2018 College Football Preview: G5 Wrap-up

This is the first of two group of “______” previews. This one is of course wrapping up my preview of the G5. We’ll compare contrast the conferences and divisions, look at a G5 only top 25, and home field advantage (HFA).

You can find the individual conference previews by clicking on the Conference name in the average rating chart and you can find the P.L.U.M.P. Lists’ by going to the blog home page and clicking on the list you want to peruse. (You can find the Independents preview here.)

Conference	Average Rating	Division	Average Rating
AAC	-2.39	AAC West	0.49
MWC	-5.97	MWC Mountain	-3.02
MAC	-6.01	CUSA East	-4.55
CUSA	-6.32	MAC West	-5.02
SBC	-9.24	AAC East	-5.28
		MAC East	-7.01
		CUSA West	-8.09
		SBC East	-8.75
		MWC West	-8.92
		SBC West	-9.72

I went in ascending order with the previews and therefore there isn’t any surprise as to the order of conferences, what’s a bit surprising is the split between them and the middle three and the middle three and the Sun Belt. The other thing is to contemplate just how low the Mountain West would be without Boise (if you make Boise 0.00 the conference drops to -7.32). A fair question is the comparable effect of UCF being removed from the AAC average, and the answer is it matters (falls to -3.92) but still leaves the AAC as a clear cut #1 conference in the G5. The AAC West with the Memphis, SMU, Houston, and Navy quartet is by far the best in the G5. Whereas, Arkansas State is the proverbial cream rising to the top of the Sun Belt West that’s clearly weaker even at first blush when compared to the SBC East.

Below is the full list of G5 teams, their power rating, their adjusted recruiting z-score, and their adjusted win-loss from last year adjusted for opponent strength.

Team	Conf.	Div.	Adj. 2017 W/L	Adj. Rec	Rating
UCF	AAC	East	14.76	-0.01	18.33
Boise State	MWC	Moun.	13.59	-0.03	16.20
Memphis	AAC	West	11.10	-0.18	9.90
FAU	CUSA	East	5.93	-0.46	9.33
Fresno State	MWC	West	3.40	-0.62	8.82
San Diego State	MWC	West	7.35	-0.33	7.29
Army	Indep	-	5.45	-1.06	7.28
SMU	AAC	West	2.91	-0.46	5.71
North Texas	CUSA	West	2.43	-1.03	4.62
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	West	-1.43	-0.64	2.99
Liberty	Indep	-	0.00	-2.08	2.84
Marshall	CUSA	East	-1.01	-0.31	2.49
Northern Illinois	MAC	West	-0.40	-0.91	1.30
Toledo	MAC	West	6.68	-0.51	1.01
Wyoming	MWC	Moun	-1.44	-1.06	0.99
Ohio	MAC	East	-0.68	-0.97	0.61
USF	AAC	East	6.49	-0.18	0.54
Troy	SuB	East	5.18	-0.96	0.53
Navy	AAC	West	5.42	-0.75	0.27
Houston	AAC	West	4.84	-0.06	0.25
Arkansas State	SuB	West	-3.20	-0.78	-0.94
BYU	Indep	-	-4.47	-0.05	-2.30
Buffalo	MAC	East	-6.81	-1.26	-2.89
Temple	AAC	East	-1.55	-0.50	-2.99
UAB	CUSA	West	-6.00	-1.25	-3.39
Group of 5 - Top 25 (Above)
Western Michigan	MAC	West	-2.88	-0.41	-3.87
Appalachian State	SuB	East	-0.55	-1.04	-4.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	East	-8.88	-1.05	-4.21
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	East	-3.81	-0.79	-4.73
Utah State	MWC	Moun	-4.80	-0.92	-4.80
ULM	SuB	West	-7.54	-1.00	-5.23
Miami (OH)	MAC	East	-9.00	-0.81	-5.38
Tulane	AAC	West	-4.07	-0.69	-6.24
Akron	MAC	East	-3.89	-1.48	-6.39
Tulsa	AAC	West	-9.30	-0.80	-6.95
New Mexico State	Indep	-	-5.07	-1.35	-6.95
Eastern Michigan	MAC	West	-5.63	-1.14	-7.12
FIU	CUSA	East	0.23	-0.66	-7.12
Colorado State	MWC	Moun	-1.46	-0.48	-7.73
Southern Miss	CUSA	West	-0.31	-0.57	-8.03
Georgia Southern	SuB	East	-16.30	-0.63	-8.21
Central Michigan	MAC	West	-1.26	-0.97	-8.54
UMASS	Indep	-	-12.73	-0.87	-9.01
Air Force	MWC	Moun	-5.66	-1.14	-9.73
Cincinnati	AAC	East	-7.89	-0.09	-9.95
UNLV	MWC	West	-9.11	-0.89	-10.85
Nevada	MWC	West	-10.25	-0.87	-10.93
Louisiana	SuB	West	-9.70	-0.97	-11.41
WKU	CUSA	East	-9.02	-0.70	-12.48
South Alabama	SuB	West	-14.40	-0.94	-12.49
Ball State	MAC	West	-15.82	-0.95	-12.89
New Mexico	MWC	Moun	-10.21	-1.04	-13.04
Georgia State	SuB	East	-6.79	-1.11	-13.19
Kent State	MAC	East	-13.08	-1.21	-13.31
UTSA	CUSA	West	-5.74	-0.72	-13.98
Bowling Green	MAC	East	-14.06	-0.86	-14.67
Charlotte	CUSA	East	-18.71	-1.16	-15.17
Rice	CUSA	West	-15.44	-1.19	-17.39
Connecticut	AAC	East	-9.63	-0.88	-18.21
Texas State	SuB	West	-17.66	-0.87	-18.52
Coastal Carolina	SuB	East	-15.83	-1.50	-18.86
East Carolina	AAC	East	-9.66	-0.51	-19.42
UTEP	CUSA	West	-16.66	-1.45	-21.43
San Jose State	MWC	West	-17.55	-0.60	-23.16
Hawaii	MWC	West	-13.43	-0.90	-24.72

Lastly, we’re looking at home field advantage (HFA). Schools are rated on three categories (from 0-6): Average Attendance, Stadium Capacity, and % of capacity filled. Those three are then weighted with % full weighted highest, average attendance second most, and stadium capacity last. Those numbers are taken for the last three season and weighted for the most recent heaviest.

Conference	Average HFA	Division	Average HFA
AAC	2.29	AAC West	2.32
MWC	1.97	MWC Mountain	2.29
SBC	1.82	SBC East	2.29
CUSA	1.72	AAC East	2.27
MAC	1.44	CUSA East	1.95
		MWC West	1.66
		MAC East	1.64
		CUSA West	1.50
		SBC West	1.34
		MAC West	1.24

The AAC holds strong here as well, but the big shock for me is the lackluster showing of the MAC. I think the biggest shock is the MAC, but with the number of mid-week games probably affects them more than any conference (Sun Belt???) in the country. Outside of that it slots pretty much how you’d expect, the better division draw better and fill their stadiums better and the weaker divisions lag.

So there we are, UCF and Boise look like legit challengers at least to most P5 teams and are the top candidates for the G5 spot in the New Year’s Six. The top of the CUSA, MWC and AAC are going to be fun, and there are a number of lopsided division.