2018 College Football Season: Power 5 Preview

Alright, finally done with the P5 preview and just in time to give you a 10,000 foot view and faceplant right into a week 1 preview.

P.L.U.M.P. Lists - ACC - B1G - BXII - Pac-12 - SEC

Conf.	Ave. Rat.	Div.	Ave. Rat.
SEC	10.59	SEC West	13.08
B1G	9.57	B1G East	12.15
PAC	9.01	ACC Atlantic	10.48
ACC	7.35	Pac-12 North	9.96
BXII	4.82	SEC East	8.11
		Pac-12 South	8.06
		B1G West	6.99
		ACC Coastal	4.23

The conference ranks should be too much of a surprise, but the ratings for the Pac-12 and ACC will probably be the headliners. My system likes the Pac-12, I don’t know why, but I think the parity of the conference and the off-setting affect of those wins and losses is to blame. The ACC for it’s part has one great division and one poor one that’s pretty even, but doesn’t really impress much. As far as the divisions, the top and bottom are what you’d expect. On tp the SEC West and B1G East are in tiers of their own, and the ACC Atlantic and Pac-12 North both have top 5 teams in my system and another in the top 20 as well. The B1G West lags because of everyone but Wisconsin and the ACC Coastal has Miami but nothing else.

Team	Conf.	Div.	Adj. W/L	Adj. Rec.	Total Points
Clemson	ACC	Atl	21.08	1.73	28.63
Wisconsin	B1G	West	22.09	0.52	26.50
Michigan State	B1G	East	15.26	0.91	24.69
Stanford	PAC	North	20.50	1.18	24.06
Georgia	SEC	East	22.44	2.27	24.03
Notre Dame	Indep	-	19.71	1.60	23.43
Alabama	SEC	West	19.70	2.55	23.33
Auburn	SEC	West	19.92	1.80	23.00
USC	PAC	South	23.09	2.24	22.28
Ohio State	B1G	East	21.30	2.52	22.15
Washington	PAC	North	14.96	0.98	21.81
Michigan	B1G	East	13.67	1.64	21.01
Oklahoma	BXII	-	21.77	1.56	20.95
Miami (FL)	ACC	Coa	16.02	1.32	19.39
Mississippi State	SEC	West	10.21	0.98	18.82
Penn State	B1G	East	17.80	1.44	18.32
Northwestern	B1G	West	13.75	0.15	16.66
Boston College	ACC	Atl	12.39	-0.18	14.96
Texas A&M	SEC	West	6.73	1.50	13.59
South Carolina	SEC	East	9.98	1.07	13.06
TCU	BXII	-	15.05	0.76	11.63
Florida	SEC	East	3.95	1.46	11.09
NC State	ACC	Atl	13.54	0.41	10.94
Washington State	PAC	North	12.67	0.21	10.75
Florida State	ACC	Atl	7.07	2.17	10.06
Power 5 - Top 25 (Above)
Oklahoma State	BXII	-	11.50	0.42	9.60
Iowa	B1G	West	12.16	0.28	9.41
UCLA	PAC	South	8.79	1.48	9.16
Oregon	PAC	North	6.11	1.13	8.70
Wake Forest	ACC	Atl	8.15	-0.02	8.59
Arizona State	PAC	South	11.36	0.82	8.33
Texas	BXII	-	4.55	1.68	8.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	Coa	10.04	0.74	8.02
California	PAC	North	1.01	0.31	7.41
Missouri	SEC	East	4.82	0.46	7.14
Kentucky	SEC	East	6.68	0.62	7.11
LSU	SEC	West	10.51	2.09	6.95
Purdue	B1G	West	6.31	-0.19	6.76
Arizona	PAC	South	3.98	0.27	6.39
Utah	PAC	South	2.53	0.54	4.65
Iowa State	BXII	-	4.44	0.08	4.60
Georgia Tech	ACC	Coa	4.19	0.18	3.96
Kansas State	BXII	-	2.38	-0.09	3.79
Texas Tech	BXII	-	2.06	0.26	3.52
Arkansas	SEC	West	-0.57	0.78	3.30
Maryland	B1G	East	1.39	0.64	3.04
Mississippi	SEC	West	3.47	1.28	2.54
Duke	ACC	Coa	0.47	0.32	2.32
Louisville	ACC	Atl	7.85	0.60	0.99
West Virginia	BXII	-	2.71	0.37	0.92
Indiana	B1G	East	0.56	0.06	0.37
Minnesota	B1G	West	2.81	0.17	0.15
Nebraska	B1G	West	3.32	0.89	0.09
Syracuse	ACC	Atl	-0.01	0.03	-0.82
Virginia	ACC	Coa	1.98	0.06	-0.90
Pittsburgh	ACC	Coa	-0.74	0.46	-0.99
Vanderbilt	SEC	East	0.50	0.13	-1.93
North Carolina	ACC	Coa	-3.98	0.77	-2.19
Colorado	PAC	South	-0.20	0.15	-2.43
Tennessee	SEC	East	-0.68	1.52	-3.76
Rutgers	B1G	East	-2.81	0.07	-4.53
Kansas	BXII	-	-12.02	-0.32	-6.46
Baylor	BXII	-	-12.17	0.54	-8.43
Illinois	B1G	West	-6.92	0.09	-10.65
Oregon State	PAC	North	-9.39	0.13	-12.95

In the top 25 of the P5 overall, it’s interesting to note that 2-4 don’t recruit at an elite level, and right behind them are reloading blue bloods. It’s an even representation in the top 25: ACC – 4, B1G – 6, BXII – 2, IND - 1, PAC -4, SEC – 7. The SEC takes a step back in the preseason with no team in the top 5, but UGA, Auburn, and Bama all fit in the top 10, with a menagerie fitting into the bottom half of the top 25. The Big 12 takes a large hit, which could be made worse if Kyler Murray and the offense can’t pick up the slack left by departing Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Lastly, if the rankings hold out how weird would a Clemson/Wisconsin/Stanford/Georgia (left MSU out because not highest ranked in conference) playoff be.

Conference	HFA Average	Division	HFA Average
SEC	4.55	SEC West	4.78
B1G	4.06	B1G East	4.42
BXII	3.92	SEC East	4.31
PAC	3.50	B1G West	3.71
ACC	3.36	ACC Atlantic	3.56
		Pac-12 South	3.54
		Pac-12 North	3.45
		ACC Coastal	3.16

Lastly, it’s home field advantage. Where everything is very close, except for the coastal. These tend to be the biggest stadiums and the best attended. The coastal just happens to have a number of smaller stadiums especially in basketball country.