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Tuesday, August 21, 2018

2018 College Football Previews: Pac-12


The Pac-12 has lost some luster over the past couple of seasons as they’ve cannibalized each other, good coaches have left, and poor hires have been made. The most recent set of hires however give some hope of a rebound for a conference that already has a geographical disadvantage when it comes to attracting positive attention.

The average power rating for the Pac-12 squads is 9.01.

The average power rating for the Pac-12 North squads is 9.96.

The average power rating for the Pac-12 South squads is 8.06.



Team
Adj.
2017
W/L
%
Yards
Ret.
%
Touches
Ret.
%
Line
Starts
Ret.
%
Tackles
Ret.
%
Passes
Def.
Re.t
247
Sports
Score
Total
Points
North Division
Stanford
20.5
83.71%
82.17%
79.49%
59.62%
48.48%
233.95
24.06
Washington
14.96
78.54%
77.28%
68.09%
70.58%
74.47%
222.8
21.81
Washington State
12.67
42.56%
41.70%
32.28%
62.43%
81.48%
180.97
10.75
Oregon
6.11
68.00%
64.53%
64.49%
67.07%
57.14%
230.97
8.7
California
1.01
89.52%
86.70%
100.00%
68.57%
71.79%
186.76
7.41
Oregon State
-9.39
42.65%
39.16%
72.16%
68.45%
73.68%
176.54
-12.95
South Division
USC
23.09
28.70%
29.66%
55.86%
71.05%
69.57%
291.34
22.28
UCLA
8.79
42.47%
49.25%
23.33%
92.24%
75.61%
250.18
9.16
Arizona State
11.36
78.84%
68.09%
62.99%
42.61%
21.70%
214.38
8.33
Arizona
3.98
70.75%
63.92%
42.21%
78.43%
81.82%
184.58
639
Utah
2.53
70.17%
72.73%
58.06%
62.45%
61.70%
199.01
4.65
Colorado
-0.2
61.10%
56.64%
35.66%
64.92%
58.06%
178.08
-2.43

The headliners are the usual suspects in 2018. USC is the class of the south, Washington again should be a title contender under Chris Peterson, and Stanford returns most of its offense and has recruited at a high level over the past four years. Outside of the big three (for 2018), Oregon brings back a lot of experience and a possible top overall pick in the 2018 draft. Cal brings back no less than 67% of last year’s production at each of the five categories. Wazzu brings back, dare I say it, a defense and the south division brings back a lot of fire power. All-in-all the Pac-12 looks primed for a bounce back in 2018, but they may devour each other without gaining the public perception bump.

Top Returning Offensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Quarterbacks (Minimum 120 Pass Attempts)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
AY/A
AY/R
Comp%
Sack%
Justin Herbert
3
ORE
78
225
9.94
9.91
67.48%
4.60%
Jake Browning
4
WASH
74
210
8.51
8.62
68.45%
5.40%
Khalil Tate
3
ARIZ
74
215
8.14
12.23
62.01%
6.80%
Manny Wilkins
4
ASU
75
200
8.04
6.67
63.41%
8.90%
K.J. Costello
3
STAN
77
217
7.88
9.11
58.77%
3.70%
Steven Montez
3
COLO
77
225
7.74
6.27
60.48%
8.50%
Tyler Huntley
3
Utah
73
190
7.21
6.02
63.78%
8.80%
Ross Bowers
3
CAL
74
200
6.17
5.55
59.00%
6.90%
Jake Luton
4
OrSt
79
234
5.56
5.09
61.48%
4.30%

Running Backs (Minimum 12 Touches)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tou.
AY/R
AY/T
RBP>12
Myles Gaskin
4
WASH
70
191
241
7.96
12.08
25.28
Bryce Love
4
STAN
70
196
269
9.38
3.3
24.68
Zack Moss
3
Utah
70
210
245
6.27
6.57
18.14
Patrick Laird
4
CAL
72
200
237
6.64
6.09
17.98
J.J. Taylor
2
ARIZ
66
180
159
6.39
6.74
12.02
Cameron Scarlett
4
STAN
73
213
97
5.89
19.33
10.47
James Williams
3
WAZZ
71
195
163
4.49
6.75
9.62
Bolu Olorunfunmi
4
UCLA
70
215
127
5.62
7.87
9.16
Soso Jamabo
4
UCLA
74
210
107
6.18
8.5
8.44
Tony Brooks-James
4
ORE
69
175
108
5.75
7.78
7.89

Wide Receivers (Minimum 18 Targets)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tar.
AY/T
Cat%
WRP>18
N'Keal Harry
3
ASU
76
216
120
10.8
68.33%
15.48
Tyler Vaughns
2
USC
74
185
75
12.07
76.00%
13.74
Kyle Williams
3
ASU
70
180
87
10.32
75.86%
12.98
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
4
STAN
75
222
75
12.73
64.00%
12.2
Shun Brown
4
ARIZ
69
177
56
12.3
76.79%
11.76
Tony Ellison
4
ARIZ
69
177
56
12.3
76.79%
11.76
Kanawai Noa
3
CAL
72
185
87
9.94
64.37%
10.61
Vic Wharton III
4
CAL
71
200
111
8.72
60.36%
10.4
Renard Bell
2
WAZZ
68
162
57
10.72
71.93%
9.7
Raelon Singleton
4
Utah
75
212
56
10.86
64.29%
8.69
Jalen Harvey
4
ASU
73
203
53
11.16
64.15%
8.62
Theo Howard
3
UCLA
72
180
84
7.99
66.67%
8.62
Juwann Winfree
4
COLO
75
210
28
12.99
75.00%
8.5
Dillon Mitchell
3
ORE
73
185
64
9.28
65.63%
8.23
Isaiah Johnson-Mack
3
WAZZ
75
216
90
7.24
66.67%
8.19
Brenden Schooler
3
ORE
74
195
27
12.29
74.07%
7.82

On offense the QB situation is well entrenched in the Pac-12. As noted above Justin Herbert is a Heisman candidate, a top of the draft pick, and a well-rounded athlete. Herbert was as effective on the ground as he was in the air in 2017 (9.94 AY/A and 9.91 AY/R) and was second only to Jake Browning in completion percentage (67.48% to 68.45%) in a conference that had 7 passers hit the 60% mark. Of those seven passers that hit the 60% comp% mark Herbert, Browning, Tate, and Wilkins where all above 8 AY/A. Of those four Tate stands out for his success on the ground. At 12.23 AY/R Tate would be special when compared to a group of running backs. Tate needs to refine himself a bit more in the passing game, but his sophomore breakout certainly points to a special ability to run an efficient offense. Manny Wilkins is the last of the highlighted group of QBs, but Wilkins will need to work on his ability to avoid sacks in his senior season. If he can stay upright, not all his fault by the way, he has the skill to change the narrative on a game on a dime. Outside of the big four K.J. Costello and a smattering of other junior QBs will need to be more efficient in 2018 to make the Pac-12 the QB conference of the year. Browning is joined in his backfield by Myles Gaskin. Gaskin was prolific but overshadowed in 2017 by Bryce Love (STAN). Gaskin was less efficient on the ground (7.96 to 9.38 AY/R) but was 4 times as productive on double the targets as Love (12.08 to 3.3 AY/T). The battle for running back production supremacy in the Pac-12 will be exciting and entertaining between Gaskin and Love in 2018. For Browning that’s about where his returning help ends. Outside of TE Hunter Bryant who produced good numbers (12.51 AY/T) on 28 targets last season, there aren’t any other Washington producers on the three skill position producer lists. It’s a similar but more optimistic story for Herbert. He does have at least one player in each skill position producers but none of them are on the elite end. At RB, Tony Brooks-James was solid (5.75 AY/R and 7.78 AY/T) on 108 touches. At WR, Dillon Mitchell (9.28 AY/T) and Brenden Schooler (12.29) were productive on a combined 91 targets, as was TE Jacob Breeland (14.36 AY/T) on his 29 targets. Costello and Love are joined in Stanford’s offense by WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside and TE Kaden Smith. Arcega-Whiteside is a big bodied receiver, 222 pounds, who caught 64% of his targets for 12.73 AY/T. Smith for his part nearly matched Arcega-Whiteside per target but caught just 56% of those targets. Behind love at RB is Cameron Scarlet and his absurd 19.33 AY/T and 5.89 AY/R. He and Love are perfect compliments. ASU and Wilkins don’t bring much back at RB but boy are they set up for an explosive passing game. N’Keal Harry (Jr.), Kyle Williams (Jr.), and Jalen Harvey (Sr.) are all back. Harry caught 68.33% of his 120 targets for a respectable 10.8 AY/T, Williams caught 75% of his 87 targets for 10.32 AY/T, and Harvey was the most explosive with 11.16 AY/T on his 53 targets. Joining Tate at Arizona is sophomore J.J. Taylor who was good in both the run and pass with adjusted per rates above 6. If he can continue to be efficient in his second season next to Tate who has a pair of senior receivers returning as well. That pair of receivers, Shun Brown and Tony Ellison combined for 1,000+ yards and 11 TD on 115 targets. If Arizona can make the passing game even more of a threat there’s experience to help Tate make this offense truly special.  Tyler Huntley was good but not great last year for Utah (7.21 AY/A and 6.02 AY/R), but the special player in the backfield, last year, was sophomore Zack Moss. Moss got 245 touches last season and took both targets and rushes for 6+ adjusted yards. The only other Ute on these lists is senior WR Raelon Singletary who took his 56 targets for 10.86 AY/T. The last RB we’re going to specifically touch on is Cal Bear Patrick Laird. Laird had 237 touches, was also a part of the 6+/6+ club and as a senior is set to lead an offense with a quartet of juniors and seniors. The juniors, QB Ross Bowers (6.17 AY/A and 5.55 AY/R) and WR Kanawai Noa (9.94 AY/T on 87 targets), were good if unspectacular and ditto for senior WR Vic Wharton III (8.72 AY/T on 111 targets). At Tight End we need to touch on UCLA’s Caleb Wilson and Oregon State’s Noah Togai. Wilson caught an astounding 79% of his targets and had an AY/T of 10.61, while Togai is the leading target getter returning (54) of the tight ends and had a respectable 9.25 AY/T.

Top Returning Defensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Interior Defensive Linemen (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Pts
Christian Rector
3
USC
76
275
28
11
7.5
0
153.13
Malik Dorton
4
USC
74
280
17.5
3.5
2.5
5
116.75
Jaelan Phillips
2
UCLA
77
255
18.5
7
3.5
2
113.75
Greg Gaines
4
WASH
74
322
23
5
2.5
3
104.13
Chigozie Nnoruka
3
UCLA
74
295
42
8.5
2
0
94
Nnamdi Oguayo
3
WAZZ
75
237
27
7
4
0
93.75
Marcus Moore
2
UCLA
74
250
16.5
5.5
1
1
68.88
Jaylen Johnson
4
WASH
75
298
13.5
4
3.5
0
62.5
Jovan Swann
3
STAN
74
263
18.5
3.5
1.5
1
60.75
Finton Connolly
3
ARIZ
77
275
15
4.5
2.5
0
59.13
Jordon Scott
2
ORE
73
333
27
4.5
2
0
58.25
Kalani Vakameilalo
4
OrSt
75
316
15
3
2
1
56.25

Edge Rushers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Pts
Jalen Jelks
4
ORE
78
245
46.5
15
6.5
7
230.72
Kylan Wilborn
2
ARIZ
74
245
30.5
9.5
7.5
1
211.5
Justin Hollins
4
ORE
77
238
43.5
12
3.5
1
203.44
Bradlee Anae
3
Utah
75
265
32
10
7
0
187
Tevis Bartlett
4
WASH
74
234
41
12
4
3
171.06
Ryan Bowman
2
WASH
72
262
26
9.5
5.5
0
134.91
Cameron Goode
2
CAL
75
220
33
5.5
1.5
4
123.84
Alex Funches
4
CAL
74
235
31
11
4
0
119.97
La'Mar Winston Jr
3
ORE
74
214
38
8
2
3
117

Off-Ball Linebackers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Pts
Troy Dye
3
ORE
76
224
84.5
13.5
4
5
148.28
Colin Schooler
2
ARIZ
72
226
81
13.5
4
3
136.34
Cameron Smith
4
USC
74
250
86
11
0.5
4
114.33
Ben Burr-Kirven
4
WASH
72
222
68
4
1
6
107.76
Jahad Woods
2
WAZZ
72
214
48.5
11
2.5
1
97.74
Tony Fields II
2
ARIZ
73
225
84.5
7.5
5
2
89.86
Jordan Kumaszyk
4
CAL
75
240
57
6
3.5
2
81.97
Jonathan Willis
4
OrSt
73
235
52
6
3
2
79.34
Drew Lewis
4
COLO
74
230
75
5.5
2
2
72.54
John Houston Jr
3
USC
75
210
62
3.5
1.5
5
71.93
Rick Gamboa
4
COLO
72
240
69
2.5
1
5
69.28
Justus Rogers
2
WAZZ
74
225
35
6.5
3
0
51.23
Jordan Iosefa
3
USC
74
225
25.5
3
1
2
50.68
Nate Landman
2
COLO
75
215
13
4
0
2
49.48

Cornerbacks (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Pts
Lorenzo Burns
2
ARIZ
70
173
70
3.5
1
12
102.25
Jace Whittaker
4
ARIZ
71
182
43
2
0
16
90.5
Ugochukwu Amadi
4
ORE
69
197
37
2.5
1.5
11
77.88
Jack Jones
3
USC
71
170
36
0
0
11
76.5
Byron Murphy
2
WASH
71
175
15
3
1
10
74.75
Julian Blackmon
3
Utah
73
187
43
0.5
0
10
74.5
Ajene Harris
4
USC
70
190
47
1.5
0.5
9
65.63
Camryn Bynum
2
CAL
72
180
48
0.5
0.5
10
56.63
Thomas Graham Jr
2
ORE
70
189
56
1
0
7
56
Myles Bryant
3
WASH
58
180
48
5
0
9
56
Nate Meadors
4
UCLA
71
195
47
2
1
10
52.75
Jordan Miller
4
WASH
73
184
21
0
0
7
43.5
Nick Fisher
4
COLO
72
190
22
1.5
0
7
38.5
Iman Marshall
4
USC
73
205
43
1
0
10
38
Deommodore Lenoir
2
ORE
71
190
21
1.5
0
6
35
Jaylon Johnson
2
Utah
72
181
24
0
0
7
34
Sean Harper Jr
4
WAZZ
74
186
21
0
0
7
34
Marcus Strong
3
WAZZ
69
177
18
0
0
7
34
Chase Lucas
2
ASU
72
178
53
1
0
8
31

Free Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Pts
Evan Worthington
4
COLO
74
200
72
6.5
1
9
167.53
Hunter Dale
4
WAZZ
70
190
35.5
8
3
5
133.28
Jalen Thompson
3
WAZZ
72
191
59.5
5.5
0
6
121.13
Austin Joyner
3
WASH
70
182
37.5
6
2
2
84.34
Casey Hughes
4
Utah
72
185
30
2.5
1
1
82.16
Marvell Tell III
4
USC
74
195
63.5
2.5
1
5
81.25
Frank Buncom
4
STAN
74
200
35.5
1
0
4
69.41
Marquise Blair
4
Utah
74
190
41.5
3
0
2
65.03
Kobe Williams
3
ASU
70
162
32.5
2
0
5
63.72
Jaylinn Hawkins
3
CAL
74
205
32.5
1.5
0
2
63.44
Darnay Holmes
2
UCLA
70
195
34
1
0
6
58.69
Ben Edwards
4
STAN
72
199
30
0
0
4
55.63
Trey Udoffia
2
COLO
72
185
35
0.5
0
6
53.91

Strong Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Pts
Demetrius
Flannigan-Fowles
4
ARIZ
74
205
69
0
0
6
97.5
Adarius Pickett
4
UCLA
71
195
74
4
0
4
78.08
Corrion Ballard
4
Utah
75
205
38
1
0
4
66.43
David Morris
2
OrSt
75
197
61.5
4
0
2
64.64
Scottie Young Jr
2
ARIZ
71
195
45.5
3.5
0
2
56.43
Chase Hansen
4
Utah
75
220
41
2.5
1
3
55.14
Taylor Rapp
3
WASH
72
212
50.5
3.5
2
1
54.83
Javelin K Guidry
2
Utah
69
188
26
1
0
5
51.18
Octavius Spencer
4
UCLA
71
180
28
0
0
5
47.5
Ykili Ross
3
USC
73
190
10
1
0
2
47.18
Omar Hicks-Onu
3
OrSt
73
202
32.5
2.5
0
2
47.13
Quentin Tartabull
4
CAL
71
200
38.5
0
0
4
47.06
Jalen Moore
3
OrSt
72
213
62.5
2
0
3
45.41

On the defensive side of the ball USC is going to be a beast inside. They have a pair of tackles, Christian Rector and Malik Dorton who combined for 45.5 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, 10 sacks, and 5 passes defensed. That’s a nice disruption base to build off of, and behind them are a trio of returning linebackers should help fill some of the gap left on the edges. Cameron Smith is the leader of those LBs with 86 tackles, 11 TFLs, and 4 PDs. Next to Smith are John Houston Jr (Jr.) and Jordan Iosefa (Jr.) who combined 87.5 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, and 7 PDs. In the secondary, Jack Jones is back after an 11 PD sophomore season and is joined at corner by Ajene Harris and Iman Marshall who combined for 90 tackles and 19 passes defensed. At Safety, Marvell Tell III and Ykili Ross are back and add 73.5 tackles and 7 PDs. Across town, UCLA brings back a trio of interior linemen, Jaelan Phllips (So.), Chigozie Nnoruka (Jr.), and Marcus Moore (So.), who combined for 21 TFLs and 6.5 sacks. There isn’t much back on the outside or at linebacker, and a quartet back at DB. The highest rated of each is safety Ardarius Pickett who had 74 tackles and 4 PDs. Pickett is joined by Nate Meadors (CB), Darnay Holmes (FS), and Octavius Spencer (SS) who combined last season 109 tackles and 21 passes defensed. Washington joins the LA schools in having two interior linemen returning, but unlike those two teams, Washington has a pair of producers returning at the edge rusher position. On the interior are Greg Gaines and Jaylen Johnson who combined for 9 TFLs and 6 sacks, while on the outside Tevis Bartlett and Ryan Bowman combined for 67 tackles, 21.5 TFLs, and 9.5 sacks. At linebacker Ben Burr-Kirven had 68 tackles, 4 TFLs and 6 passes defensed. In the secondary, a trio of corners and a pair of safeties are back. The corners Murphy (So.), Bryant (Jr.), and Miller (Sr.) combined for 8 TFLs and 26 passes defensed. At safety, juniors Austin Joyner and Taylor Rapp return with 89 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, and 3 passes defensed. As we move to the elite at edge rusher, it’s interesting to note that, outside of Washington, the teams with elite players on the edge don’t have elite players on the interior. Oregon brings back a pair of edge rushers who combined for 90 tackles, 27 TFLs, 10 sacks, and 8 passes defensed. They are joined by sophomore interior lineman Jordon Scott, who had 4.5 TFLs and 2 sacks at nose guard, and junior OBLB who had 8.45 Tackles, 13.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, and 5 passes defensed. In the secondary a trio of corners, senior Ugochukwu Amadi and sophomores Thomas Graham Jr and Deommodore Lenoir, combined for 24 PDs, 5 TFLs, and 114 tackles. Overall, Oregon is going to be scary on defense. In Arizona, sophomore Kylan Wilborn burst onto the scene as a freshman with 9.5 TFLs and 7.5 sacks. He’s joined by fellow sophomore linebackers Colin Schooler and Tony Fields II who combined for 165.5 tackles, 21 TFLs, 9 sacks, and 5 passes defensed. They’re joined in the front seven by junior Finton Connolly with 4.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. Continuing the vein of youth into the secondary are a pair of sophomores and a pair of seniors. The Wildcats bring back the two most productive corners in the conference: Lorenzo Burns and Jace Whittaker. Burns and Whittaker combined for 113 tackles, 5.5 TFLs and 28 PDs. At safety, Demtrius Flannigan-Fowler and Scottie Young Jr combined for an additional 114.5 tackles and 8 passes defensed. This Arizona defense might be a year away with so many sophomores, but it’s going to be fun to watch them grow into what should be a beast of a core next season. Utah will have a well-coached defense but in the front seven they only return Bradlee Anae in the front seven but he’s a good one who had 10 TFLs and 7 sacks. There is more back in secondary than the front seven. At corner Justin Blackmon had 43 tackles and 10 PDs and Jaylon Johnson had 7 PDs. At free safety Casey Hughes and Marquise Blair combined for 71.5 tackles and 3 PDs, and at strong safety Corrion Ballard, Chase Hansen, and Javelin Guidry combined for 105 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, and 12 PDs. The last pair of edge rushers play at CAL. Sophomore Cameron Goode and senior Alex Funches are back and they return with 16.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, and 4 PDs. They’re joined by linebacker Jordan Kumaszyk who adds 57 tackles, 6 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, 2 PDs. Behind those three are a trio of DBs, Camryn Bynum (CB), Jaylinn Hawkins (FS), and Quentin Tartabull (SS) who combined for 119 tackles and 16 passes defensed. Wazzu brings back someone at each level of the defense. On the line Nnamdi Oguayo is back after a 7 TFL and 4 sack sophomore season. At linebacker sophomores Jahad Woods and Jordan Iosefa combined for 74 tackles, 14 TFLs, and 5.5 sacks. In the secondary, a quartet of DBs (Harper Jr/Strong/Dale/Thompson) are back with a combined 133 tackles, 13.5 TFLs, and 25 passes defensed. Colorado has depth in the back seven where a half dozen players are back, led by Evan Worthington. Worthington had 72 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, and 9 PDs as a junior. He’s joined by fellow safety Try Udoffia (So.), corner Nick Fisher (Sr.), and linebackers Drew Lewis (Sr.), Rick Gamboa (Sr.), and Nate Landman (So.). The quintet combined for 22 PDs and 214 tackles. The real thing of note is that Stanford has quite a bit of attrition and are lacking in production and experience on the defensive side of the ball.

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