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Wednesday, August 1, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football: 2nd QB Ranks


This set of ranks I’m going to put out between college football preview pieces. I want to be very clear about this set of rankings, it’s much more weighted to how I think the battles will, or should, come out and less on where they sit on depth charts. This won’t affect QBs all that much.

QB Rankings

Elite Tier
Player
Rank
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Pos.
Diff
1st
Rank
Rank
Diff.
1st
ADP
Aaron Rodgers
1
GB
1
33
1
0
1
0
35
Russell Wilson
2
SEA
1
56
4
-2
2
0
53

Nearly Elite, but Also, Maybe Not Tier
Player
Rank
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Pos.
Diff
1st
Rank
Rank
Diff.
1st
ADP
Tom Brady
3
NE
2
55
3
0
3
0
54
Cam Newton
4
CAR
2
65
5
-1
5
-1
66
Deshaun Watson
5
HOU
2
52
2
3
7
2
50
Drew Brees
6
NO
2
68
6
0
4
2
67

No big changes in the top six aside from splitting the top two off. The more I think about it, the more I like Rodgers and Wilson and have “problems” with the next four. The other change is dropping Watson down 2 spots and Brees up 2 spots. I’m think Watson is just slightly worse than the hype and Brees is being disregarded to easily because of one season.

I’m Probably Drafting One of These as My Starter Tier
Player
Rank
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Pos.
Diff
1st
Rank
Rank
Diff.
1st
ADP
Kirk Cousins
7
MIN
3
97
9
-2
6
1
90
Ben Roethlisberger
8
PIT
3
93
8
0
9
-1
94
Alex Smith
9
WAS
3
137
18
-9
14
-5
139
Matt Stafford
10
DET
3
99
10
0
10
0
97
Blake Bortles
11
JAC
3
179
26
-15
15
-4
184
Jimmy Garoppolo
12
SF
3
102
11
1
8
4
99

Starters with Low QB1 Upside and Wide Variability Tier
Player
Rank
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Pos.
Diff.
1stRk
Rank
Diff.
1stADP
Marcus Mariota
13
TEN
4
133
17
-4
12
1
134
Patrick Mahomes II
14
KC
4
114
15
-1
18
-4
117
Philip Rivers
15
LAC
4
107
13
2
17
-2
111
Andrew Luck
16
IND
4
106
12
4
16
0
112
Carson Wentz
17
PHI
4
71
7
10
11
6
72
Dak Prescott
18
DAL
4
147
20
-2
19
-1
142
Matt Ryan
19
ATL
4
110
14
5
13
6
114

To be honest tier three and tier four is probably pretty fluid, the split I made is about variance in conceivable outcomes. My biggest changes here are Wentz and Ryan moving from fringe QB1s to mid QB2s. Again, ask me on individual days which QBs I like from either one of these tiers. As or my three disagreements with ADP? Well, quickly: Bortles has been a good fantasy asset and a horrible real life QB. Gruden made Cousins a consistent top 5 performer why not Smith. Wentz was better last year then I could have imagined, I think he’ll regress, and I think they run more this season.

Starters With Large Question Marks Tier
Player
Rank
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Pos.
Diff.
1stRk
Rank
Diff.
1stADP
Jameis Winston
20
TB
5
160
22
-2
22
-2
118
Derek Carr
21
OAK
5
140
19
2
20
1
135
Eli Manning
22
NYG
5
155
21
1
21
1
159
Tyrod Taylor
23
CLE
5
194
27
-4
35
-12
202
Mitchell Trubisky
24
CHI
5
166
23
1
23
1
171
Jared Goff
25
LAR
5
121
16
9
24
1
107
Ryan Tannehill
27
MIA
5
206
28
-1
26
1
205
Andy Dalton
27
CIN
5
284
37
-10
27
0
163
Case Keenum
28
DEN
5
284
37
-9
25
3
171

The biggest difference from my last rankings is Taylor who I think starts a good portion of the year in Cleveland. As for my differences with ADP, well, Dalton/Keenum is probably going to be a solid QB2 although I like the handful of guys in front of them, he’s probably going to outperform them in fantasy.

One of These Guys Will Be Useful Tier
Player
Rank
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Pos.
Diff.
1stRk
Rank
Diff.
1stADP
Josh Rosen
29
ARI
6
234
31
-2
31
-2
235
Joe Flacco
30
BAL
6
226
29
1
28
2
226
A.J. McCarron
31
BUF
6
284
37
-6
30
1
304
Baker Mayfield
32
CLE
6
231
30
2
32
0
221
Teddy Bridgewater
33
NYJ
6
284
37
-4
33
0
304
Sam Darnold
34
NYJ
6
240
32
2
36
-2
240
Ryan Fitzpatrick
35
TB
6
284
37
-2
42
-7
304
Sam Bradford
36
ARI
6
244
33
3
34
2
284
Nick Foles
37
PHI
6
284
37
0
39
-2
304
Jacoby Brissett
38
IND
6
284
37
1
40
-2
304

Nothing to see here except that Fitzpatrick jumps up half a tier because he’s getting a couple weeks of starts.

Included Because They Have ADP Data Tier
Player
Rank
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Pos.
Diff.
1stRk
Rank
Diff.
1stADP
Josh Allen
39
BUF
7
261
36
3
38
1
34
Lamar Jackson
41
BAL
7
254
34
7
37
4
31

Good news is that Jackson’s ADP has come back to earth, relatively speaking. Otherwise this is just longshot rookie speculation.

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