Holy
shit it’s week 10 already and we’re in full on conference/divisional champ
season. It’s a slower week with 6 of my top 10 on bye and Clemson playing an
FCS opponent. So let’s take a look at what we got for the week ahead.
Weekday
Slate (Thursday to Friday)
Three
good teams playing during the week… against sub-par opponents.
West
Virginia at Baylor (Thurs. 7:00 pm, ESPN)
Georgia
Southern at Appalachian State (Thurs. 7:00 pm, ESPNU)
Navy
at Connecticut (Fri. 7:00 pm, ESPN2)
Baylor,
Appalachian State and Navy are clear favorites in each game. Baylor is the only
undefeated team in the Big XII with the trio of TCU, OU, and Texas up in the
three weeks after this WVU game. This is the ultimate, look-look-look ahead
spot for the Bears. App State is a half game up in the division and a full game
up on 3rd place Georgia Southern. A win here sets them up to clinch
the division at Georgia State in two weeks. A Loss and everything gets weird in
the Sun Belt. Navy gets divisions leader SMU in two weeks after a road date
with Notre Dame next week, but they are at a disadvantage with the tiebreaker
having lost to Memphis earlier in the season. The bigger matchup for Navy’s
divisional aspirations is the Memphis-SMU tilt this week.
Early
Slate (11:00 am to 2:00 pm)
It’s….
a weak slate early this week with a pair of game really affecting divisional
races
Houston
at UCF (11:00 am, ESPN2)
The
only “good” game of the morning slate UCF should romp, but Houston has been
nearly unpredictable recently.
Northern
Illinois at Central Michigan (11:00 am, CBSSN)
CMU
hosts NIU in a battle of 2-loss teams that still have a chance to catch Ball
State for the divisional crown. It’s an alright game of football in a bad early
slate.
Nebraska
at Purdue (11:00 am, FOX)
This
one is fascinating because it’s a matchup of teams that will question their
head coach after they lose but absolutely shouldn’t. Kind of an anxiety bowl
without stakes unless the losing school is incredibly stupid.
|
Home
|
Away
|
Home
Rating
|
Away
Rating
|
My
Spread
|
Win%
|
Date
|
Time
|
TV
|
|
Baylor
|
West Virginia
|
20.391
|
-7.854
|
31.930
|
84.3%
|
10/31
|
19:00
|
ESPN
|
|
Appalachian State
|
Georgia Southern
|
22.822
|
-1.176
|
26.839
|
78.8%
|
10/31
|
19:00
|
ESPNU
|
|
Connecticut
|
Navy
|
-24.217
|
13.727
|
-36.434
|
89.2%
|
11/1
|
19:00
|
ESPN2
|
|
Texas A&M
|
UTSA
|
10.204
|
-15.281
|
30.658
|
82.9%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
SECN
|
|
UCF
|
Houston
|
17.799
|
-1.882
|
22.676
|
74.4%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
ESPN2
|
|
Eastern Michigan
|
Buffalo
|
-4.678
|
-6.902
|
3.373
|
54.0%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
ESPNU
|
|
Central Michigan
|
Northern Illinois
|
-3.538
|
-11.901
|
9.320
|
60.2%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
CBSSN
|
|
Purdue
|
Nebraska
|
-11.063
|
1.523
|
-9.528
|
60.4%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
FOX
|
|
Syracuse
|
Boston College
|
-2.254
|
-3.030
|
3.173
|
53.8%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
ACCN
|
|
Wake Forest
|
NC State
|
8.848
|
-5.368
|
17.053
|
68.4%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
ESPN
|
|
Maryland
|
Michigan
|
-7.679
|
18.322
|
-23.264
|
75.0%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
ABC
|
|
UMASS
|
Liberty
|
-45.101
|
-5.132
|
-38.890
|
91.8%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
-
|
|
FIU
|
Old Dominion
|
-14.508
|
-28.956
|
16.140
|
67.4%
|
11/2
|
11:00
|
ESPN+
|
|
Bowling Green
|
Akron
|
-25.205
|
-45.474
|
21.876
|
73.5%
|
11/2
|
13:00
|
ESPN+
|
|
Notre Dame
|
Virginia Tech
|
11.357
|
-4.390
|
20.564
|
72.1%
|
11/2
|
13:30
|
NBC
|
|
Coastal Carolina
|
Troy
|
-11.123
|
-10.120
|
1.450
|
52.0%
|
11/2
|
14:00
|
ESPN2
|
|
Clemson
|
Wofford
|
40.012
|
-22.636
|
67.502
|
-
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
ACCN
|
|
Kansas
|
Kansas State
|
-6.257
|
10.751
|
-15.524
|
66.8%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
FS1
|
|
Oklahoma State
|
TCU
|
10.995
|
4.745
|
10.105
|
61.1%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
ESPN
|
|
Illinois
|
Rutgers
|
1.078
|
-19.428
|
23.054
|
74.8%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
BTN
|
|
Florida State
|
Miami (FL)
|
5.967
|
-4.076
|
14.365
|
65.6%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
ABC
|
|
Florida
|
Georgia
|
21.158
|
18.874
|
7.258
|
58.1%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
CBS
|
|
Rice
|
Marshall
|
-26.222
|
0.044
|
-25.239
|
77.1%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
-
|
|
North Texas
|
UTEP
|
-13.848
|
-26.627
|
14.814
|
66.0%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
NFL
|
|
Air Force
|
Army
|
15.708
|
-11.069
|
28.767
|
80.9%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
CBSSN
|
|
Charlotte
|
Middle Tennessee
|
-14.331
|
-7.616
|
-4.600
|
55.3%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
ESPN3
|
|
Colorado State
|
UNLV
|
-11.528
|
-19.596
|
10.949
|
61.9%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
-
|
|
ULM
|
Arkansas State
|
-6.589
|
-0.832
|
-5.258
|
56.0%
|
11/2
|
14:30
|
ESPNU
|
|
Washington
|
Utah
|
14.105
|
26.255
|
-7.799
|
58.6%
|
11/2
|
15:00
|
FOX
|
|
Tulane
|
Tulsa
|
6.187
|
-11.016
|
18.814
|
70.3%
|
11/2
|
15:00
|
ESPN2
|
|
Arkansas
|
Mississippi State
|
-16.741
|
-2.205
|
-10.492
|
61.5%
|
11/2
|
15:00
|
SECN
|
|
Georgia Tech
|
Pittsburgh
|
-10.228
|
5.578
|
-12.481
|
63.6%
|
11/2
|
15:00
|
ACCN
|
|
WKU
|
FAU
|
-1.300
|
5.284
|
-4.683
|
55.4%
|
11/2
|
15:00
|
ESPN+
|
|
Arizona
|
Oregon State
|
-2.497
|
-4.004
|
4.585
|
55.2%
|
11/2
|
15:30
|
P12N
|
|
Louisiana
|
Texas State
|
12.342
|
-15.256
|
28.623
|
80.7%
|
11/2
|
16:00
|
ESPN+
|
|
Auburn
|
Mississippi
|
24.105
|
-5.428
|
34.541
|
87.1%
|
11/2
|
18:00
|
ESPN
|
|
East Carolina
|
Cincinnati
|
-19.192
|
21.252
|
-37.678
|
90.5%
|
11/2
|
18:00
|
CBSSN
|
|
Indiana
|
Northwestern
|
12.068
|
-11.070
|
26.256
|
78.2%
|
11/2
|
18:00
|
FS1
|
|
Tennessee
|
UAB
|
-4.767
|
4.710
|
-4.280
|
54.9%
|
11/2
|
18:00
|
ESPNU
|
|
North Carolina
|
Virginia
|
6.660
|
9.561
|
0.377
|
50.8%
|
11/2
|
18:30
|
ACCN
|
|
Memphis
|
SMU
|
17.807
|
27.489
|
-7.608
|
58.4%
|
11/2
|
18:30
|
ABC
|
|
South Carolina
|
Vanderbilt
|
-2.244
|
-11.028
|
13.451
|
64.6%
|
11/2
|
18:30
|
SECN
|
|
USC
|
Oregon
|
14.167
|
22.425
|
-4.496
|
55.2%
|
11/2
|
19:00
|
FOX
|
|
UCLA
|
Colorado
|
-1.472
|
-8.214
|
9.829
|
60.8%
|
11/2
|
20:00
|
P12N
|
|
Utah State
|
BYU
|
3.930
|
-1.814
|
8.038
|
58.9%
|
11/2
|
21:00
|
ESPN2
|
|
Nevada
|
New Mexico
|
-11.377
|
-20.950
|
11.151
|
62.2%
|
11/2
|
21:30
|
ESPNU
|
|
San Jose State
|
Boise State
|
-7.769
|
12.819
|
-19.629
|
71.1%
|
11/2
|
21:30
|
CBSSN
|
|
Hawaii
|
Fresno State
|
4.052
|
-8.495
|
13.947
|
65.1%
|
11/2
|
22:59
|
-
|
Midday
Slate (2:30 pm to 4:00 pm)
A
sneaky good midday slate. Lead by the World’s Largest Cocktail Party.
Georgia
at Florida (2:30 pm, CBS)
They’re
both flawed. They’re tied in the loss column, and the top of the SEC East and
this should be a fun, sloppy, testy, good ol’ slogfest.
FAU
at WKU (3:00 pm, ESPN+)
The
second-best game of the afternoon slate is a battle for first in C-USA East
with both teams having a loss to Marshall, making this a de facto divisional
semi-final.
Utah
at Washington (2:30 pm, FOX)
A
really big game for Utah, a place to play spoiler for Washington, and a game
you shouldn’t watch because others are much more fun.
Kansas
State at Kansas (2:30 pm, FS1)
Could
you imagine beating Oklahoma one week, and losing to Kansas the next? It’s a
real possibility for Kansas State, especially with the Jayhawks playing, dare I
say it, exciting offensive football.
TCU
at Oklahoma State (2:30 pm, ESPN)
The
muddle, I mean middle, of the Big XII has provided some fun games and mildly
confusing results and this game should be another fun one.
Miami
(FL) at Florida State (2:30 pm, ABC)
A
rivalry game between two teams who like to give away games in stupid ways. So,
Florida-Georgia Jr. Keep an eye out for craziness.
Arkansas
State at ULM (2:30 pm, ESPNU)
Arkansas
State has their loss to ULL, ULM gets that date at the end of the year. Like
the UCF game last week, the team that wins stays alive in the division, but ULM
has a much better chance of that coming true than Arkansas State.
Evening
Slate (6:00 pm to 8:00 pm)
It’s
an interesting evening slate with two really interesting games, and a handful
that matter but are… less desirable.
SMU
at Memphis (6:30 pm, ABC)
This
is the best game of the evening slate and maybe the weekend (depending on how
you feel about UF-UGA). SMU is undefeated but all of their underlying stats
suggest that they’ve been relatively lucky. Memphis still looks the one of the favorites
for the AAC crown, but they absolutely need this win to help keep the loss to
Temple two week ago hurt so much less. SMU still has Navy on the schedule so a
loss here to Memphis makes the rest of the season “squeaky bum time”. Watch
this one because you’re looking at one of the best divisional battles in the
country.
Oregon
at USC (7:00 pm, FOX)
Oregon
keeps getting by, by the hair of their chinny chin chins. Unfortunately for Ducks’
fans it looks like Cristobal may cost them a win they desperately need, and a
game like this, in primetime, on the road, against a USC team that can take advantage
of defensive mistakes is where mismanagement of a game you should never loose
costs you everything.
Virginia
at North Carolina (6:30 pm, ACC Network)
This
game matters and that’s a shame. In fact, the winner of this is a game to a
game and a half up on everyone in the Coastal. Keep an eye on the score of this
one but don’t watch unless the two games above it are shit, or if you have a
dog in the fight.
Cincinnati
at ECU (6:00 pm, CBSSN)
This
one’s here because Cincy needs to keep winning to stay ahead of UCF for good
and a dumb slipup leaves them in a precarious situation.
UAB
at Tennessee (6:00 pm, ESPNU)
This
one is here because even with Tennessee playing well of late this is a game
they can absolutely lose. It’s not likely to be a serious look ahead spot with
Kentucky next week but they almost certainly will be overlooking a UAB team they
should beat.
Colorado
at UCLA (8:00 pm, Pac-12 Network)
UCLA
games matter right now in the grand scheme of the Pac-12 South. They’re a game
back of both USC and Utah with both still on the schedule and though it’s
unlikely a win here against the Buffs means they’ve put themselves in a place
to play spoiler and shock the world.
Late
Night Slate (9:00 pm to 10:59 pm)
BYU
at Utah State (9:00 pm, ESPN2)
It’s
a BYU rivalry game. There will probably be a fight. And you should take the
opportunity to watch Jordan Love play for the Aggies.
Boise
State at San Jose State (9:30 pm, CBSSN)
It’s
kind of a weak late night slate so keep an eye on the Boise game if Bachmeier
isn’t back. If he is, this should be a spot to see a #MurderSmurfs game.
Fresno
State at Hawaii (10:59 pm, Facebook)
It’s
a late-night home Hawaii game, watch it it’ll probably be fun.
