2
NEV
70
175
97
9.21
58.76%
9.69
Dylan Collie
4
HAW
70
175
85
8.39
65.88%
9.01
Brandon Presley
3
UNLV
72
180
53
11.51
64.15%
8.9
Warren Jackson
2
CoSt
77
205
20
15.18
75.00%
8.72
Austin Conway
3
WYO
70
178
85
7.14
71.76%
8.36
Jay Griffin IV
2
UNM
70
162
42
11.2
69.05%
8.18
Olabisi Johnson
4
CoSt
72
195
68
9.32
60.29%
7.89
Ron'quavion Tarver
4
USU
75
215
83
8.48
57.83%
7.87

Tight Ends (Minimum 12 Targets)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tar.
AY/T
Cat%
TEP>12
Dax Raymond
3
USU
77
245
60
7.87
68.33%
24.33
Jared Rice
3
FRES
77
228
31
13.76
70.97%
21.98
Josh Oliver
4
SJSU
77
253
56
5.63
62.50%
16.24
Kahale Warring
3
SDSU
78
250
27
11.33
66.67%
15.76

Brett Rypien is the best known of the MWC quarterbacks and for good reason. At 8.38 AY/A, 62.64% completion percentage, only his sack rate (5.40%) is troubling from a stats standpoint. Rypien has some bad habits and is too mistake prone at times but he’s the cream of the crop heading into 2018. After Rypien, three more senior QBs had a completion percentage above 60% and what an interesting group that is. Fresno State’s Marcus McMaryion was not on the radar going into last season as it looked like sophomore to be Chason Virgil was going to inherit the starting job. McMaryion took advantage of a new staff and the starting role to throw for 2700 yards and just shy 8 AY/A. He was also the most efficient rusher at QB in the conference and despite showing running ability only got sacked on just over 2% of his drop backs. The other two 60% passers in the conference were SDSU’s Christian Chapman and Nevada’s Ty Gangi. Chapman was the only QB beside Rypien of this group to get to 8 AY/A, but wasn’t much of a threat on the ground, and took far too many sacks (10.7%). Gangi was much more efficient on the ground than Chapman (6.51 AY/R) and was sacked on just 1.8% of his drop backs. The last QB I want to point out is UNLV sophomore Armani Rogers. Rogers didn’t start right away last year but ended with the most pass attempts for the Running Rebels. Rogers was a high three-star recruit and has a chance to change the fortunes of UNLV and if he can get more efficient in the passing game (52.4% comp rate and 10.4% sack rate) he’s talented enough to help UNLV make a jump in his sophomore season. Joining Rogers in the desert is RB Lexington Thomas. Thomas is a smaller back (5’9” 170 lbs.) but he was dynamite in the passing opportunities he got taking 11 targets for 140+ yards, but he was surprisingly stout in the run game with 211 rushes for 1336 yards and 17 TDs. The combo of Thomas and an improved Rogers would make UNLV a dangerous offense to deal with. The rich get richer with Boise State’s Alexander Mattison and Nevada’s Kelton Moore. Mattison joins Rypien in Boise’s backfield and brings with 241 touches that he turned into 6.14 AY/R and 8.21 AY/T. Moore, for his part, joins the aforementioned Gangi and brings a solid, if slightly less impressive 5.66 AY/R and 6.94 AY/T. At SDSU, Juwan Washington (6.99 AY/R and 6.5 AY/T) looks to continue a string of incredibly productive SDSU running backs following in the footsteps of Rashaad Penny and Donnel Pumphrey. Fresno, and McMaryion, have a trio of young backs in, Jordan Mims (165 touches, 7.15 AY/T), Josh Hokit (141 touches, 5.56 AY/R and 6.29 AY/T), and Ronnie Rivers (121 touches, 5.66 AY/R and 5.3 AY/T). They should be able to work and grow that rotation but will need someone to step up and become much more productive in the run game. As we head to the receivers it’s interesting to note that the top returning QB producers don’t have much returning on the receiving end. Fresno looks to be in the best shape with senior KeeSean Johnson (135 targets, 8.65 AY/T), but even he is much more of a possession receiver than an explosive playmaker. The explosive weapon might actually be TE Jared Rice. Rice only had 31 targets last season, but he managed to haul in 71% of his targets, score 2 TD, and ruck up 388 yards. Nevada returns two young receivers for Gangi in the form of Brendan O’Leary-Orange (60 targets, 11.59 AY/T) and McLane Mannix (97 targets, 9.21). If they can grow into even more production in their junior and freshman year respectively the Nevada offense as a whole will be as well rounded as any in the conference. Hawaii has two of the top returning producers at WR but they lost QB Dru Brown who transferred to Oklahoma State. Junior John Ursua (12.12 AY/T and 74.6% catch rate) and Dylan Collie (8.39 AY/T and 65.9% catch rate) will be great targets for whomever takes over, but productivity and efficiency is sure to take a bit of a hit. There’s some well above talent returning in the MWC, but it’s not overwhelming. Boise is sure to be solid again, Fresno State and Nevada have the pieces to mature into menacing attacks, and UNLV will go as Rogers goes.

Top Returning Defensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Interior Defensive Linemen (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Youhanna Ghaifan
3
WYO
76
290
54
16
7
0
191.75
Korey Rush
4
NEV
72
265
29.5
9
2.5
1
111.75
Noble Hall
4
SDSU
75
265
31.5
8.5
3.5
0
103
Emeka Ndoh
4
FRES
72
252
8
5
4
1
86
Chibu Onyeukwu
4
SDSU
76
255
14
5
4.5
0
78.38
Richard King
3
CoSt
76
275
19.5
5
2.5
1
77.25
Roger Mann
4
UNLV
75
265
14
4.5
1
2
73.25
Nick Dehdashtian
3
UNLV
73
290
14
6.5
2
0
71
Viane Moala
3
HAW
79
270
28.5
5.5
0
1
64.13
David Moa
4
BSU
75
271
16.5
3.5
2
1
60.63
Zeno Choi
4
HAW
75
260
15.51
2.5
0.5
2
57.25

Edge Rushers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Carl Granderson
4
WYO
77
255
57
16
8.5
2
262
Malik Reed
4
NEV
73
250
38
10
8
1
221.13
Curtis Weaver
2
BSU
75
252
26.5
13
11
3
216.53
Jabril Frazier
4
BSU
76
243
29
6.5
6
2
147.84
Durrant Miles
4
BSU
77
253
23.5
6
2
4
145.53
Kevin Prosser
4
WYO
74
223
28
5
2.5
3
113.63

Off-Ball Linebackers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Logan Wilson
3
WYO
74
229
100
8
1
2
133.96
Josh Watson
4
CoSt
74
240
86.5
5
2
9
124.44
Jahlani Tavai
4
HAW
76
235
96
11
9.5
2
117.24
Jeffrey Allison
3
FRES
72
250
102.5
5.5
2
3
115.45
George Helmuth
4
FRES
73
220
73.5
8
4
1
94.51
Solomon Matautia
3
HAW
73
230
66.5
3.5
1
4
94.11
Chase Christiansen
4
USU
73
230
52
4
1
1
87.84
Jamal Scott
4
SJSU
74
237
62
10
2
0
79.63
Suli Tamaivena
4
USU
72
230
77
6.5
3
2
79.53
Alex Hart
4
UNM
75
230
44
5.5
1
3
76.58
Gabe McCoy
3
UNLV
74
215
69
3
0
1
75.93
Cassh Maluia
3
WYO
72
230
53.5
3.5
1
4
75.59
James Bailey
4
FRES
73
225
55
4.5
0
2
69.89
Max McDonald
3
CoSt
73
220
42
5
1.5
2
68.44
Desmond Williams
2
BSU
71
201
23.5
3
2
2
63.84
Javin White
3
UNLV
74
195
33.5
3
0
3
58.29
Ronley Lakalaka
4
SDSU
72
225
63
5.5
3
0
58
Kyahva Tezino
3
SDSU
72
230
47
6
2
1
57.98
Tyson Maeva
3
BSU
72
214
63.5
2.5
1
3
56.49

Cornerbacks (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Ron Smith
3
SDSU
72
170
54
2
0
18
88
Jaron Bryant
3
FRES
73
183
59
2.5
0
11
84
Tyler Horton
4
BSU
71
188
35
3
0
13
73.5
Juju Hughes
3
FRES
71
180
63
7
1
8
60.75
Anthony Hawkins
3
CoSt
70
185
30
0.5
0
8
58
Avery Williams
2
BSU
69
194
41
0
0
10
54
Tre Webb
2
SJSU
72
189
25
2
1
4
50.75
Anthoula Kelly
4
FRES
70
185
40
3
0
9
50
Daniel Lewis Jr
4
HAW
71
190
66
2.5
0
8
45
Tyler Hall
3
WYO
70
184
25
0.5
0
6
41.5
D'Angelo Ross
4
UNM
68
175
25
1
0
11
41.5
Jalin Burrell
4
UNM
72
195
47
0.5
0
10
36.5
Elijah Moody
4
NEV
71
175
37
1
0
6
33.5
DeAndre Pierce
3
BSU
71
174
68
4
0
3
32
Ja'Marcus Ingram
2
USU
73
185
34
0
0
6
30.5

Free Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Andrew Wingard
4
WYO
72
209
92
8
1
8
209.5
Asauni Rufus
4
NEV
71
190
58
5.5
1.5
3
156.47
Jericho Flowers
3
UNLV
70
175
51.5
5
0
5
145.47
Marcus Epps
4
WYO
72
206
55
5
1
8
137.13
Kekaula Kaniho
2
BSU
70
175
27.5
6.5
1
5
123.25
Nephi Sewell
2
NEV
71
205
45
4.5
0
4
112.16
Dalton Baker
4
UNLV
71
185
84
1
0
2
106.56
Jocquez Kalili
4
UNLV
71
185
19.5
2
0
0
90.84
Ahki Muhammad
4
NEV
69
175
44
1
0
2
84.06
Gaje Ferguson
4
USU
72
210
65
2
1
1
77

Strong Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Tariq Thompson
2
SDSU
72
190
54.5
3
0
9
148.71
Kekoa Nawahine
3
BSU
74
199
86.5
4.5
0
7
128.35
Dameon Baber
4
NEV
70
205
74
1.5
0
5
101.64
Mike Bell
3
FRES
75
205
64
3
0
4
69.9
Kyle Floyd
4
AFA
74
210
43
0
0
8
66.25
Parker Baldwin
4
SDSU
74
215
57
1.5
0
3
56.26
Rojesterman Farris II
3
HAW
73
180
35
0.5
0
5
52.34
Jamal Hicks
3
CoSt
73
185
28.5
0
0
2
49.69
Baron Gaikowski
2
USU
73
205
37.5
2.5
1
2
49.45
Bijon Parker
4
UNM
72
195
18
2
2
4
49.13
Ethan Aguayo
3
SJSU
74
220
63
3.5
0
1
43.49

On the other side of the ball the front seven is headlined by Wyoming. Youhanna Ghaifan (WYO) checks in at 290 pounds and returns for his junior season after having an impressive sophomore campaign that included 54 tackles, 16 TFLs, and 7 sacks. He’s by far the top returning interior player in the conference and one of just 3 of note. The other two players of note after Ghaifan are Nevada’s Korey Rush and SDSU’s Noble Hall. Rush had 9 TFLs and 2.5 sacks last season, while Hall had 8.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. Wyoming keeps the front seven game going with Carl Granderson (Edge), Kevin Prosser (Edge), Logan Wilson (OBLB), and Cassh Maluia (OBLB). Granderson returns 16 TFLs and 8.5 sacks and Logan Wilson had 10 tackles and 8 TFLs. All together the quartet on the outside and behind Ghaifan had 238.5 tackles, 32.5 TFLs, and 13 sacks. Wyoming is going to be stout on defense, especially when you include safeties, Andrew Wingard (92 tackles, 8 TFLs and 8PDs) and Marcus Epps (55 tackles, 5 TFLs, and 8 PDs), and cornerback Tyler Hall (6 PDs). The returning production for Wyoming is pretty evenly split between junior and seniors making them experienced and productive. As for Nevada, Rush is joined by edge rusher Malik Reed who adds 10 TFLs and 8 sacks to go along with rushed 9 and 2.5. Nevada also doesn’t have anything special returning production-wise at the second-level, but they have their own quartet of defensive backs.  Safties Asauni Rufus and Dameon Baber headline the quartet combining for 132 tackles, 7 TFLs, and 8 PDs. Add in sophomore Nephi Sewell who had 45 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, and 4 PDs, and corner Elijah Moody (who had 37 tackles and 6 PDs) and you should have a pretty solid defense that still has some holes to fill. Boise State is the fascinating team here, with a collection of young talent peppered with seniors. In the front seven David Moa is back at INT, but he had just 16.5 tackles but did have 2 sacks. On the edge sophomore Curtis Weaver had one hell of an introduction with 13 TFLs, 11 sacks, and 3 PDs. Joining him on the edge are seniors Jabril Frazier and Durrant Miles who combined for 12.5 TFLs, 8 sacks, and 6 PDs. Behind those four are a pair of young guys at OBLB. Sophomore Desmond Williams and junior Tyson Maeva combined for 87 tackles, 5.5 TFls, 3 sacks, and 5 PDs. Throwing lanes will be an issue against Boise State. Behind that collection of talent Tyler Horton comes back for his senior season after a 3 TFL and 13 PDs junior season across from him the Broncos will be looking for improvement from junior DeAndre Pierce who had 68 tackles (4 TFLs) and just 3 PDs. The safety position brings us the fineal two younger players: sophomore Kekaula Kanhio and junior Kekoa Nawahine. The pair combined for 114 tackles, 11 TFLs and 12 PDs. Boise may peak on defense in 2019, but 2018 is going to be fun energetic and will probably improve each week with added experience. Fresno from linebacker on back is the last “full” squad I’m going to hit. At linebacker, junior Jeffrey Allison had an incredibly productive season with 102.5 tackls, 5.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 3 PDs. He’s joined by senior George Helmuth and senior James Bailey who added 128.5 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, and 3 PDs. At corner juniors Jaron Bryant and Juju Hughes combined for 122 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, and 19 PDs in their sophomore season and should continue to grow. Lastly, add in junior Mike Bell and his 43 tackles and 8 PDs at safety and you have at worst a solid back seven or eight. Let’s clean up the one off’s… At linebacker Josh Watson, a senior, from Colorado State returns to build off his 86.5 tackle, 5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 9 PDs. The other LB of note is Jahlani Tavai of Hawaii. Another senior Tavai was not as active in the pass game as Watson, but had 96 tackles, 11 for loss and 9.5 sacks with a couple of passes defensed. OBLB may be the deepest position on defense in the conference. In the back four, Ron Smith, junior, of SDSU had 18 PDs and 54 tackles as a sophomore and is back again to lead the Aztecs DBs. At safety, UNLV brings back junior Jericho Flowers who racked up 5 TFLs and the same number of PDs. Lastly, there’s the other SDSU youngster, sophomore Tariq Thompson. Thomps had 5.45 tackles as a freshman with 3 TFLs and 9 PDs. So, hope on the backside of the Aztec defense. Boise and Wyoming should be the class of the conference on defense with SDSU and Fresno having promise. Nevada has some players, but the rest of the conference needs recruits and newbies to step up.

No comments:

Post a Comment