2018 College Football Previews: MAC

Everyone’s favorite Midwest based conference and it’s cycling back to it’s crazy self. Toledo, NIU, and WMU have been the class of the conference but as we’ll see below there’s a rising middle class.

The average power rating for the MAC squads is -6.01.

The average power rating for the MAC East squads is -7.01.

The average power rating for the MAC West squads is -5.02.

Note: Glosssary and P.L.U.M.P. Page

Team	Adj. 2017 W/L	% Yards Ret.	% Touches Ret.	% Line Starts Ret.	% Tackles Ret	% Passes Def. Ret.	247 Sports Score	Total Points
East Division
Ohio	-.68	81.45%	82.57%	65.67%	52.53%	50.68%	116.73	0.61
Buffalo	-6.81	89.52%	91.31%	56.25%	64.45%	78.13%	101.19	-2.89
Miami (OH)	-9.00	72.58%	75.26%	88.00%	74.87%	64.71%	125.57	-5.38
Akron	-3.89	41.22%	37.91%	43.31%	85.31%	89.74%	89.03	-6.39
Kent State	-13.08	92.49%	92.40%	43.64%	70.40%	60.00%	103.87	-13.31
Bowling Green	-14.06	56.84%	52.70%	31.78%	77.35%	96.15%	122.8	-14.67
West Division
Northern Illinois	-.40	62.55%	67.11%	100.00%	67.92%	66.67%	120.13	1.3
Toledo	6.68	50.76%	47.83%	40.00%	60.82%	28.57%	141.95	1.01
Western Michigan	-2.88	75.13%	73.32%	65.49%	53.29%	48.78%	147.24	-3.87
Eastern Michigan	-5.63	33.79%	42.24%	100.00%	68.27%	77.50%	107.95	-7.12
Central Michigan	-1.26	32.13%	36.80%	27.40%	62.60%	55.26%	116.72	-8.54
Ball State	-15.82	87.55%	85.33%	57.73%	71.37%	87.88%	118.22	-12.89

Toledo has had a really nice run in the west against NIU and WMU. Toledo has work to do to replace lost production and so does WMU, which makes NIU a slight favorite in the West. Buffalo is going to be a tough out in the East, but will have to go through Frank Solich, et al. at Ohio. In fact the craziness probably comes from the East where Ohio, Buffalo, and Miami (OH) who bring back at least 50% of the production from all five categories.

Top Returning Offensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Quarterbacks (Minimum 120 Pass Attempts)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	AY/A	AY/R	Comp%	Sack%
Tyree Jackson	3	BUFF	79	245	9.25	8.86	60.34%	3.70%
Jon Wassink	3	WMU	74	205	7.67	7.77	64.25%	5.40%
Jarret Doege	2	BGSU	75	191	7.86	4.43	63.83%	6.90%
Nathan Rourke	3	Ohio	74	209	7.59	11.52	55.14%	5.20%
Gus Ragland	4	MiOh	73	215	7.75	5.22	55.76%	5.90%
Mracus Childers	2	NIU	72	216	6.63	5.55	57.36%	6.40%
Kato Nelson	2	AKR	73	205	7.52	4.67	50.00%	13.00%
James Morgan	3	BGSU	77	226	5.28	3.73	45.28%	4.90%
George Bollas	4	KENT	75	219	3.68	4.68	48.35%	10.80%

Running Backs (Minimum 12 Touches)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tou	AY/R	AY/T	RBP>12
Jonathan Ward	3	CMU	72	194	227	6.71	7.13	18.05
A.J. Oullette	4	Ohio	69	205	202	5.91	8.95	15.72
Emmanuel Reed	3	BUFF	68	190	210	5.05	7.96	14.16
Kenny Young	4	MiOh	67	179	172	6.15	9.31	13.93
Shakif Seymour	2	TOL	71	218	126	7.96	10.28	12.55
Ian Eriksen	4	EMU	70	210	195	5.32	5.67	12.3
Andrew Clair	2	BGSU	70	187	122	7.25	10.48	11.47
Caleb Huntley	2	BALL	70	225	216	5.04	2.89	11.35
Justin Rankin	3	KENT	69	206	165	4.43	6.72	9.64
Art Thompkins	3	TOL	68	180	120	6.4	6.15	8.88
Alonzo Smith	4	MiOh	70	208	153	4.84	5.29	8.84
Malik Dunner	3	BALL	71	200	92	7.94	4.48	7.59

Wide Receivers (Minimum 18 Targets)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tar	AY/T	Cat%	WRP>18
Diontae Johnson	3	TOL	71	181	105	14.77	71.43%	20.01
Anthony Johnson	4	BUFF	74	207	127	12.8	59.84%	16.78
Scott Miller	4	BGSU	70	164	87	9.19	72.41%	11.02
James Gardner	4	MiOh	76	216	92	12.38	51.09%	10.91
Justin Hall	2	BALL	69	160	116	7.4	67.24%	10.17
Kwadarrius Smith	4	AKR	69	165	64	13.45	53.13%	9.66
Jon'Vea Johnson	4	TOL	72	188	73	10.76	57.53%	9.11
Papi White	4	Ohio	69	168	63	10.93	57.14%	8.36
K.J. Osborn	3	BUFF	72	200	56	10.18	62.50%	7.92
Keishawn Watson	3	WMU	71	185	59	8.63	69.49%	7.7

Tight Ends (Minimum 12 Targets)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tar.	AY/T	Cat%	TEP>12
Jordan Fisher	2	TOL	75	225	29	10.17	68.97%	15.2

Let’s get the fanboying out of the way for Buffalo. Tyree Jackson was really good once he assumed control of the offense and he’s as dangerous on the ground as he is through the air. If he continues to grow this year as a passer he’s going to be the most important QB in the MAC. Joining Jackson are running back Emmanuel Reed who averaged just over 5 adjusted yards per rush (not exceptional) and just shy of 8 adjusted yards per rush. Reed is RB3 in returning production and was one of just four backs to have over 200 touches last year. Where Buffalo’s money will be made this season, will be in the passing game, both Anthony Johnson (6’2, 207 lbs and 12.18 AY/T) and K.J. Osborn (10.18 AY/T). The Buffalo offense is going to be so much fun to watch and will be scary good if the offensive line gels after losing a few pieces. So yeah, I’m high on the Buffalo offense. Moving on, the MAC also had five QBs that topped the 7 AY/A and outside of Jackson, Wassink at WMU and Rourke at Ohio both topped 7 AY/R. Rourke for his part was a spectacular 11.52 AY/R and if he can push towards the 60% completion percentage line he’s going to be a handful for everyone on the Bobcats’ schedule. Lastly, I wanted to point out that Jarret Doege isn’t much of a runner, but he stands out amongst the top four with the second-best completion percentage. Where Jarret Doege wasn’t a great runner last year, Andrew Clair was dynamite as a freshman. On just 122 touches, Clair produced at 7.25 AY/R and 10.48 AY/T. If Clair can keep his efficiency from dropping to far he’s going to be at the top of this list next year. Jonathan Ward (CMU) was the best back in the league last year. With 227 touches, he put together 6.71 AY/R and 7.13 AY/T. Neither is a ridiculously high number, but both are well above average on a high touch total. Toledo lost Logan Woodside at QB, but the backfield has a pair of backs that’ll be useful to any new QB. Shakif Seymour is Toledo’s answer to Andrew Clair. Seymour is a little bigger 218 to 187 and was better on the ground (7.96 AY/R to 7.25), and just as good through the air (10.28 AY/R to 10.48). Seymour is joined by Art Thompkins who was steady eddy with 6.4 AY/R and 6.15 AY/T in about equal carries (126 to 120).  Seymour will pick up a larger share of the touches for sure but having a high floor guy behind your explosive player is a real nice commodity. Lastly let’s touch on Rourke’s backfield mate at Ohio. A.J. Oullette isn’t the runner Rourke was last season, 11.52 for the latter 5.91 for the former, but Oullette had 8.95 AY/T making him a nice compliment for Rourke in the Ohio backfield. Going back to Toledo, they add to their two-headed backfield with the top producer at WR and TE. Diontae Johnson was a beast in the short area game with 71.4 catch percentage and 14.77 AY/T on 105 targets. That’s crazy efficient and a great safety blank for the new QB, and so is Jordan Fisher. Fisher is the only TE to have above average production in the MAC and had 10+ AY/T on about 2 targets per game. For our final shout-out on offense let’s talk about sophomore Justin Hall at Ball State. Hall as a freshman saw 116 targets and although he only had 7.4 AY/T, he caught 67% of his targets and was WR5 in production as a freshman.

Top Returning Offensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Interior Defensive Linemen (Minimum 12 Points)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tkls	TFLs	Sacks	PDs	Points
Jeremiah Harris	4	EMU	77	255	35	13	6	4	210.75
Doug Costin	3	MiOh	74	285	36	8.5	5	6	193.75
David Konowalski	4	BGSU	75	241	44.5	8.5	3.5	1	119.25
Mike Danna	3	CMU	74	250	42.5	8.5	4	0	109.63
Brian Reinke	4	AKR	76	255	34.5	7.5	3.5	1	108.75
Kyle Junior	3	BGSU	75	275	25.5	6.5	3.5	1	98.5
Ben LeRoy	3	NIU	74	280	26.5	7.5	3	0	89.88
Eric Assoua	4	WMU	74	240	14	5.5	2	2	89
Mitch Stanitzek	4	CMU	76	246	32	6	2.5	1	88.38
Theo Majette	3	KENT	71	251	13.5	6.5	4	0	86.38
Ali Fayad	2	WMU	74	230	17.5	5.5	2.5	0	67.75
Andrew Payne	4	Ohio	74	276	13.5	4.5	3	0	62.63
Steven Clark	4	WMU	74	285	18.5	2.5	0	2	57.63

Edge Rushers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tkls	TFLs	Sacks	PDs	Points
Sutton Smith	3	NIU	72	225	53	29.5	14	3	415.66
Maxx Crosby	3	EMU	77	265	44	17	11	1	291.78
Jamal Davis II	4	AKR	76	235	54	16	2	0	184.09
Nathan Brisson-Fast	4	CMU	77	260	31	9.5	6.5	1	149.09
Chuck Harris	4	BUFF	76	265	58.5	7	4	0	141.03
Antonio Balabani	3	WMU	75	235	26.5	7.5	4	1	119.69
Josh Corcoran	4	NIU	75	250	26	8.5	3.5	2	119.47

Off-Ball Linebackers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tkls	TFLs	Sacks	PDs	Points
Jawuan Johnson	4	NIU	72	218	78.5	18	4	8	236.46
Ulysees Gilbert III	4	AKR	73	225	102.5	9.5	5	7	133.89
Brad Koenig	4	MiOh	73	225	83.5	10.5	3	5	131.46
Khalil Hodge	4	BUFF	73	235	110	6.5	3	4	130
Alex Briones	4	CMU	74	240	69	8.5	3	4	109.83
Jim Jones	4	KENT	73	232	75	8	6	2	102.4
Kyle Rachwal	4	EMU	75	240	50.5	6.5	1.5	2	92.74
John Lako	3	AKR	74	230	52	4.5	1	2	82.63
Evan Croutch	4	Ohio	72	227	54.5	6	2.5	2	79.89
Damon Singleton	4	BALL	74	240	35.5	6	0.5	4	67.24
Jacob White	3	BALL	72	230	55	5	3	1	57.26
Jordan Collier	4	BUFF	71	217	47.5	6	1	1	57.18
Armani Posey	2	BGSU	74	215	37.5	1.5	0	1	54.85
Malik Fountain	4	CMU	74	240	72	2.5	0	2	53.86

Cornerbacks (Minimum 12 Points)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tkls	TFLs	Sacks	PDs	Points
Jordan George	4	AKR	72	205	57	3	0	8	84.5
Sean Bunting	3	CMU	73	180	42	0.5	0	10	84
Kyron Brown	4	AKR	73	190	43	2	0	13	70.5
Joshua Allen	4	MiOh	72	205	46	5	1	7	70.25
Jalen Fox	4	Ohio	71	186	35	1	1	13	69.75
Kahlil Robinson	3	TOL	72	175	53	1	0	8	69
Clint Stephens	4	BGSU	71	183	21	0	0	11	67
Josh Miller	4	BALL	71	185	31	2	0	14	64.5
Jamal Parker	3	KENT	68	183	49	2	1	12	59.75
Justin Clark	2	TOL	71	175	28	0	0	7	43.5
Montre Gregory	4	BGSU	74	186	17	0	0	9	41
Darian Dailey	4	AKR	71	180	36	1	0	8	40.5
Kevin McGill	3	EMU	74	195	20	1	0	8	40.5
Cedric Asseh	3	MiOh	72	190	13	1	0	8	40.5
Ka'dar Hollman	4	TOL	72	190	31	0	0	8	37.5
Deondre Daniels	4	MiOh	71	196	30	0	0	8	37.5
Cameron Jeffries	3	BGSU	70	186	32	1	0	7	37
Tatum Slack	4	BUFF	69	190	23	1	0	9	34.5
Brandon Harris	4	BGSU	76	212	75	3.5	0	6	31.5
Cameron Lewis	4	BUFF	71	185	31	1	0	5	30

Free Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tkls	TFLs	Sacks	PDs	Points
Mandela Lawrence-Burke	3	KENT	72	194	55	6.5	0.5	1	102.59
Marcus Milton	4	BGSU	72	188	48.5	1	0	9	100.78
Kylan Nelson	4	Ohio	70	192	40.5	3	0	8	93.34
Stefan Claiborne	3	WMU	74	190	54	1.5	0	3	80.34
Fred Garth	4	BGSU	76	190	76.5	1	0	5	77.78
Bryce Crosby	2	BALL	70	180	47	3	0	3	72.94
Justin Moody	4	EMU	70	185	41.5	0.5	0	3	62.63
Ross Williams	4	EMU	71	175	22	1	0	7	56.75
Vince Calhoun	3	EMU	71	185	63	1	0	2	55.75

Strong Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player	Year	Team	Height	Weight	Tkls	TFLs	Sacks	PDs	Pts
Brody Hoying	3	EMU	71	205	61	4	1	4	88.78
Javon Hagan	3	Ohio	72	207	65	0.5	0	8	76.71
Shawn Featherstone	4	AKR	74	195	52.5	2	0	4	76.29
Mykelti Williams	3	NIU	71	205	66	1	0	7	74.93
De'Andre Montgomery	4	MiOh	74	228	45.5	3.5	0	3	60.8
Obbie Jackson	3	WMU	70	170	20.5	0	0	5	59.81
Denzel Butler	3	AKR	69	180	31.5	2	1	3	49.36
Tycen Anderson	2	TOL	74	185	21	1.5	0	4	47.14
DeDarallo Blue	3	TOL	72	200	26	5.5	2	2	43.74
Trayshon Foster	3	NIU	71	202	22.5	2	2	2	42.06

On the defensive side of the ball there are three standouts from the conference on the interior: Jeremiah Harris (EMU) and Doug Costin (MiOh). Harris had 13 TFLs and 6 sacks last year while knocking down a handful of passes. He and edge Maxx Crosby combined for 30 TFLs and 17 sacks last year and will be a handful for every line they come up against. NIU is going to need some help on their front with only Ben LeRoy showing up in the top performers on the interior, but with relatively pedestrian numbers (7.5 TFLs and 3 sacks). Behind LeRoy though, Sutton Smith (Jr.), Josh Corcoran (Sr.), and Jawuan Johnson (Sr.) combined for 157.5 tackles, 56 TFLs, and 21.5 sacks. That should be enough for the best front seven in the conference, although Akron & Central Michigan certainly have a claim to it. Akron’s Reinke, Davis II, Gilbert III, and Lako combined for 233 tackles, 37 TFLs, and 11.5 sacks. Central Michigan’s Danna, Stanitzek, Brisson-Fast, Briones, and Fountain combined for 246.5 tackles, 35 TFLs, and 16 sacks. Those are some impressive bases to build from and especially the linebacker talent against the run. In the back seven Akron and EMU look to be in the best shape of the teams with the most upside in the front seven, and Ohio has a top five performer at each position. EMU has a top safety producer (Hoying, 4 PDs, 61 tackles), but their above average producers at corner (McGill 8 PDs) and free safety (Moody, Williams, and Calhoun (12 PDs and 126.5 tackles combined). Akron on the other hand has corner, Jordan George and Kyron Brown, who combined for 21 PDs and 100 tackles in their junior year. Behind them Shawn Featherstone and Denzel Butler combined for 7 more PDs and 84 tackles. With their upside in the front seven they may be best situated to be the top defense in the conference or at least most improved. Laslty, is Ohio who’s back seven returning producers includes CB5 Jalen Fox with his 13 PDs, FS3 Kylan Nelson and his 40.5 tackles and 8 PDs, and SS2 Javon Hagan and his 8 PDs and 65 tackles. There’s production returning, but it’s not necessarily top tier talent nationally.